大连地区故意杀人案件的犯罪学统计分析

近几年我国命案（指故意杀人、故意伤害致死和爆炸、投毒、放火、抢劫、强奸、绑架致人死亡8类案件）的发案率有上升的趋势,而故意杀人案件的发案率又居命案之首,因此,对故意杀人案件进行犯罪学研究对于控制命案发案率、构建社会主义和谐社会,既具有深刻的理论意义又具有重要的现实意义。文章通过对故意杀人案件进行犯罪学统计分析,揭示了当前故意杀人犯罪的特点及规律,并尝试提出预防犯罪的对策与策略。     

Quantitative evaluation of the results of digital forensic investigations: a review of progress

Unlike conventional forensics, digital forensics does not at present generally quantify the results of its investigations. It is suggested that digital forensics should aim to catch up with other forensic disciplines by using Bayesian and other numerical methodologies to quantify its investigations’ results. Assessing the plausibility of alternative hypotheses (or propositions, or claims) which explain how recovered digital evidence came to exist on a device could assist both the prosecution and the defence sides in criminal proceedings: helping the prosecution to decide whether to proceed to trial and helping defence lawyers to advise a defendant how to plead. This paper reviews some numerical approaches to the goal of quantifying the relative weights of individual items of digital evidence and the plausibility of hypotheses based on that evidence. The potential advantages enabling the construction of cost-effective digital forensic triage schemas are also outlined.

Key points

• The absence of quantified results from digital forensic investigations, unlike those of conventional forensics, is highlighted.
• A number of approaches towards quantitative evaluation of the results of digital forensic investigations are reviewed.
• The significant potential benefits accruing from such approaches are discussed.

     

老年人笔迹变化的形成原因和特点

世界人口老龄化发展的历史表明,人口老龄化对人类社会生活的各个方面都会产生重大的影响。因此,研究老年人笔迹特点及其变化规律对于老年人笔迹鉴定具有理论指导意义和实用价值。根据老年人笔迹变化的形成原因和对老年人笔迹的实验统计分析,包括横向分析、纵向分析、病理性变化的分析,得出了老年人笔迹的特点。     

智能投顾的功能定位与监管进路

智能投顾是涵盖投资管理全价值链的服务模式,融合广义智能化投资顾问的各项特征,并有所延展,具有个性设计、风险分散、理性决策、平衡调整的功能优势。实践中,智能投顾面临合规风险、画像风险、算法风险、信用风险等方面的功能异化。由于概念界定和市场环境的不同,我国智能投顾的监管无法复制美国的模式,应当走本土化道路,注重从功能的角度进行穿透式监管。具体路径包括分类实施准入监管,推进放开综合账户;严格把关问卷设计,加强提高风险意识;有效开展算法监控,探索构建试错机制;明确强化信息披露,合理考量责任追究。     

Battles over numbers: the case of the Argentine consumer price index (2007–2015)

An unprecedented crisis of confidence in Argentina's public statistics rendered the declaration of a ‘National Statistical Emergency’ in 2016. This paper examines the battle over the Argentine consumer price index (CPI) between 2007 and 2015. It argues that in this dispute the index became the object of political struggle rather than a methodological controversy. The main characteristics of the Argentine CPI, its trajectory and the country’s inflationary history influenced the type of debate and the dispute that was possible and feasible. The battle was linked to the erosion of confidence in and social support for official statistics and to the emergence of alternative price indices. Both processes seriously undermined the government's ability to control inflation.     

算法社会下个人信息保护的难题

算法的大规模应用给人类生活带了前所未有的便捷,智能产品、智能搜索和导航、个性化的定制服务、精确的推荐等等。我们在享受如此高效便捷的同时,不免担心随之而来的诸如APP窃听、信息泄露、算法歧视等问题。传统法律制度下关于个人信息保护之规定已经不能满足社会变化所带来的新的需要。完善法律规定,建立“算法+专门机构”的双重监督模式,同时加强公民个人信息保护意识,才能更好地适应社会新变化。     

A mathematical approach to NAND flash-memory descrambling and decoding

New mathematical techniques for analysis of raw dumps of NAND flash memory were developed. These techniques are aimed at detecting, by analysis of the raw NAND flash dump only, the use of LFSR-based scrambling and the use of a binary cyclic code for error-correction. If detected, parameter values for both LFSR and cyclic error-correcting code are determined simultaneously. These can subsequently be applied to expose the content of memory pages in the raw NAND flash dump and prepare these for further processing with media analysis tools. The techniques were tested on raw NAND flash memory dumps of four different devices and in all cases LFSR-based scrambling and binary cyclic error-correcting codes were in use.     

Identifying reliable ions for the statistical differentiation of structurally similar fentanyl analogs

Definitive identification of fentanyl analogs based on mass spectral comparison is challenging given the high degree of structural and, hence, spectral similarity. To address this, a statistical method was previously developed in which two electron-ionization (EI) mass spectra are compared using the unequal variance t-test. Normalized intensities of corresponding ions are compared, testing the null hypothesis (H₀) that the difference in intensity is equal to zero. If H₀ is accepted at all m/z values, the two spectra are statistically equivalent at the specified confidence level. If H₀ is not accepted at any m/z value, then there is a significant difference in intensity at that m/z value between the two spectra. In this work, the statistical comparison method is applied to distinguish EI spectra of valeryl fentanyl, isovaleryl fentanyl, and pivaloyl fentanyl. Spectra of the three analogs were collected over a 9-month period and at different concentrations. At the 99.9% confidence level, the spectra of corresponding isomers were statistically associated. Spectra of different isomers were statistically distinct, and ions responsible for discrimination were identified in each comparison. To account for inherent instrument variations, discriminating ions for each pairwise comparison were ranked based on the magnitude of the calculated t-statistic (t_calc) value. For a given comparison, ions with higher t_calc values are those with the greatest difference in intensity between the two spectra and, therefore, are considered more reliable for discrimination. Using these methods, objective discrimination among the spectra was achieved and ions considered most reliable for discrimination of these isomers were identified.     

Unjustified inferences about meta-analysis

Berk (Statistical Inference and Meta-Analysis, 2007) asserts that the results of inferential statistics make scientific sense only if the data to which they are applied were actually generated through random sampling from a defined real population. Because meta-analysis data are not generated in that manner, he claims that the statistical conclusions of meta-analysis are fictional and suggests that conventional research review procedures be used instead. This rejoinder argues that Berk’s position on statistical inference represents a narrow literalism that he fails to justify and that does not reflect the way inferential statistics are used or generally understood in contemporary practice. Consequently, his critique has little significance for meta-analysis or any of the other widespread forms of social science research that apply inferential statistics in similar spirit. Berk’s advocacy of conventional literature reviews omits any explanation of how they would avoid the well-documented deficiencies of that approach or be conducted in a manner that offers any advantage over meta-analysis.