Disseminating Public Data as Public Use Files: What Makes a Successful Initiative?

The current policy emphasis on data-driven decision-making is creating the right incentives for government agencies around the world that have not traditionally disseminated their administrative data to do so. The literature on statistical disclosure control focuses on the technical aspects of a variety of methods designed to protect data confidentiality. There is, however, a void in the literature in regard to what other elements are necessary to create and sustain a successful initiative. This paper examines six case studies of individual-level datasets. It reviews current practice in several domains and summarizes recommendations from expert practitioners including challenges for future initiatives.     

International Signaling and Economic Sanctions

Do economic sanctions serve international signaling purposes? A fully structural statistical model that employs a signaling game as a statistical model is used to investigate the existence of signaling effects of sanctions. Estimation results suggest that sanctions fail to work as a costly signal. The cheapness of sanctions prevents a target state from being able to distinguish a resolute sender state from a sender who is bluffing. When sanctions are imposed, a target rarely updates its initial evaluation of the sender state’s resolve, much less than when a military challenge is observed.     

Angular Determination of Toolmarks Using a Computer‐Generated Virtual Tool

A blind study to determine whether virtual toolmarks created using a computer could be used to identify and characterize angle of incidence of physical toolmarks was conducted. Six sequentially manufactured screwdriver tips and one random screwdriver were used to create toolmarks at various angles. An apparatus controlled tool angle. Resultant toolmarks were randomly coded and sent to the researchers, who scanned both tips and toolmarks using an optical profilometer to obtain 3D topography data. Developed software was used to create virtual marks based on the tool topography data. Virtual marks generated at angles from 30 to 85° (5° increments) were compared to physical toolmarks using a statistical algorithm. Twenty of twenty toolmarks were correctly identified by the algorithm. On average, the algorithm misidentified the correct angle of incidence by ?6.12°. This study presents the results, their significance, and offers reasons for the average angular misidentification.     

刑事案件立案统计不实问题探析

刑事案件立案统计不实是当前影响科学判断社会治安形势的重要因素之一,并在一定程度上影响了制定打击刑事犯罪的决策,因此,在当前和今后一个时期仍应把纠正刑事案件立案不实问题作为一项重点工作来抓,推动公安工作的良性发展。     

Predicting the postmortem interval using human intestinal microbiome data and random forest algorithm

Gradual changes in microbial communities in a human body after death can be used to determine postmortem interval (PMI). In this study, gut microflora samples were collected from the vermiform appendix and the transverse colon of human cadavers with PMIs between 5 and 192 h. The results revealed that the appendix might be an excellent intestinal sampling site and the appendix flora had an inferred succession rule during human body decomposition. Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, and their respective subclasses showed a predictable succession rule in relative abundance over time. A Random Forest regression model was developed to correlate human gut microbiota with PMI. We believe that our findings have increased the knowledge of the composition and abundance of the gut microbiota in human corpses, and suggest that the use of the human appendix microbial succession may be a potential method for forensic estimation of the time of death.     

Effect of Substrate Interferences from High‐Density Polyethylene on Association of Simulated Ignitable Liquid Residues with the Corresponding Liquid

The effect of substrate interferences from high‐density polyethylene (HDPE) on the ability to associate an ignitable liquid residue with the corresponding liquid standard, using statistical procedures, is demonstrated. Gasoline, kerosene, and lighter fluid, at three different evaporation levels, were spiked onto HDPE and subsequently burned to generate simulated ignitable liquid residues (ILRs). Samples were extracted using a passive headspace procedure and analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. The total ion chromatograms were subjected to data pretreatment procedures prior to principal components analysis and Pearson product moment correlation. Using the combination of these statistical procedures, simulated ILRs were successfully associated with the corresponding liquid type, despite the presence of compounds inherent to the HDPE substrate, as well as those resulting from pyrolysis of the substrate.     

The Sources of Pension Reforms in Western Europe: Domestic Factors,Policy Diffusion,or Common Shock?

Existing research has linked the adoption of pension reforms to demographic pressures, party ideology, and the diffusion of social policy ideas. We argue that pension policy change in Western Europe is also related to the “shock” of European Monetary Union (EMU). We use a Spatial Autoregressive Probit model with event-history features to test whether the decision to reform can be best explained by domestic factors, diffusion dynamics, or similar exposure to a common shock. We find that EMU made pension reform more likely for low and moderately indebted countries in the early 1990s but delayed reform in the late 1990s. Demographic pressures and policy diffusion also mattered for reform adoption, but not more than the EMU shock.     

Analysis of the Effects and Relationship of Perceived Handwritten Signature's Size,Graphical Complexity,and Legibility with Dynamic Parameters for Forged and Genuine Samples

This article presents an analysis of handwritten signature dynamics belonging to two authentication groups, namely genuine and forged signature samples. Genuine signatures are initially classified based on their relative size, graphical complexity, and legibility as perceived by human examiners. A pool of dynamic features is then extracted for each signature sample in the two groups. A two‐way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is carried out to investigate the effects and the relationship between the perceived classifications and the authentication groups. Homogeneity of variance was ensured through Bartlett's test prior to ANOVA testing. The results demonstrated that among all the investigated dynamic features, pen pressure is the most distinctive which is significantly different for the two authentication groups as well as for the different perceived classifications. In addition, all the relationships investigated, namely authenticity group versus size, graphical complexity, and legibility, were found to be positive for pen pressure.     

混合STR分型分析方法研究进展

混合STR分型的解释及分析一直是国际上法医物证领域研究的热点和难点。随着DNA检验技术的发展,案件中检出的混合STR分型呈现出模板量降低以及混合组分数增加的趋势,其解释变得愈加复杂,传统的人工分析方法已难以满足现实要求。近几年国外基于统计算法模型的自动化软件解析方法渐趋成为混合STR分型分析的主要方法。本文综述了混合STR分型分析方法的相关研究进展,包括人工为主的定性分析方法以及基于统计模型的基因型概率分析方法;讨论了混合STR分型分析方法的未来发展趋势以及人工智能技术的应用前景。