LONG‐TERM CRIME DESISTANCE AND RECIDIVISM PATTERNS—EVIDENCE FROM THE ESSEX COUNTY CONVICTED FELON STUDY*

Two conflicting definitions of desistance exist in the criminology literature. The first definition is instantaneous desistance in which an offender simply chooses to end a criminal career instantaneously moving to a zero rate of offending ( Blumstein et al., 1986 ). The second definition views desistance as a process by which the offending rate declines steadily over time to zero or to a point close to zero ( Bushway et al., 2001 ; Laub and Sampson, 2001 ; Leblanc and Loeber, 1998 ). In this article, we capitalize on the underlying assumptions of several parametric survival distributions to gain a better understanding of which of these models best describes actual patterns of desistance. All models are examined using 18 years of follow‐up data on a cohort of felony convicts in Essex County, NJ. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions. First, some people have already desisted at the beginning of the follow‐up period, which is consistent with the notion of “instantaneous desistance.” Second, a three‐parameter model that allows for a turning point in the risk of recidivism followed by a long period of decline fits the data best. This conclusion suggests that for those offenders active at the start of the study period, the risk of recidivism is declining over time. However, we also find that a simpler two‐group model fits the data almost as well and gains superiority in the later years of follow‐up. This last point is particularly relevant as it suggests that the observed gradual decline in the hazard over time is a result of a compositional effect rather than of a pattern of individually declining hazards.     

The Effect of Racial Inequality on Black Male Recidivism

Macrostructural opportunity theorists posit that the unequal distribution of economic resources across racial groups promotes animosities among disadvantaged minorities, disrupts community integration, and fosters criminal activity. Guided by this framework, we hypothesize that Black ex‐prisoners who reenter communities with high levels of racial inequality are more likely to commit new crimes. Support for this argument is found for a large group of males (N = 34,868) released from state prisons to 62 counties in Florida over a 2‐year period. We also find evidence that racial inequality amplifies the adverse effects of person‐level risk factors on recidivism for Black ex‐inmates. In comparison, the effect of inequality on White male recidivism is far less meaningful. These findings underscore the need for researchers to consider social context when studying recidivism among Black males, and also support the efforts of correctional reformers who advocate for state resources to assist prisoner reentry.     

Career Dimensions of Stalking Victimization and Perpetration

Prior literature concerning stalking, particularly in the field of criminology, finds wide variation in fundamental trends regarding stalking victimization and perpetration. There seems to be little consensus regarding when and how stalking is manifested. Furthermore, prior research to date has not addressed the etiology of stalking‐related behaviors by applying principles from criminal career research, including participation, frequency, onset, and duration. The present study builds upon prior research by addressing trends in age of onset for stalking victimization and perpetration, the duration of stalking‐related behaviors, and the relationship between those behaviors and other types of crime over the life course using primary data from a sample of young adults. Findings indicate that stalking victimization and perpetration share important career attribute similarities, and that self‐reported history of intimate partner violence and sexual assault are strongly associated with stalking outcomes.     

Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats? Labor Market Changes and Their Effects on the Recidivism of Released Prisoners

The dramatic growth in incarceration nationally has increased attention to the factors that influence recidivism among ex-prisoners. Accordingly, scholars have called for research that identifies factors, such as employment opportunities, that may influence reentry experiences. Few studies, however, have examined how changes in labor market conditions affect ex-prisoner offending. Drawing on prior scholarship, this study examines the effect of such changes on the recidivism of ex-prisoners and, in particular, how the recidivism among blacks and whites may be differentially affected by changes in labor market conditions in the areas to which they return. The analyses indicate that, among black male ex-prisoners, labor market declines increase violent recidivism. They also indicate that, among white male ex-prisoners, the effects are more tenuous, influence only property recidivism, and are moderated by prior labor market conditions and criminal history. Implications of the study are discussed.     

