空间认知的几点反思

空间理论探究近年来成为学术界关注的热点，但从不同流派的空间认知中，可以发现他们对空间的认知或者基于空间理论展开的其他研究，都不同程度地存在着脱离对空间本体及基本属性认知的局限，因而从空间本体论、空间属性、空间方位、空间与时间关系角度全面深入地对其展开探究，是科学准确地把握空间基础理论的关键，也是进一步展开空间理论其他研究的前提。     

《崇陵传信录》的真实成书时间及相关问题

《崇陵传信录》是常被有关论著征引的一部著名私家笔记。长期以来,人们一直认其成书时间在满清退位以前,所据为恽毓鼎在本书的＂弁言＂后署时＂宣统三年辛亥四月＂。其实,这是恽毓鼎的故弄玄虚。真实情况是,该书于1912年8月6日开笔,随即又搁置下来,直至次年9月22日才脱稿。此中原委,今借助恽毓鼎《澄斋日记》的有关记录得以弄清楚。另外,梁启超、罗惇融、饶智元等人与该书在有关报刊的连载及一次性全文发表均有关系,但长期以来鲜有提及者。     

Blind validation of postmortem interval estimates using developmental rates of blow flies

This study evaluated the use of different degree day (DD) models, developmental thresholds and developmental data sources for estimating postmortem interval (PMI) based on developmental rates of blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae). Blow fly evidence was collected from three mock crime scenes and sent for blind analysis of PMI. PMI estimates were calculated using averaging, single sine, double sine, single triangle, and double triangle models of DD calculation with minimum developmental thresholds of 0, 6 and 10 °C and Anderson's, Byrd and Allen's, Greenberg's, Nishida's and Kamal's developmental data sets. These estimates were compared with the actual PMI to determine which combination of DD model, developmental threshold and developmental data provided the most accurate estimate. For all three cases, at least one method gave a PMI estimation that was within 1 day of the actual date of death. There was no variability between PMI estimated using the five models of DD calculation. Overall, as lower developmental threshold increased, the PMI interval estimates increased. Depending on the developmental data set used, increasing the lower developmental threshold caused some overestimations of the date of oviposition, with estimates given that were prior to the actual death. Future PMI estimates should include error ranges, so that overestimation of PMI is avoided.     

警务实战“指挥”探析

本文就“指挥”的应用领域，“指挥”的冠名，“指挥”的基本概念、属性及“警务实战指挥”急需研究和解决的若干理论问题进行初步的探析，旨在抛砖引玉。     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

Detection of Gamma-Hydroxybutyric Acid in Various Drink Matrices via AccuTOF-DART*

Abstract: A new screening method for detecting gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) in drink matrices, using the IonSense, Inc. (Saugus, MA) direct analysis in real time (DART) ion source coupled to a JEOL exact mass time-of-flight mass spectrometer (AccuTOF), was validated and compared with the current screening methodology. The DART ion source allows for analysis of samples under ambient conditions with little to no sample preparation. Fifty drink specimens were spiked at levels of 1, 2, 3, and 4 mg/mL GHB, and analyzed on the AccuTOF-DART. Positive detection of GHB occurred for each of the samples at each concentration level, giving 100% accuracy for the samples tested. Twenty-five of the 50 drink specimens were spiked at 1 mg/mL GHB and tested using a color test known as the GHB Color Test #3. Only two of these 25 specimens tested positive for the presence of GHB, giving only 8% accuracy. Implementation of this new methodology as a screening tool for GHB analysis will quickly eliminate negative specimens allowing the examiner to focus analysis time on those that screened positive.     

A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.     

马克思主义时代化的路径探析

时代性是马克思主义的本质属性。作为不断发展的理论,马克思主义的每一次历史性飞跃,都带有深刻的时代烙印,都是马克思、恩格斯、列宁、毛泽东、邓小平等马克思主义者在马克思主义基本原理的指导下精细考察时代特征、准确把握时代脉搏、深刻洞察时代趋势的基础上,把对马克思主义的"文本解读"与对各个历史时期的"时代解读"相结合,不断实现马克思主义时代化的过程。"文本解读"与"时代解读"相结合,是实现马克思主义时代化的根本途径。     

时间抑或地域——宪法学研究之中国性

学术研究有其存在的历史境域。对一个学科而言,只有在贴合具体的历史境域下讨论该学科的学术研究,讨论该学科的发展方向时才具有意义。从我国历史上看,宪法学研究从清末开始,到现在已有100多年,无论其几经沧海桑田,但它之所以可以沿称到现在,自有它自立的关切方法、问题和理论体系。中国宪法研究的中国性问题,不仅涉及宪法学在中国的时间性差别问题,也涉及其地域性差别问题。     

论中国工人阶级的伟大品格

中国工人阶级具有崇高的理想抱负、远大的政治眼光、开拓进取的生命特质和勇于变革的时代精神,并以＂大公无私、舍己为人＂的品行信仰;＂厚德载物,安贫乐道＂的高尚情操;＂开拓创新、自强不息＂时代需求;＂迎难而上、坚忍不拔＂的拼搏意识;＂信念坚定、立场鲜明＂的理想气节;＂艰苦奋斗、勇于奉献＂的精神气质;＂胸怀大局、纪律严明＂的历史传统;＂埋头苦干、爱岗敬业＂的道德风貌而始终洋溢着工人阶级伟大品格的时代风范。