政策转换为法律的正当程序研究

正当程序承载着正义、民主、自由、人权等价值,是民主与法治社会应当遵循的一项普遍法则。政策转换为法律作为民主与法治社会的一项制度,也应当遵循这一法则。同时,遵守正当程序可以保障政策转化为良法,可以保证政策转化为法律过程的正当性。遵循正当程序,就应该在政策转换为法律的过程中注重听取意见制度、公开与说明理由制度和避免偏私制度等。     

甘肃省产业工人阶层生活感受问卷调查

改革开放以来,甘肃省城乡经济稳步发展,城乡居民生活水平有了明显提高。2005年,甘肃省人均生产总值7341元,这个数字低于全国平均水平,但是,它也显示甘肃同全国一样进入了一个新的发展时期,即经济的快速发展与社会矛盾的凸显并存的时期。通过对问卷调查结果的分析研究,客观真实地了解和认识当前产业工人的生活感受,这对各级政府和社会各界了解民意、体察民情,探寻某些社会问题的解决途径,实现改革、发展、稳定的目标,构建和谐社会都有着十分重要的意义。     

推理过程中非理性现象的新解释

人们在实际的推理过程中常违反形式逻辑标准,出现各种偏差现象,表现出非理性,原有理论无法对此作出合理解释.双重加工理论能更好地解释人们实际推理和标准推理(normative reasoning)之间的不一致,认为人类存在着两个完全不同的认知系统:系统1--执行快速、平行、自动化和启发式加工;系统2--执行需要意志努力和认知资源的、控制和分析式加工.当系统1占优势时,人们会违反逻辑形式标准,出现偏差,表现出非理性;而当系统2占主导地位时,人们的推理会符合逻辑形式标准.     

When random assignment fails: Some lessons from the Minneapolis Spouse Abuse Experiment

In this paper, we consider what may be done when researchers anticipate that in the implementation of field experiments, random assignment to experimental and control groups is likely to be flawed. We then reanalyze data from the Minneapolis Spouse Abuse Experiment in a manner that explicitly models violations of random assignment. As anticipated, we find far larger treatment effects than previously reported. The techniques developed should be useful in a wide variety of settings when random assignment is implemented imperfectly.     

Just punishments: Guideline sentences and normative consensus

The federal sentencing guidelines prescribe ranges of sentences to be given to persons convicted of felonies in the federal criminal courts. The U.S. Sentencing Commission wrote the guidelines attempting to make sentences conform to community views of appropriate punishments, along with several other criteria. Employing data from a 1994 national sample of adult Americans, designed as a factorial survey, the degree of correspondence is shown between guidelines sentences and those desired by the American public. Although at the individual level only a modest degree of concordance was found, the central tendencies of public opinion (median sentences) were found to correspond quite closely to the guidelines sentences. The major points of disagreement centered around drug trafficking crimes: the guidelines prescribed very long sentences for those crimes and distinguished sharply among trafficking in heroin, powder cocaine, and crack, whereas median sentences desired by the public were much lower and did not distinguish sharply among trafficking in those drugs. We interpret the findings as indicating that the guidelines sentences conform reasonably closely to American normative consensus concerning the sentencing of federal felons.The research reported in this article was commissioned by the U.S. Sentencing Commission. The views expressed in this article are not necessarily endorsed by the Commission. Full expositions of the findings from the national survey used are given by Rossi and Berk (1995, 1997).     

Using network sampling in crime victimization surveys

Since crime victimizations are statistically rare events, surveys to estimate rates of victimization are difficult and expensive. In this paper, we examine the advantages of network sampling over traditional methods for conducting crime victimization surveys. Network sampling links population households in specified ways, for reporting purposes, in order to increase the probabilities of locating households with particular characteristics. We conducted a reverse record check field experiment to test whether a telephone survey using network sampling is feasible to collect crime victimization data. Three types of crimes-burglary, robbery, and assault-were tested along with two types of networks-relatives and co-workers/close friends. This paper examines the extent to which victims report their victimization experiences in a general crime and victimization interview and the extent to which a randomly selected relative or close friend will report the same victimization incident in an identical interview. A number of multiplicity counting rules are compared in terms of reporting errors and a mean square error analysis.     

Marital status and woman abuse theory

An area that has received insufficient attention in woman abuse studies is marital status. Although many feel that ending the marriage will end the violence, this may not be the case. An examination of National Crime Survey victimization data shows that most victims are, at the time of the interview, divorced or separated. There are reasons to believe that this is partially accounted for by the fact that many or even most women leave abusive relationships. If this is the case, then the traditional question of why women remain in battering marriages is improperly put. If most women do take appropriate steps, then we need much more information on both how women are victimized by ex-spouses and how women take active steps to improve their own lives.     

Self-reports of Police Speeding Stops by Race: Results from the North Carolina Reverse Record Check Survey

Survey reports of police stops and driving behavior are a potential methodology for examining the magnitude and prevalence of the “Driving While Black” phenomena. However, estimates of the magnitude or correlates of racial disparity in police stops from self-reported survey data are potentially compromised if the accuracy of self-reports of police stops and driving behavior differ by race. We report on the results of a reverse record check survey in which we directly assess the degree and consequences of differences by race in self-reports of police stops. In our sample of drivers who had been cited for speeding in the preceding year, we found that 77% of the White respondents and 71% of the African American respondents admitted to being stopped. While both groups underreport stops, African Americans do so at a higher rate. This finding is consistent with many past studies which report stronger social desirability effects on survey responses among African Americans. Thus, survey data will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the “Driving While Black” phenomena.

当代大学生公众形象调查报告

中国青年政治学院青年发展研究院“大学生公众形象调查”结果显示:对贫困大学生现象,社会公众明显认知不足。相反,富足的适度消费与略显奢侈的高消费成为社会公众认知的主流。绝大多数调查对象认为大学生目前的主要心理问题是“精神萎靡不振,”原因是“就业压力过大”。对于大学生学习态度持积极评价的比例和持消极评价的比例基本持平。大学生在公共场合“情侣之间的动作过于亲密”被视为最普遍、最典型的有悖于公共道德或社会伦理规范的行为。     

Prisoners’ Positive Illusions of Their Post-Release Success

Prisoners' forecasts of post-release success may have implications for how they respond to imprisonment, release, and parole decisions. We examined sentenced US and UK prisoners' forecasts of recidivism, and how well UK prisoners believed they would fare compared to the average other prisoner. In both samples, forecasts of recidivism were unrealistically optimistic when compared to official statistics on recidivism. UK prisoners also demonstrated a self-enhancement bias by forecasting that they were less likely to re-offend than other prisoners. Prisoners' forecasts of recidivism were predicted by only a few of the pre-prison, in-prison, and post-prison factors that have been shown to be associated with actual recidivism. We discuss the implications of these findings and propose avenues for future research.