Reentry and the Ties that Bind: An Examination of Social Ties,Employment, and Recidivism

Scholars consistently find that reentering offenders who obtain steady work and maintain social ties to family are less likely to recidivate. Some theorize that familial ties may operate through employment to influence recidivism and that such ties may also serve a moderating role. The current study employs an integrated conceptual framework in order to test hypotheses about the link between familial ties, post‐release employment, and recidivism. The findings suggest that family ties have implications for both recidivism and job attainment. In fact, the results suggest that good quality social ties may be particularly important for men with histories of frequent unemployment. The implications of these findings are discussed with regard to theory and future research on prisoner reentry and recidivism.     

Correctional outcomes of offenders with mental disorders

While there is now a considerable literature on the extent of mental disorder (MD) within correctional settings, there is much less research on the correctional outcomes of offenders with a mental disorder (OMDs). This study contributes to that knowledge base by comparing the profiles and institutional and community outcomes of federally-sentenced Canadian offenders with, and without, a MD and examines the correctional response to their management. Results showed that OMDs had higher risk and need ratings and were more likely to be serving their current sentence for a violent offense. Outcomes for OMDs were poorer as reflected by higher rates of institutional charges and transfers to segregation, and higher rates of recidivism on release. This difference holds for the recidivism analysis, even when variables related to risk are controlled. The results demonstrate the complex needs of OMDs and points to the requirement for correctional agencies to provide specialized interventions that address both their mental health and criminogenic needs. Future research is required to examine whether type of diagnosis, particularly the degree of antisocial orientation, contribute to these poorer outcomes.     

Risk Factors and Pathways to Imprisonment among Incarcerated Women in Victoria, 1860–1920

Criminological studies have found that men’s and women’s pathways to imprisonment differ, with risk factors such as substance abuse, mental illness, socioeconomic circumstances and past victimisation more strongly associated with female prisoners. However, limited quantitative or longitudinal research exists on how the risk factors associated with female offending may have shifted over time. This article investigates the criminal careers and pathways to imprisonment of 6,042 women incarcerated in Victoria between 1860 and 1920, and the risk factors associated with subsequent recidivism. The findings suggest that, while many of today’s risk factors were present historically, there have been notable shifts across time.     

DIFFERENTIATING SERIOUS ADOLESCENT OFFENDERS WHO EXIT THE JUSTICE SYSTEM FROM THOSE WHO DO NOT

Numerous factors have been posited to promote desistance from criminal offending in late adolescence and early adulthood. Research in this area has generally examined these factors for their impact on offending for a period shortly after the occurrence or shifts in possible predictors. The current study takes a slightly different approach. It examines the broad relation of life changes and developmental patterns to wholesale shifts in offending behavior. The current study uses data from the Pathways to Desistance study to compare the developmental patterns of two groups of serious adolescent male offenders: those who are “system successes” with no subsequent criminal justice system involvement and a matched sample for a 7‐year period after court involvement for a felony offense. Findings from growth curve analyses indicate that patterns of change in criminal attitudes, psychosocial development, and legal employment over this extended follow‐up period are related to an absence of offending. These results support further investigation of the synergistic effects of psychological changes and entry into the job market as possible mechanisms promoting desistance during this developmental period. The policy and practice implications of these findings are discussed.     

Desistance and Legitimacy: The Impact of Offender Notification Meetings on Recidivism among High Risk Offenders

Legitimacy-based approaches to crime prevention assume that individuals will comply with the law when they believe that the law and its agents are legitimate and act in ways that are “fair” and “just.” Currently, legitimacy-based programs are shown to lower aggregate levels of crime; yet, no study has investigated whether such programs influence individual offending. Using quasi-experimental design and survival analyses, this study evaluates the effectiveness of one such program—Chicago’s Project Safe Neighborhoods’ (PSN) Offender Notification Forums—at reducing individual recidivism among a population of returning prisoners. Results suggest that involvement in PSN significantly reduces the risk of subsequent incarceration and is associated with significantly longer intervals that offenders remain on the street and out of prison. As the first study to provide individual-level evidence promoting legitimacy-based interventions on patterns of individual offending, out study suggests these interventions can and do reduce rates of recidivism.