明皇朝的覆没与中国社会政治治理模式碎裂——中国选择社会主义道路的历史辨析

中国从1840年鸦片战争失败后,逐步跌入半封建半殖民地的深渊.历史地看,近代以来中国之所以被西欧社会发展迅速拉开距离,实是明皇朝276年统治所造成的.两败俱伤的中国社会政治治理模式,使得明皇朝成为历朝历代最腐朽,阻碍中国社会发展最严重的封建皇朝.明皇朝的覆没,以及李自成建立的大顺朝如流星般地消逝,表明中国社会政治治理模式碎裂.中国走向现代化,必然要转换社会政治治理模式.17世纪中期至20世纪中期的三个世纪,经过艰难曲折的探索,中国终于接受马克思主义,完成新民主主义革命,走上社会主义发展道路,实现社会转型.历史表明：社会主义是中华文明发展的自我选择,是实现中华民族伟大复兴的必由之路.     

欧洲国家人类辅助生殖的法律规制

欧洲所有国家都有关于规范辅助生殖的全面立法计划。欧洲国家的立法机构在调整辅助生殖的过程中在个人生育权与负责任的生殖实践和养育子女有关的信念之间寻求平衡。欧洲关于辅助生殖的立法分为宽容型、谨慎型和禁止型。意大利和西班牙作为具有天主教悠久历史的两个国家,在调整辅助生殖立法方面走上了两个截然相反的道路。医师团体、女权主义者、堕胎问题对于欧洲国家辅助生殖立法进程起到了重要作用。     

Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The Seats-Votes model

This paper applies the Seats-Votes Model to the task of forecasting the outcome of the 2015 election in Britain in terms of the seats won by the three major parties. The model derives originally from the ‘Law of Cubic Proportions’ the first formal statistical election forecasting model to be developed in Britain. It is an aggregate model which utilises the seats won by the major parties in the previous general election together with vote intentions six months prior to the general election to forecast seats. The model was reasonably successful in forecasting the 2005 and 2010 general elections, but has to be modified to take into account the ‘regime shift’ which occurred when the Liberal Democrats went into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010.     

美式新旧双边投资协定范本比较研究

2012年4月20日,美国奥巴马政府发布了新式美国BIT范本。该新范本以2004范本为基础进行了一定的修缮。对此,美国各界褒贬不一。总体而言,新范本与旧范本有所差别,但差别不大。修订后的新范本将会成为美国缔结新BITs的模板,为此,研究新范本中的相关修订,理解其修订的个中原委及其意欲取得的效果,对于预测BITs谈判的新动向和大国间BIT谈判具有重要的意义。     

The Symbolic Advantages and Brand Symbolic Models of Zhejiang Enterprises——from the Perspective of Brand Semiotics

As the major business group of China, Zhejiang Enterprises have undergone a marked promotion from tangible products advantages to intangible brand value. The brand resources have become the significant cultural asset for transformation and upgrading. Based on combing the symbolic advantages of Zhejiang Enterprises, this paper studies the symbolic connotation of Zhejiang Enterprises brand in different stages after the reform and opening from the brand semiotic theoretical view. The paper establishes four brand models: A, GB, DB and IB, which will be the important theoretical references for Zhejiang Enterprises in the development of cultural industry, improving the brand symbolic vitality and participating in the competition of the world brands.     

