The attribution of responsibility in cases of stalking

There is a general belief that stranger stalkers present the greatest threat to the personal safety of victims, despite national victimisation surveys and applied research demonstrating that ex-partner stalkers are generally more persistent and violent. The just-world hypothesis offers a possible explanation for this apparent contradiction. The current research used nine hypothetical scenarios, administered to 328 university students, to investigate the assumptions that underlie attributions of responsibility in cases of stalking. It explores whether these assumptions are consistent with the proposed mechanisms of the just-world hypothesis, and whether they vary according to the nature of the perpetrator–victim relationship and conduct severity. Thematic analysis revealed that the victim was perceived to be more responsible for the situation when the perpetrator was portrayed as an ex-partner rather than a stranger or acquaintance. Furthermore, victims were perceived to be more responsible when the perpetrator's behaviour was persistent and threatening. These findings are discussed in the context of the just-world hypothesis and related to the proposed mechanisms by which a person can reinterpret a situation so that the perceived injustice disappears.     

Treatment of Gang Members Can Reduce Recidivism and Institutional Misconduct

Gang violence creates serious safety and security concerns in the community and prisons. Treated gang and nongang members recidivated significantly less in a 24-month follow-up than their untreated matched controls. Treatment consisted of high intensity cognitive-behavioral programs that follow the risk, need, and responsivity principles (Andrews & Bonta, 2003). The treated gang members who recidivated violently after treatment received significantly shorter sentences (i.e. they committed less serious offences) than their untreated matched controls. Untreated gang members had significantly higher rates of major (but not minor) institutional offences than the other three groups. Correctional treatment that follows the risk, need and responsivity principles appears able to reduce recidivism and major institutional misconduct. Effective correctional treatment should be considered as one of the approaches in the management and rehabilitation of incarcerated gang members.     

Mass Reentry,Neighborhood Context and Recidivism: Examining How the Distribution of Parolees Within and Across Neighborhoods Impacts Recidivism

Recent scholarship focuses on the role neighborhood context plays in reoffending. These studies lack an examination of how the size of the parolee population at the neighborhood-level impacts individual recidivism. We examine how the size and clustering of parolee populations within and across neighborhoods impacts individual-level recidivism. Using data from parolees returning to three Ohio cities from 2000 to 2009, we examine how concentrations of parolees in neighborhoods and in the surrounding neighborhoods impact the likelihood of reoffending. We also examine whether parolee clustering conditions the relationship between neighborhood-level characteristics and recidivism. Results show concentrated reentry increases recidivism, while parolees in stable neighborhoods are less likely to recidivate. Also, the positive effect of parolee concentration is tempered when parolees return to stable neighborhoods. These findings suggest that augmenting resources available in neighborhoods saturated by parolees, as well as bolstering residential stability in these same neighborhoods might reduce reoffending.     

Variations in the Recidivism of Treated and Nontreated Sexual Offenders in New Jersey: An Examination of Three Time Frames

This study examines the recidivism of sexual offenders in New Jersey at three different time intervals: three years, five years, and ten years after release from prison. The sample is comprised of sexual offenders released from the general prison population (untreated sample, n = 150) and the Adult Diagnostic and Treatment Center (ADTC) (treated sample, n = 150), a sex offender specific facility. The goals of this study were twofold: (1) to identify the recidivism rates of sexual offenders and to determine whether sexual offenders who receive treatment demonstrate lower levels of recidivism and (2) to examine whether differences in recidivism exist among the varying time frames and offender subtypes. The results indicate that treated sex offenders maintained decreased nonsexual recidivism rates. Additionally, offenders who committed acts of rape and offenders followed up after six years had increased rates of recidivism.     

Improving impact evaluations through randomised experiments: The challenge of the National Research Council report for European criminology

The National Research Council (NRC) report on Improving Evaluation of Anticrime Programs presents and discusses a wide array of techniques of evaluation. Although recognising the very high internal validity of randomised experiments, it considers, under certain conditions, quasi-experiments and observational studies as equally valid approaches. This conclusion is critically reviewed from a European perspective, where only a few randomised trials have been realised so far. It is argued that many critiques routinely addressed to randomised experiments, such as ethical concerns or low acceptance among practitioners, are either unfounded or can be adequately dealt with through imaginative adjustments. On the other hand, randomised controlled trials need to take the challenge of broadening the perspective, especially by looking at long-term effects that no other method can consider with comparable internal validity. Other recommendations include using innovative measures of re-offending, considering dynamic rather than static criteria of re-offending, and looking, beyond re-offending, at rehabilitation in other areas of life. Particular challenges are the possible placebo effects that evaluators in criminal justice have not yet found appropriate ways to deal with.

Ex-offender employment programs and recidivism: A meta-analysis

One consequence of the tremendous growth in the number of persons under supervision of the criminal justice system, whether incarcerated, on parole, or on probation, is the effect of this criminal history on finding and keeping a job. Ex-offenders, especially those recently released from prison, face substantial barriers to many types of legal employment; nonetheless, stable employment is one of the best predictors of post-release success. Thus, policy-makers concerned about high recidivism rates face an obvious need to improve the employment prospects of ex-offenders. Over the last 25 years, many programs that were designed to increase employment (and, by so doing, reduce recidivism) among ex-offenders have been implemented and evaluated. [Wilson, D. B., Gallagher, C. A., Coggeshall, M. B. & MacKenzie, D. L. (1999). Corrections Management Quarterly 3(4), 8–18; Wilson, D. B., Gallagher, C. A. & MacKenzie, D. L. (2000). Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 37(4), 347–368] conducted a quantitative synthesis and meta-analysis of 33 evaluations of educational, vocational, and work programs for persons in correctional facilities. To date, however, the evaluation literature on employment programs for those with a criminal record who are not in custody has not been systematically reviewed. This paper presents the results of a quantitative meta-analysis of eight random assignment studies of such programs, using the Campbell Collaboration methodology. The results indicate that this group of community employment programs for ex-offenders did not reduce recidivism; however, the experimental design research on this question is small and does not include some of the promising community employment programs that have emerged in the last decade.     

Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

Estimating the numbers of prison terms in criminal careers from one-step probabilities of recidivism

A method of using estimates of one-step probabilities of recidivism, i.e., conditional probabilities of individuals returning to prison for the jth time given release for the (j-1)st time, to estimate the numbers of prison terms expected to be accumulated by the individuals, is presented. The method is illustrated by calculating the expected numbers of prison terms separately for racial and gender groups in a large data base of Western Australian prisoners. The recidivism probabilities for these data were estimated by fitting Weibull mixture models to the (possibly censored) times to recidivate. The probabilities increase strongly asj increases from 1 to 6, then level off. Large differences between them are due to racial and gender group and these are reflected in the differing expected prison career durations for these groups. The effect of interventions which might lower recidivism is discussed in the light of the method as applied to these estimates.