Why Target the “Good Guys”? The Determinants of Terrorism Against NGOs

Why would a terrorist group target nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)? We theorize that certain types of NGOs, namely those using mainly nonviolent pressure to advocate for changes in government human rights practices, influence the behaviors of potential terrorist group supporters in ways not liked by terrorist organizations. These advocacy-based human rights NGOs make terrorism attacks against the whole NGO sector more likely by changing the dynamics of terrorist-domestic audience relations in ways that threaten to limit audience support of terrorist groups. Other types of NGOs, especially those that do not have an advocacy focus, are less likely to directly challenge the terrorist organization or the state and can provide resources utilized by terrorist groups and potential sympathizers. Thus, their presence would not increase the likelihood of any NGO-targeted terrorist attacks. A global test of these dynamics supports our basic hypotheses.     

录音设备识别司法鉴定技术研究

目标随着手机和录音笔等数字录音设备的普及,数字录音已基本取代传统的模拟录音,成为录音司法鉴定主导性检材类型。数字录音资料作为视听资料的重要组成部分,其真实性司法鉴定新技术新方法的研究具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。方法研究基于录音设备识别的数字录音真实性鉴定技术,通过数字录音背景噪声片段的提取,计算录音设备相关的关键统计特征,包括采样直方图分布特征和平均频谱统计特征,并使用机器学习和模式分类方法对数字录音的载体即录音设备进行准确分类。结果实验中最高的分类准确性达到97.09%。在录音设备可分性研究成果基础上,提出应用于数字录音设备司法鉴定的可行实施方案。结论研究结果表明了基于信号统计特征分析的录音设备识别方法的可行性和准确性。     

台湾地区科技统计体系及特征分析

科技统计数据是认识一个地区科技发展特征的重要载体.20世纪80年代初期,台湾地区建立了科技统计工作制度.如今,台湾的科技统计工作既符合OECD制定的统计规范,又具有自身特点,为公众了解台湾科技发展和当局制定科技政策提供了翔实的数据.本文在分析科技统计基本职能和世界科技统计发展态势基础上,对台湾的科技统计工作体系和工作流程进行了详细介绍,总结了台湾科技统计的四个典型特征,提出了对大陆科技统计工作的若干启示,并对开展两岸科技统计合作进行了展望.     

关于旅游统计的几点思考

旅游统计对各级政府的作用,主要是描述旅游发展态势、旅游业与其它产业发展的关系、旅游发展对旅游公共服务的需求程度等。旅游统计需要先解决两个问题:其一是旅游统计的口径问题,其二是旅游统计数据的取得问题。笔者建议国家旅游局和国家统计局将年末就业人口数指标列入旅游统计体系,并使之成为核心指标。     

人工智能时代的算法规制:责任分层与义务合规

通过云端搜集、校勘、分析海量大数据,独立法律人格待定的智能机器人,透过算法活动,在多个行业替代自然人从事高精尖业务并重塑人们的社会评价、权利义务及法律责任。算法活动以“信义义务”为核心调整传统受托人关系以及基于合同相对性进行损害赔偿,传统制度已不能完全囊括智能主体理应承担的所有义务,导致算法操纵、信息寻租和监管套利的三重失控,凸显人工智能产业布局中的法律规范缺位;算法妨害具有公共属性,穿透技术黑箱对合同之外的普罗大众造成“公共滋扰”,法律应当为不同潜在责任主体创设不同缺省合规义务,引导算法运营商、技术开发方内部化不合理社会成本,以构建人工智能责任体系的中国标准。     

Differentiation of unevaporated gasoline samples according to their brands, by SPME-GC-MS and multivariate statistical analysis

One of the aims of fire investigations is to identify associations among accelerants according to their source. In this study, 50 gasoline samples--representing five brands--were analyzed using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Chemometric procedures, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant analysis (DA), were applied to a data matrix obtained by the target compound chromatogram method, to discriminate samples according to their brand. PCA was successful in finding a natural grouping of samples according to their brand, suggesting that aromatic compounds were more useful than aliphatics for the purpose of this study. DA, if applied to aromatic compounds, gave both a classification ability and a prediction ability of 100%. The outstanding results obtained by this work provide the basis of a data matrix that could be used in real cases of arson to link a sample of unevaporated gasoline to its brand or refinery.     