随机模拟法进行单亲累积亲权指数分析

目的以随机模拟法进行大量单亲累积亲权指数(CPI)统计分析。方法针对Identifiler、PP18D、PP21、AGCU EX20、AGCU 21+1等5个试剂盒,使用自主研发软件,随机模拟100万组单亲组合并计算单亲PI,统计各试剂盒单亲极低CPI比率(R_(VLCPI))、各基因座的PI中位数(M_(PI))和39个基因座的平均单基因座单亲PI(PI_(solo)),并推导增加检测的基因座个数(N)的计算公式。结果 Identifiler、PP18D、AGCU EX20、PP21、AGCU EX20AGCU 21+1的R_(VLCPI)分别为24.9%、6.5%、1.4%、0.7%、0.000 1%。在各试剂盒的基因座存在包含关系的前提下,R_(VLCPI)和常染色体基因座数成负相关。PI_(solo)为1.843 2。M_(PI)与PE_(duo)呈显著的正相关(r=0.956,P0.001)。增加检测的基因座个数公式为N=「log_(1.843 2)(10 000/P)■。结论本文结果和公式对单亲鉴定案具有一定的应用价值。     

论先进典型宣传的时代困境与应对

典型宣传作为我党政治工作中一道独特的实践图景承载着巨大的时代意涵,一方面它是引领人民群众发展进步的"助推器"与"方向盘",另一方面则是展现正面形象与弘扬社会主旋律的"重要窗口"。在多元价值并存的时代,典型宣传面临着巨大的冲击与挑战,其中既有社会大环境影响,更有宣传主体自身的原因。因此,维护典型人物的严肃性与可信性,提升宣传内容的可读性与生动性,关注受众群体的心理感受和加强不同媒体间的通力合作是提升先进典型宣传效果的实践路径。     

Why Low-Income Households Become Unstably Housed: Evidence From the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

ABSTRACT

Because of a severe shortage of affordable housing in the United States, an increasing number of low-income households suffer from housing instability. However, little evidence exists as to why they experienced housing instability, although they were stably housed at other times. By applying hybrid models to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data, this study estimates the effects of potential household-level predictors on the likelihood of experiencing housing instability. The results show that changes in family employment structure, job insecurity, automobile ownership, and the number of adult family members within a household correlate with housing instability after controlling for changes in household income and housing costs. Moreover, I find that households with children are particularly vulnerable to housing instability. These results contribute to identifying valid household-level predictors of housing instability and developing preventive policy interventions that help unsubsidized low-income households achieve housing stability.     

A comparison of proposed legislative data privacy protections in the United States

The use of online consumer tracking methods has raised significant privacy concerns for consumers and policymakers for decades. Advertisers using these methods analyze web-viewing habits to predict consumer preferences and actions. The advertising industry in the United States has promoted self-regulatory principles to respond to these concerns. However, in December 2010, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission reported that these efforts “have been too slow and up to now have failed to provide adequate and meaningful protection.” President Barack Obama's administration has supported broader legislation for comprehensive protection of individuals' private data. The leading model for data privacy protection is the 1980 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Guidelines on the Protection of Privacy and Transborder Flows of Personal Data. This article examines two leading legislative privacy proposals in the context of the OECD principles. This examination concludes that, although the proposals do not provide sufficient comprehensive privacy protections, they do fill significant gaps in current U.S. privacy laws.     

Paying the levy: Taxable wealth in Bridgetown,Barbados, 1680–1715

Differential fertility can be attributed to economic and cultural factors, but the family also plays an important role. Fertility behavior may be transmitted from parents to children through heritable dispositions or via socialization. Previous research has shown, however, that the expression of genetic effects depends on the interplay with the environment. In this article we take a long-term view and examine how the different mechanisms shifted over time and across social and local contexts on the basis of a large-scale database containing 100 thousand sibling pairs born between 1810 and 1870 in the Dutch province of Zeeland, a society undergoing demographic transition and industrialization. Corroborating earlier research, we find a significant increase in the expression of heritabilities and a fading of social influence for women born after the 1840s, who started their reproductive careers during the historical fertility decline in this region. Our study points out that the ‘social control’ of fertility was particularly reduced for women born in towns, women originating from the urban or rural laboring classes, and women from communities with a relatively liberal religious climate. Our findings are in line with research emphasizing the important role played by women in decision-making processes around childbearing, and could indicate the conditions that enhanced women's position in household bargaining during the historical fertility decline.