Constructing an index of officially recorded crime: The use of confirmatory factor analysis

Researchers using officially reported crime statistics must frequently combine rates of individual crimes into a single composite. The most popular composite is the FBI Crime Index, which is the sum of the seven Part I crimes; alternatives include forming separate indices for personal and property crimes and weighting the crime categories by their seriousness before summing them. In this paper we construct crime composites through the use of confirmatory factor analysis methods. The results suggest that the measurement assumptions of conventional crime indices are problematic and demonstrate how more satisfactory alternatives can be developed with confirmatory factor analysis techniques.     

How Exclusive is Assembly Democracy? Citizens' Assembly and Ballot Participation Compared

This paper analyses the difference between two specific forms of citizens’ involvements, namely whether a vote is cast by ballot or in a citizens’ assembly in which people gather in town halls to decide legislative questions in a deliberative manner. We show both theoretically and empirically how citizens’ assemblies and decisions at the ballot box substantially differ not only in terms of their underlying model of democracy, but also in their structural conditions and, thus, with respect to the social inequality of participation. We test our hypotheses in a Bayesian multilevel framework using real participation data collected from 15 political decisions made in a Swiss commune. Our results show that citizens’ assemblies are not only characterised by lower participation rates, but also by a particular composition of the electorate. While citizens’ assemblies are more equal regarding income groups, ballots favour a more equitable participation in terms of gender and age.     

An Improved Equation for TBS and ADD: Establishing a Reliable Postmortem Interval Framework for Casework and Experimental Studies

Megyesi et al.'s (J Forensic Sci, 2005, 50, 618) paper was important to forensic anthropology as it introduced a quantitative framework for estimating time since death in human cadavers, based upon physical appearance by way of scoring on a novel scale. However, errors concerning rounding, temperature scale, and incorrect use of a statistical regression model render their predictive formula unusable. Based upon only their more reliable data, a more appropriate regression model to predict accumulated degree days (ADD) from total body score (TBS) is presented. The new model is also a superior fit (r² = 0.91) and produces markedly narrower confidence intervals than the original, which also allowed impossible, negative ADD values. Explanations of the shortcomings in the original analysis and calculations are presented, which it is hoped will help forensic scientists avoid making similar mistakes.     

大鼠血液中HbCO随吸入CO浓度和时间的变化

目的研究不同一氧化碳(carbon monoxide,CO)浓度下中毒大鼠的行为学特征、存活时间、碳氧血红蛋白(carboxyhemoglobin,HbCO)饱和度变化规律,为法医学实践中CO中毒死亡案件提供实验依据。方法将160只SD大鼠随机分为4组。自制染毒装置,使大鼠分别在CO浓度为1 250、3 750、6 250 mg/m~3及持续通入CO状态下染毒致死亡。观察不同CO浓度中毒大鼠的行为学特征,记录存活时间,采用分光光度法检测心血HbCO饱和度,并提取脑、心脏、肺、肝等器官进行组织病理学观察。结果 CO中毒大鼠的行为学特征表现为肢体瘫软、反应迟钝。随着CO浓度的升高,大鼠存活时间逐渐缩短,心血HbCO饱和度逐渐升高。在CO浓度为1 250 mg/m~3条件下,发现3例心血HbCO饱和度明显低于致死饱和度,其余各组未发现心血HbCO饱和度低于致死饱和度的情况。结论建立的不同浓度下CO中毒死亡动物模型,操作简单,重复性好,为进一步研究CO中毒及其他吸入性有毒气体的法医学研究奠定了基础。     

General Deterrence and International Conflict: Testing Perfect Deterrence Theory

Since general deterrence necessarily precedes immediate deterrence, the analysis of general deterrence is more fundamental to an understanding of international conflict than is an analysis of immediate deterrence. Nonetheless, despite a few exceptions, the quantitative literature has ignored the subject of general deterrence, focusing almost exclusively on situations of immediate deterrence. My purpose in this essay is to fill this evidentiary gap by subjecting a recently developed theory of general deterrence—Perfect Deterrence Theory—to a systematic test by examining general deterrence from 1816–2000. The results indicate that the predictions of perfect deterrence theory are strongly supported by the empirical record.     

Conclusion – Building Regions from Below: Has the Time Come for Regionalism 2.0?

In a changing world ridden with crises and characterised by a general redistribution of power, regional organisations need to reinvent themselves. Equally, the study of regionalism has to reject its traditional Eurocentrism to embrace new conceptual categories in order to describe more effectively the variety of regional processes across the world. Against this background, this article looks at the European project and its current crisis before discussing other regional ‘experiments’ in Africa, Asia and Latin America, which rest on different principles but also manifest considerable shortcomings. The analysis points to the need to look at regionalism with a critical eye, emphasizing the undeniably important achievements but also the hidden threats that a certain model of regional integration (for instance, the classical top-down elite-driven process adopted by the EU founding fathers) can pose to the sustainability of regional cohesion and the adaptability of this model to other areas of the world.     

经济发展模式与经济民主散论

本文研究二次世界大战后市场经济国家的经济发展模式 ,通过对莱茵模式、丰田模式、芝加哥模式的考察 ,认为经济发展与经济民主之间有着相辅相成的一面。     

“伽利略传统”与经济学实证方法

经典力学中诞生的“伽利略传统”对经济学方法有很大的影响。实证主义把整个人类文化看成是以实证为基础的知识体系,把科学方法的某一方面夸大为科学理论的唯一出发点,走向了片面性。在现代经济学中,一方面模型方法发挥着越来越大的作用,体现了经济学方法的进步;另一方面,我们应该看到,经济学与物理学有本质差异,它没有典型的物理意义上的实验,同时它又包含物理学所没有的人与人的关系。因此,经济学既要合理地继承“伽利略传统”,又要注重社会历史、文化和民族心理等因素。     

社会主义本质与中国社会主义发展新模式

社会主义发展模式是体现社会主义本质的重要载体。中国模式的主旨是解放和发展生产力,制度依托是坚持生产资料公有制主体地位,突出特色是市场经济与社会主义相结合,价值理念是人的自由全面发展和共同富裕。中国模式是中国共产党人对社会主义的伟大创造和贡献,它是动态发展的,并将随实践的变化而变化和发展。     

Stature Estimation Formulae for Nigerians

Abstract:  In stature estimation, long limbs and the stature formula of Trotter and Gleser easily come to mind. In the recent past, a lot of workers have established formulae specific to their populations using whole length of limbs, fragmented bones, circumference of long bones, and even length of the vertebrae. We have in this work used tibia length, height of subjects, and the regression models to establish formulae specific to Nigerians. We measured height and tibia length of 200 (96 male and 104 female) adult Nigerians. The tibia length was measured from upper limit of the medial condoyle to the tip of medial malleolus using a measuring tape calibrated in meters while the height of individuals were also measured using meter scales. All measurements were made by one person, to avoid interobserver error, and repeatedly until a constant value is obtained. We obtained general formulae for males and females which compares favorably with that of Duyar and Pelin, and can be relied upon.