Selective incapacitation and the Philadelphia cohort data

The University of Pennsylvania study of delinquency in a Philadelphia birth cohort has been described byNewsweek as perhaps the most influential piece of criminal justice research in the last decade (March 23, 1981). Many have construed the findings as showing that, if imprisonment were focused on the minority of offenders with especially bad prognoses, the rate of crime could be reduced substantially. But others have taken the opposite view that the cohort data, far from endorsing such a selective incapacitation strategy, might actually provide strong evidence that such an approach is futile. Through some further analyses of the Philadelphia data, we attempt to clarify their policy implications.     

Growth curves of deviant behavior in early adolescence: A multilevel analysis

Multilevel growth curve models provide a means of analyzing individual differences in the growth of deviance, allow a number of theories to be integrated in a single model, and can help to unify research on deviant/delinquent/criminal careers at different stages of the life cycle. Building on the distinction between population heterogeneity and state dependence as alternative explanations of persistent individual differences in deviance (Heckman, 1981; Nagin and Paternoster, 1991), we show that models with two levels can be used to represent and analyze a variety of criminological theories. The first level (level 1) uses repeated measurements on individuals to estimate individual-level growth curves. The second level treats the level 1 growth curve parameters (e.g., slope, intercept) as outcome variables and uses time-invariant factors to explain variation in these parameters across individuals. We illustrate this approach by estimating a model of growth in deviance drawn from Gottfredson and Hirschi's deviant propensity theory. An innovative feature is the assumption that adolescents' expected growth curves of deviance follow a classical Pearl-Verhulst logistic growth model (Pearl, 1930). The results suggest that five risk factors—parental psychiatric problems, lack of parental support, living arrangements with zero or one parent in residence, low family income, and male gender—have strongly positive effects on deviant propensity. For example, adolescents with no supportive parents, and no other risk factors, have expected asymptotic levels of deviance (peak levels attained at about age 18) that are about twice as high as those of adolescents with no risk factors. Yet more than two-thirds of the individual-level variability in growth curves is unexplained by the five risk factors. This unobserved heterogeneity would remain hidden in analyses using conventional structural equations models and the same explanatory variables.     

形式模型与国际关系研究

本文讨论了形式模型在国际关系中的应用,认为形式模型对国际关系研究能够产生助益,这主要体现在:通过明晰理论假设,使人们对结论的适用范围有清楚的认识;使研究人员能够对研究对象中涉及的机制进行清晰可靠的分析;通过模型序列,促进知识的积累;避免研究过程中的反复重新论证等等。在此基础上,本文沿着理性选择、集体选择和博弈论的发展线索对形式模型在国际关系领域的应用进行了讨论。     

THE ROLE OF RACE AND ETHNICITY IN PAROLE DECISIONS*

The parole board plays an integral part in the reentry of offenders into the community from prison in most states; yet, little is known about the decision‐making practices of this group. In particular, few studies have used quantitative data to examine parole among a large group of offenders, and less is known about the direct and joint effects of race and ethnicity on this decision point. We extend previous work by considering variation in parole timing among a sample of young, serious offenders incarcerated in one state. Results from a series of proportional hazard models reveal substantial variation in parole timing. Consistent with the existing theoretical research on parole, parole actors are most concerned with community protection and heavily weigh measures of the current offense, institutional behavior, and the official parole guidelines score. The direct effects of race and ethnicity were also revealed. Black offenders spent a longer time in prison awaiting parole compared with white offenders, and the racial and ethnic differences are maintained net of legal and individual demographic and community characteristics. These findings provide important insight into the parole process and augment the existing theoretical work on disparities in decision making.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELF‐CONTROL AND LANGUAGE: EVIDENCE OF A SHARED ETIOLOGICAL PATHWAY*

Converging lines of research suggest that self‐control and language may be inextricably linked. No empirical research has ever examined this proposition, however. We address this gap in the literature by analyzing a sample of twin pairs from a nationally representative data set of children. The results revealed three broad findings. First, diminished language skills were predictive of low self‐control both cross‐sectionally and longitudinally. Second, the covariation between language and self‐control was linked to both genetic and environmental factors. Third, after controlling for genetic influences on self‐control, language skills were predictive of variation in individual levels of self‐control. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.     

两个苗族村落的权威结构

作者通过对贵州和云南两个苗族村落的田野考察,结合既往有关苗族村落之权威结构的民族学与人类学研究,以历史纵向书写的方式描述了两个村落的权威模式的形成、延续与现状,并分析了其中的原因。本文揭示两个文化相似的苗族村落在不同的历史条件下会形成不同的权威模式,而且这种模式会在村落中延续下去,这无疑也力图与那些赞同村落权威的模式发生的观点形成对话。     

刑事执行法律问题初探

首先剖析了我国目前刑事执行的现状,并指出了问题所在;然后通过对西方一些国家在此方面的立法和司法实践的解读,得到了三点启示;最后在全面分析比较我国目前主要刑事执行理论观点的基础上进行了理论重构,认为我国的刑事执行改革应走执行体制一体化和立法形式多样化相结合的道路。     

中国城市化进程与犯罪率之间关系的实证研究——基于结构突变的协整分析

在我国城市化发展进程中,伴随着犯罪率的显著上升,二者具有显著的长期趋势的一致性和短期波动的差异性。＂严打＂运动的外部冲击对协整模型具有显著的结构影响,＂严打＂运动在短期也起到了遏制犯罪的震慑效果。     

The rise of the ‘China Model’ and ‘Beijing Consensus’: evidence of authoritarian diffusion?

The rise of authoritarian great powers has raised questions about the dominance of the liberal democratic model and has led to a perception that the relative balance between democracy and authoritarianism is shifting. Consequently, there is increasing interest in and concerns about the diffusion of alternative ‘models’ of political and economic development. Given that China's impressive economic development has led to growing military strength and geopolitical prestige, evaluating perceptions of the legitimacy, effectiveness, and applicability of that country's model of ‘illiberal capitalism’ is a good place to start. This paper evaluates whether the ‘China Model’ or ‘Beijing Consensus' is gaining traction internationally through a content analysis of eight years of US and non-US media sources. It finds that concerns about the beginnings of an anti-democratic ‘reverse wave’ are exaggerated and that at the present time there does not appear to be a decisive shift in favour of a model of authoritarian-capitalism.     

International Organizations and Government Killing: Does Naming and Shaming Save Lives?

Do international organizations affect government killing? Extant work has studied international organizations' effects on a set of human rights, but has not examined the abilities of specific actors to protect specific rights. I analyze naming and shaming by three types of international organizations (human rights nongovernmental organizations [NGOs], the news media, and the United Nations), focusing on their impacts on a single type of abuse: one-sided government killing. I present a principal-agent theory in which the government develops a preference for killing, and then delegates the murderous task to a set of individual perpetrators. The theory reveals new ways for international organizations to make killing costly, and statistical analyses support my expectations: By calling attention to abusive states, human rights NGOs and the United Nations can reduce both the likelihood and severity of state-sponsored murder. I also find that international organizations are better equipped to prevent killing from the beginning than to limit mounting body counts once it has begun.