Beyond crime seriousness: Fitting the punishment to the crime

This paper presents an exposition of how the factorial survey approach may enhance empirical assessments of the complex judgment principles involved in public views of just punishments for convicted offenders. Ratings of the appropriateness of sentences given across 50 typical crimes obtained from a household sample (N=774) of the Boston SMSA and several special-interest samples in 1982 are examined in three alternative ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression equations. These analyses show there is not a one-to-one direct relationship between public perceptions of the seriousness of criminal acts and desired sanctions. Crime seriousness is modified by the characteristics of the offenders and victims and by the consequences of the crimes. Preferred punishments also vary in severity by demographic, experiential, and attitudinal characteristics of the persons who make the judgments.     

Exploring the Effects of Changes in Design on the Analytical Uses of the NCVS Data

In 1992 changes were made in the design of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to improve its accuracy and utility. Little is known about the effect of the redesign on the analytic uses of the NCVS. This paper examines the effects of the redesign across population subgroups important in analyses of victimization. This extends work on modeling victimization and begins the construction of a measurement model that addresses the reliability and validity of NCVS data across important analytic subgroups. These two goals are interrelated. If the redesign has a differential effect across subgroups, then it is critical to understand whether these effects increase or decrease the validity of the data. Assessing validity requires developing a model of survey response against which the results of the redesign can be compared. If differences across designs are consistent with expectation from the survey response model, then we can use these new data for substantive analyses. The design change had little effect on models of victimization. The effects observed were largely consistent with expectation from a survey response model except in the simple assault model, where the effects of age and income on victimization were reduced in the new design.     

Criminal Justice Policy Transfer To Post-Soviet States: Two Case Studies Of Police Reform In Russia And Ukraine

The aim of this article is to review the impact of two British research projects on the policies and practices of local police forces in two former Soviet states: Russia and Ukraine. Using a case study approach, the article explores the ways in which the political, cultural and ideological context within which the police operate, and reform is being attempted, shape attitudes towards reform amongst the police and the public, and the outcomes achieved. The article draws upon an evaluation of the impact of two independent 3-year applied research projects, which aimed to investigate specific crime and policing issues in Russia and Ukraine, implement pilot projects and evaluate their impact in order to make recommendations for more general criminal justice policy reform. The overall results of the projects suggest that, despite significant interest in the concept of police reform and the adoption of western concepts, particularly at the local level, significant barriers to large-scale policy transfer persist, many of which are largely beyond the influence of local practitioners and western reformers.     

Endogenous economic voting: evidence from the 1997 British election

Using panel surveys conducted in Great Britain before and after the 1997 general election, we examine the relationship between voting behavior and post-election economic perceptions. Drawing on psychological theories of attitude formation, we argue that those who voted for Labour and the Liberal Democrats perceived the past state of the British economy under the Tory government more negatively than they had prior to casting their ballot in the 1997 election. Similarly, we posit that Labour supporters would view the future state of the national economy under Labour more positively than they had before the election. This indicates that, contrary to many assumptions in the economic voting literature, voting behavior influences evaluations of the economy as voters seek to reduce inconsistencies between their vote choice and evaluations of the economy by bringing their attitudes in line with the vote they cast in the election. It also means that voters’ post-election economic perceptions are, at least in part, influenced by and thus endogenous to their vote choice. This finding has two major implications: first, cross-sectional models of economic voting are likely to overestimate the effect of economic perceptions on the vote. Second, the endogeneity of economic perceptions may compromise the quality of economic voting as a mechanism for democratic accountability.     

Victims and Offenders in Two Crime Statistics Programs: A Comparison of the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) overcomes a basiclimitation of the traditional summary Uniform Crime Reporting program (UCR)by collecting victim information. Using this new victim information tocompare National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and NIBRS results, wefind some similarities as well as some differences in the characteristics ofvictims and offenders suggested by the two programs. Similarities appear inthe proportions of men and women involved as victims and offenders forrobbery and assault. Comparisons are more difficult and the proportions lesssimilar for property offenses. Nevertheless, the results suggest that whenthe NIBRS is fully developed, it will be an important source of informationon the characteristics of both victims and offenders. Even before theredesigned program is fully implemented, one of the most important featuresof NIBRS reports will be their ability to provide local area victimizationinformation. In addition, the NIBRS will provide much more information onarrests and the characteristic of offenders than any existing program.     

游客信息与湖泊旅游风景区开发中的生态建设--以云南抚仙湖为例

目前,在我国不少江河湖海风景区的开发中,往往对区域景观与旅游布局的协调性、旅游服务的对象即游客的旅游需求和心理动态信息注意不够,在风景区的旅游功能塑造和旅游建设中带有很大的随意性,这就容易导致旅游开发中的破坏性.根据当地自然和人文景观的特点,把旅游特色的塑造与生态建设结合起来,才是旅游业可持续发展的正确途径.     

The Attachment of Demonstrators to Institutional Politics: Comparing LGBTIQ Pride Marches in Argentina and Chile

Focusing on LGBTIQ demonstrations in Argentina and Chile, we study protesters' attachment to institutional politics, defined as their emotional and attitudinal connection with the political system. We show that Argentine LGBTIQ demonstrators are on average more attached to institutional politics than Chilean ones. This can be explained neither by differences between Argentines and Chileans in general, nor by demonstrators' individual characteristics. Instead, expanding the political process model, we argue that achieving a substantial part of the LGBTIQ agenda in Argentina, and limited success in Chile, contributed to build a stronger attachment to the political system among Argentine LGBTIQ demonstrators than their Chilean counterparts.     

Public Opinion Surveys and USA Foreign Policy Towards Latin America in the Second World War

In this paper, the roles of public opinion polls and agency in foreign policymaking are examined. Based on documents uncovered from the National Archives and Rockefeller Archive Center, this paper presents a more comprehensive picture of the history of public opinion surveys and the shaping of US bureaucracy in their relation to foreign affairs. Further, the paper contends that policymakers are interested in public views pertaining to foreign policy issues, but that private interests (serving their own interpretations of national interest) shape public views, using new techniques as guiding tools.