The Dynamics of Mass Killings: Testing Time-Series Models of One-Sided Violence in the Bosnian Civil War

Many observers contend that wartime civilian victimization is an instrument of political leaders to achieve a particular goal. This article examines whether retaliation for similar acts by the other side, the developments on the battlefield, or the behavior of international actors accounts for the ups and downs of this so-called one-sided violence. Using information from the Konstanz One-Sided Violence Event Dataset and other sources, we evaluate the empirical relevance of these complementary models statistically. Time series analyses of the weekly number of killed and harmed Muslims (Bosniacs) and Serbs during the Bosnian civil war support the military and the massacre logic. We show that the Serbian side decreased one-sided violence following a territorial conquest, but that its one-sided violence was not a reciprocal response to the Bosniac targeting of civilians. Conversely, the Bosniac side resorted to violence during times of increasing Serbian atrocities and when the fighting was particularly intense. The analysis reveals that most international interventions did not reduce the carnage, but that the Serbs responded to Russian moves.     

Facilitating Help Seeking Behavior and Referrals for Mental Health Difficulties in School Aged Boys and Girls: A School-Based Intervention

Although the need for early intervention for mental health difficulties is widely acknowledged, few studies have attempted to explicitly increase actual help seeking behavior for mental health difficulties. Students in intervention classrooms received two one-hour, in-class workshops on distress and help seeking and were compared to students in non-intervention classrooms in a 2-level hierarchical model. More frequent help seeking behavior and more mental health referrals were observed among students in the intervention group than among students in the comparison group. Effects were moderated by the level of distress experienced by students, but not by help seeking attitudes, and could not be accounted for by school staff referrals or website utilization. Results showed that help seeking behavior for mental health difficulties and mental health referrals can be increased with only a moderate investment in time, but that benefits of school-based intervention may be greatest among students with specific needs, such as high levels of distress.

Simulation for Theory Testing and Experimentation: An Example Using Routine Activity Theory and Street Robbery

Achieving a better understanding of the crime event in its spatio-temporal context is an important research area in criminology with major implications for improving policy and developing effective crime prevention strategies. However, significant barriers related to data and methods exist for conducting this type of research. The research requires micro-level data about individual behavior that is difficult to obtain and methods capable of modeling the dynamic, spatio-temporal interaction of offenders, victims, and potential guardians at the micro level. This paper presents simulation modeling as a method for addressing these challenges. Specifically, agent-based modeling, when integrated with geographic information systems, offers the ability to model individual behavior within a real environment. The method is demonstrated by operationalizing and testing routine activity theory as it applies to the crime of street robbery. Model results indicate strong support for the basic premise of routine activity theory; as time spent away from home increases, crime will increase. The strength of the method is in providing a research platform for translating theory into models that can be discussed, shared, tested and enhanced with the goal of building scientific knowledge.

Testing the Use of Pigs as Human Proxies in Decomposition Studies

Pigs are a common human analogue in taphonomic study, yet data comparing the trajectory of decomposition between the two groups are lacking. This study compared decomposition rate and gross tissue change in 17 pigs and 22 human remains placed in the Forensic Investigation Research Station in western Colorado between 2012 and 2015. Accumulated degree days (ADD) were used to assess the number of thermal units required to reach a given total body score (TBS) (1) which was used as the measure of decomposition. A comparison of slopes in linear mixed effects model indicated that decomposition rates significantly differed between human donors and pig remains χ²₍₁₎ = 5.662, p = 0.017. Neither the pig nor the human trajectory compared well to the TBS model. Thus, (i) pigs are not an adequate proxy for human decomposition studies, and (ii) in the semiarid environment of western Colorado, there is a need to develop a regional decomposition model.     

Representative Democracy and Fighting Domestic Terrorism

Does more representative government improve states' ability to fight domestic terrorism? In prior work, democracies are seen as more susceptible to terrorism because their respect for human rights prevents them from fully eliminating terrorist groups. However, such extrajudicial aggression could also alienate large portions of the population and create the ideal conditions for an insurgency. I argue that since terrorism is the lowest-capacity form of political violence, it is natural that states that do best at deterring political violence experience the most terrorism. While representative democracies should see terrorist groups initiate spells of attacks at a greater frequency, full political representation should also galvanize major political actors to unite and eliminate terrorist threats. I test this assertion through statistical models that treat the process of terrorist group initiation and its duration and intensity separately. Results not only show that less consolidated democracies and autocracies experience longer and more intense terrorist campaigns, but that, in support of the theory's mechanisms, groups are more likely to shift to terrorism from insurgency when their political base gains more political representation. The results call the division among research programs of various political violence types into question.     