Adapting the Chumbley Score to Match Striae on Land Engraved Areas (LEAs) of Bullets,

The same‐source problem remains a major challenge in forensic toolmark and firearm examination. Here, we investigate the applicability of the Chumbley method (J Forensic Sci, 2018, 63, 849; J Forensic Sci, 2010, 55, 953) (10,12), developed for screwdriver markings, for same‐source identification of striations on bullet LEAs. The Hamby datasets 44 and 252 measured by NIST and CSAFE (high‐resolution scans) are used here. We provide methods to identify parameters that minimize error rates for matching of LEAs, and a remedial algorithm to alleviate the problem of failed tests, while increasing the power of the test and reducing error rates. For 85,491 land‐to‐land comparisons (84,235 known nonmatches and 1256 known matches), the adapted test does not provide a result in 176 situations (originally more than 500). The Type I and Type II error rates are 7.2% (6105 out of 84,235) and 21.4% (271 out of 1256), respectively. This puts the proposed method on similar footing as other single‐feature matching approaches in the literature.     

Statistical Modeling of the Case Information From the Ohio Attorney General's Sexual Assault Kit Testing Initiative

The Ohio Attorney General's Sexual Assault Kit (SAK) Testing Initiative has resulted in nearly 14,000 kits being processed since the initiation of the project in 2012. A logistic regression model was fit to the data from 2500 SAKs in order to determine the probability of obtaining at least one Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) eligible DNA profile based on a number of predictor variables. The probability of obtaining at least one CODIS eligible DNA profile from an SAK varied as a function of (i) days to kit collection following a sexual assault; (ii) years to kit submission to the laboratory for testing following kit collection; (iii) the age of the victim; and (iv) the occurrence of victim‐reported consensual sex around the time of the assault and/or kit collection. These findings demonstrate the utility of the statistical modeling of data obtained from the “forklift” testing approach of sexual assault kits.     

Contactless Visualization of Latent Fingerprints on Nonporous Curved Surfaces of Circular Cross Section—A Statistical Evaluation on the Materials as Plane Mirror

A new contactless technique for latent fingerprint visualization on nonporous curved surfaces of circular cross section was introduced by Low et al. (1). The technique utilizes a plane mirror to convey the light rays toward the inspected surfaces for latent fingerprint visualization. This research activity came up as an extension of the previous study which utilized an aluminum plate as the plane mirror to illuminate the inspected surfaces. Dulling spray was used to increase the diffuse component of the reflective aluminum plate. However, the amount of dulling spray will affect the uniformity of the illumination on the inspected curved surfaces. In this study, a study on the new materials for the plane mirror was carried out. Coated aluminum, opal, and ground glass diffusers were selected as the new materials. The performance of the new materials was compared to the aluminum based on the quality of the captured images on various nonporous cylindrical surfaces. A statistical approach known as randomized complete block design was used to design the experiment. The quality of the captured images was obtained using Spectral Image Validation and Verification. Two‐way analysis of variance and Fisher's least significant difference test were used to analyze the quality of the images. From the results of the statistical analysis, coated aluminum has the best performance compared to aluminum, opal, and ground glass diffusers.     

有关社会犯罪数量分析的研究

基于犯罪定量学的研究机理,文章探讨了犯罪系统分析中的数学建模方法,提出了对犯罪系统进行数量分析要注重经验模型和机理模型。运用效用理论建立了宏观犯罪管理模型,同时,运用贝叶斯原理分析了犯罪行为的数量表达方法。研究表明,用定量的方法研究社会犯罪性质与特征,关键问题是犯罪统计规律的可靠性与参变量的选择。