Desistance or Displacement? The Changing Patterns of Offending from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

Research has devoted substantial attention to patterns of offending during the transition to early adulthood. While changes in offending rates are extensively researched, considerably less attention is devoted to shifts in the type of offending displayed during the transition to adulthood. Changes in the type of offending behavior suggest a pattern of “displacement” or shifts between various types of crime, rather than desistance from deviant behavior. In this paper, I integrate methods previously developed in stratification research and use longitudinal data from the National Survey of Youth that span the transition to adulthood to examine the extent to which desistance and displacement of deviant behavior are defining attributes of offending during the transition to early adulthood. The findings indicate that while desistance is clearly present, altering patterns of offending, or within-person displacement, rather than termination of illicit activity is most evident in the data.

让“标杆成为标准,示范成为规范”的实践路径思考

"让标杆成为标准,示范成为规范"是发挥典型示范效应的目标要求,也是选树宣传典型的根本目的所在。如何"让标杆成为标准,示范成为规范",是宣传思想文化工作面临的新课题,需要扎实做好实践路径研究。坚持"三个注重"选树典型,发挥"三个作用"培养典型,把握"三个环节"宣传典型是胜利油田思想文化工作趟出的新路子。     

Ageing and generational effects on vote choice: Combining cross-sectional and panel data to estimate APC effects

This paper examines how ageing and generational formative experiences affect vote choices in Britain. Using a combination of panel data and assumptions about party fortunes we estimate ageing effects. These are then entered into a model using cross-sectional data from 1964 to 2010 to estimate generational differences in vote choice. Ageing increases the likelihood of a Conservative vote substantially, but there is no trend towards lower rates of Conservative voting among newer generations. There are however identifiable political generations corresponding with periods of Conservative dominance: voters who came of age in the 1930s, 1950s and 1980s are ceteris paribus somewhat more Conservative. Our method therefore lends some support to theories of political generations, but also demonstrates the considerable impact of ageing on vote choice.     

Ethel Bright Ashford: more and less than a role model

ABSTRACT

There is a tendency to position the first women lawyers as role models for today’s young women. This article argues, through an exploration of the life and career of Ethel Bright Ashford, that these women are better recognised as pioneers or foremothers than promoted as role models. Ashford was one of the first women barristers, a long-serving borough councillor, and tireless activist for civic causes. Nonetheless, aspects of her career and politics pose problems for purely celebratory accounts. Yet there is real value in considering her biography: she offers both an alternative definition of a successful professional life and the reassurance that imperfection is not equivalent to failure. Ashford therefore illustrates the vital importance of a more nuanced and historically situated consideration of the first women lawyers.     

Thoughts on Juvenile Justice Systems and Research

This article updates comments published in this journal in 1994 about the nature of the American juvenile justice system, which laid out reasons that it might not serve as a useful model for other nations. Since that time, the US system has moved further right towards the justice model and away from the welfare model. Individualistic philosophies and political conservatism have combined to produce a more adult-like and punitive juvenile system, applied to increasing numbers of minors and to increasingly younger minors. Successful demonstrations of community absorption or treatment have been too few to balance the rightward direction. European scholars are urged to undertake increased studies in two critical areas: (1) the nature, functions, and comparative differences in their juvenile justice systems, and (2) the nature of local communities and their contributions to patterns of delinquency.     

Marketing in Emerging Market Economies

This paper presents a literature review on the marketing concepts and strategies applied in the emerging economies. The focus of the research was the stage of development and the application of marketing principles in emerging economies, with an emphasis in specific countries, cultures and industries concerned. Issues such as marketing research and its implementation, marketing opportunities, role of distribution channels and communications, marketing strategies and policies in different cultural contexts, marketing specifics compared to developed countries and marketing in specific industries, were reviewed. It was concluded that emerging markets represent a huge opportunity for local and multinational companies. It was also proved that the marketing in general in these countries remains underdeveloped compared to Western countries of established market economies. Despite the fact that emerging market economies represent group countries with same features in some sense, a specific country and industry approach as far as marketing concerns was suggested.     

关于加强典型选树后的培育工作的思考

典型培育是工会的一项重要工作.加强对典型选树后的培育,使典型真正在职工群众中立得住、传得开、叫得响,不断展示其示范、导向、辐射效应,是素质工程建设中所需要认真思考、着力解决的重要课题.     

撬压痕迹的力学分析与计算

本文应用力学的理论、观点和方法，对撬压痕迹的本质、受破坏的客体对外力作用的抵抗表现进行分析，并归纳各种常见客体的结构形式、功能特点和痕迹形成的规律，为办案实践中的具体对象制定了分析问题和解决问题的方法。     

Cancer,HIV, and terrorism: translating public health models for prevention and control to counter-terrorism

What can cancer and HIV tell us about terrorism? How would we proceed if terrorism were a disease? A comparison of cancer and HIV can suggest alternative ways of conceptualizing terrorism and counter-terrorism using contrasting disease models that emphasize differing connections between etiology and prevention and control. A public health model also can help us think about terrorism as a basic research problem to be translated into therapeutic and preventive applications rather than primarily as a policy or political problem that makes only selective use of research studies. Through this re-conceptualization of terrorism as a basic and translational research challenge, we can draw upon the examples of the U.S. ‘War on Cancer’ and response to the ‘Aids Epidemic’ to help identify gaps in organizing academic and other resources to wage the ‘War on Terrorism.’ Recognizing and addressing these gaps could ultimately pave the way for more effective strategies in understanding and responding to the significant threats posed by terrorism, from the identification of factors that produce terrorist acts to the implementation of informed measures for the prevention and control of terrorist, and even proto-terrorist, activity.