EQUALITY,DIGNITY, AND SOCIAL HARMONY: EXPLORING THE RATIONALES AND MODELS FOR RECOGNIZING SAME-SEX RELATIONSHIPS IN LAW

One of the major changes that has taken place over the past twenty to thirty years has been the extension of the legal recognition and protections for same-sex relationships in a wide range of countries. A number of jurisdictions, including China, are considering the approach that they will adopt. This article seeks firstly to consider the justifications for the legal recognition of same-sex relationships by the state. Three main, compelling rationales are identified which are rooted in notions of the equality of all persons, the dignity and liberty of individuals to form close personal relationships, and the social benefits of recognizing close, personal relationships of same-sex couples. The second part of this article then turns to consider the manner in which same-sex relationships should be recognized. Four models are identified: a “Partial Rights” model; a “Civil Partnerships” model; a “Marriage Equality” model, and a “Diversity of Relationships” model. Reasons for and against these particular models will be examined. In the conclusion, it shall be argued that the choice of model that has been adopted can be seen to depend on a number of factors: the manner in which equality is conceived in that society; the understanding of same-sex relationships therein, and the religious and cultural opposition to same-sex relationships in that society. The models are also not states of affairs that are fixed for all time and many countries have progressed from less extensive forms of recognition to wider recognition over time. Ultimately, it shall be argued that the rationales underlying the recognition of close personal relationships in the law support the “Marriage Equality” model or the “Diversity of Relationships” model. This article thus seeks to provide an understanding of the rationales and models for recognizing same-sex relationships that have been adopted around the world: Its focus is thus comparative but may, in this way, be useful to lawmakers and advocates for legal reform in this area in China and other jurisdictions around the world.     

THE IMPACT OF BRITISH COUNTERTERRORIST STRATEGIES ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND: COMPARING DETERRENCE AND BACKLASH MODELS*

Since philosophers Beccaria and Bentham, criminologists have been concerned with predicting how governmental attempts to maintain lawful behavior affect subsequent rates of criminal violence. In this article, we build on prior research to argue that governmental responses to a specific form of criminal violence—terrorism—may produce both a positive deterrence effect (i.e., reducing future incidence of prohibited behavior) and a negative backlash effect (i.e., increasing future incidence of prohibited behavior). Deterrence‐based models have long dominated both criminal justice and counterterrorist policies on responding to violence. The models maintain that an individual's prohibited behavior can be altered by the threat and imposition of punishment. Backlash models are more theoretically scattered but receive mixed support from several sources, which include research on counterterrorism; the criminology literature on labeling, legitimacy, and defiance; and the psychological literature on social power and decision making. In this article, we identify six major British strategies aimed at reducing political violence in Northern Ireland from 1969 to 1992 and then use a Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the impact of these interventions on the risk of new attacks. In general, we find the strongest support for backlash models. The only support for deterrence models was a military surge called Operation Motorman, which was followed by significant declines in the risk of new attacks. The results underscore the importance of considering the possibility that antiterrorist interventions might both increase and decrease subsequent violence.     

Overlapping polarization: On the contextual determinants of the interplay between ideological and affective polarization

Previous literature has distinguished two types of polarization: ideological and affective. However, little is known on how the interconnection of these two polarizations (which we call overlapping polarization) varies depending on the political context. Is affective polarization always associated with ideological polarization? What is the role of the institutional framework (i.e., democratic age and popular election of the head of state) and the party system (i.e., elite polarization and number of parties) in determining how wide this overlap is? This article examines the contextual determinants of overlapping polarization by using information from the four first CSES waves. According to our analyses, the individual-level positive effect of ideological polarization on affective polarization is stronger when the party system is ideologically polarized and in older democracies, and is weaker in presidential democracies and when the number of parties is higher.     

Generational replacement and Green party support in Western Europe

Over the past decades, electoral support for Green parties has gradually increased in Western Europe, especially among young people. This begs the question whether there are systematic differences between generations in support for Green parties, and whether there are also life-cycle effects. We answer this question by separating age, period and cohort effects on Green party support using CSES data covering 40 elections in 11 Western European countries. We find that when controlling for period and age, each new generation is more supportive of the Greens than the generation before. We also find negative age effects. While Green parties can expect to benefit in the future from generational replacement, the consequences of aging societies are to their disadvantage.     

The role of mitigation and strengthening cognitive operations in brand names design: a case study of Spanish and American wine brands

Despite the relevance of powerful brands in the present-day market, research on the process of brand name design from a cognitive perspective focuses almost exclusively on the effects of the use of conceptual metaphor, and to a lesser extent, metonymy, overlooking the role played by other cognitive strategies. This paper analyzes the potentiality of mitigation and strengthening cognitive operations as tools for the systematic, risk-free design of new brand names with highly predictable and felicitous connotations. In particular, it focuses on their role in the systematic generation of axiologically positive brands in both Spanish and American wine labels, thus largely reducing the need for the costly and time-consuming cultural checks that branding companies need to run on new brand names before their commercial launching. In so doing, the interaction of the two aforementioned cognitive operations with a number of pragmatic principles and cultural models of social interaction, and their subservience to other cognitive operations, like those of comparison, correlation, and domain expansion and reduction, are also considered. The results of the study offer new insights on the semantics of commercial brand names which should prove useful for branding professionals, as well as data of interest to linguists dealing with inter-linguistic issues and cognitive modeling alike.