日资出逃对中国制造业的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型CGE的模拟分析

基于可计算一般均衡模型CGE的模拟分析结果表明,在继续大力实施吸引外资政策的前提下,即使由于政治等因素,日本缩减对华投资,除对日资依赖性较强的炼焦、煤气及石油加工业等资源加工业外,日资的出逃对大多数制造业不会有大的影响。     

It's all relative: Spatial positioning of parties and ideological shifts

The usefulness of the general class of spatial econometric models, which relaxes the assumption that the observations are independent, has only recently been realised. One particularly fruitful application includes models of parties' ideological change as well as the electoral consequences of party competition. In these studies, scholars can explicitly model the spatial interconnectedness of political parties in theoretically pleasing ways, producing inferences that are consistent with formal models of party competition, but are beyond the grasp of traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models. To illustrate these benefits, this article replicates Adams and Somer‐Topcu's 2009 study of parties' responses to ideological shifts by rival parties to show that appropriately modeling patterns of interconnectivity between parties via weights matrices provides more realistic inferences that are more consistent with formal models of party competition.     

Sex Classification Using the Three‐Dimensional Tibia Form or Shape Including Population Specificity Approach

The aims of this study were to enable geometric morphometric sex classification using tibial proximal and distal sexual dimorphism and to evaluate the secular trend of tibial shape/form from the early 20th century to the present day. The study samples consisted of 61 adult tibias from an early 20th‐century Czech population and 57 three‐dimensional tibias from a 21st‐century population. Discriminant function analysis with cross‐validation was carried out to assess the accuracy of sex classification. Shape analysis revealed significant sex differences in both tibial extremities of the 21st‐century sample and in the proximal tibia of the 20th‐century population. Sex‐based divergence varied between the analyzed samples, raising the issues of population specificity and diachronic change. Classification using tibial form was more successful than using tibial shape. The highest values of correct assignment (91.80% and 88.52%) were found using the form from the early 20th Czech population.     

论婚姻与爱情及其关系

婚姻是一种社会制度,是客观的东西,具有理性、规定性、公开性、稳定性、特别是唯一性等特点;爱情是男女之间的一种心理感受,属于主观的范畴,具有感性、随意性、隐私性、易变性、尤其是多样性等特点.爱情是两性生活的一项重要内容,婚姻是两性关系的一种主要形式;爱情可以超越婚姻,婚姻不能左右爱情.婚姻与爱情的关系决定了一个社会及其成员应该始终围绕经济、政治、文化的发展状况这个基本前提,制定符合客观实际的婚姻规范.     

多元智能理论框架下任务型教学理论研究与模式构建

在多元智能理论和任务型教学倍受关注的环境下,本文从多元智能理论、任务型教学的特点、任务型教学的理论基础、多元化任务设计和多元化教学模式等角度,对任务型教学理论和模式构建进行了论证,为任务型教学能更科学有效地应用到外语教学中提供了新的思考维度。     

当代西方政党政治的新趋势

政党模式的演变正在对西方国家现行的政党政治构成严峻的挑战.一些老牌政党要么改换门庭,要么被新兴的政党所取代.由于选票决定政党的命运,而选票又基本上掌握在选民手中,所以,在选举期间如何投选民之所好,在上台执政以后如何兑现承诺,满足选民的利益诉求,就成为政党的理念及其活动的首要内容.     

Regional International Organizations and Individual Immigration Attitudes: Results from Finite Mixture Models

When are individuals more likely to support immigration? We suggest here that regional international organizations (IOs; for example, the European Union) publicly release reports about the scale and benefits of immigration to member states in the region in which these IOs operate. We argue that unlike individuals who are uninformed about immigration, informed individuals who have more knowledge of the main regional IO in which their country participates will be more likely to employ immigration reports released by their regional IO to construct their immigration attitudes. They will also perceive that these reports are credible. The credibility of these reports helps individuals with more knowledge about their region’s main IO to view immigrants favorably, which translates to support for immigration. We test our prediction by developing a finite mixture model that statistically accounts for the econometric challenges that emerge when uninformed individuals “save face” by disproportionately opting for the middle “status quo” category in ordinal survey response variables of immigration support. Results from the finite mixture model corroborate our prediction and are more reliable than estimates from a standard ordered probit model.     

Engagement processes in model programs for community reentry from prison for people with serious mental illness

Linking prisoners with mental illness with treatment following release is critical to preventing recidivism, but little research exists to inform efforts to engage them effectively. This presentation compares the engagement process in two model programs, each representing an evidence-based practice for mental health which has been adapted to the context of prison reentry. One model, Forensic Assertive Community Treatment (FACT), emphasizes a long-term wrap-around approach that seeks to maximize continuity of care by concentrating all services within one interdisciplinary team; the other, Critical Time Intervention (CTI), is a time-limited intervention that promotes linkages to outside services and bolsters natural support systems. To compare engagement practices, we analyze data from two qualitative studies, each conducted in a newly developed treatment program serving prisoners with mental illness being discharged from prisons to urban communities. Findings show that the working relationship in reentry services exhibits unique features and is furthered in both programs by the use of practitioner strategies of engagement, including tangible assistance, methods of interacting with consumers, and encouragement of service use via third parties such as families and parole officers. Nevertheless, each program exhibited distinct cultures and rituals of reentry that were associated with fundamental differences in philosophy and differences in resources available to each program.     

公共服务供给的中间模式——以上海市自强社会服务总社为例

在公共服务供给领域,事业单位的行政依附性和服务垄断性越来越不能适应市场经济的发展和人们日益多元的需求,而社会组织由于内部建设和外部环境的诸多问题,还不能有效地提供公共服务,因而有必要在两者的基础上,结合中国实际,探索一种公共服务供给的新模式,既保证组织有较高的能力和较好的政府关系又不影响组织的独立性和竞争机制的引入。鉴于对事业单位模式和社会组织模式进行比较的基础上,政府推动建立、组织自主运作的中间模式不失为可行的第三条路。