Homicide Trends and Illicit Drug Markets: Exploring Differences Across Time

Ample speculation and some evidence suggests that the decline in homicide rates since the early 1990s was partially attributable to declining levels of drug market activity. This analysis explores that explanation, along with an alternative: the strength of the drug market–lethal violence relationship has weakened over time. We outline several conceptual reasons to expect period‐specific differences in the drug market–homicide relationship. These include the aging of market participants, shifts in the normative and transactional climate of markets, and changes in structural factors affecting the magnitude of the relationship between drug market indicators and homicide rates (such as socioeconomic disadvantage). These arguments are evaluated for a sample of large US cities. The results generally show a pattern of attenuation in the drug market–homicide relationship and lead us to conclude that part of the homicide decline is likely due to a drop in the amount of drug market activity, some of it is attributable to the aging of drug market participants, and some appears to be due to unmeasured factors which may have created a “kinder and gentler” drug market.     

A New Method for Determination of Postmortem Interval: Citrate Content of Bone*

Abstract: Few accurate methods exist currently to determine the time since death (postmortem interval, PMI) of skeletonized human remains found at crime scenes. Citrate is present as a constituent of living human and animal cortical bone at very uniform initial concentration (2.0 ± 0.1 wt %). In skeletal remains found in open landscape settings (whether buried or not), the concentration of citrate remains constant for a period of about 4 weeks, after which it decreases linearly as a function of log(time). The upper limit of the dating range is about 100 years. The precision of determination decreases slightly with age. The rate of decrease appears to be independent of temperature or rainfall but drops to zero for storage temperature <0°C.     

柏格森“直觉”、“时间”视域下的老庄生命哲学解读

柏格森以＂直觉＂为核心概念,并由此出发构筑了以＂时间＂为特点的生命哲学。从柏格森哲学的视域观察两千多年前的中国哲学,可见老庄早已运用直觉思维方式,构筑了自己超然的生命哲学思想。     

Deterrence,Firearm Arrests,and Subsequent Shootings: A Micro-Level Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Do police firearm arrests reduce later shootings in nearby locations and in the days immediately following the arrest? This question is examined at a more detailed level than in previous work in order to better describe the spatio-temporal dynamics linking these two event types. All firearm arrests (n?=?5,687) and shootings (n?=?5,870) in Philadelphia from 2004 to 2007 were analyzed using a modified close-pair method. Following a firearm arrest shootings declined significantly, 28–47% up to a couple of blocks away. These significant declines, however, lasted for just a few days. Overall, results suggest police firearm suppression effects occur, may extend up to two blocks away from a firearm arrest, but also are short-lived. Potential implications for deterrence are discussed.     

试述公安警务指挥时间与指挥速率

公安警务指挥速率对提高公安快速反应能力具有重要的意义,公安警务指挥速率的核心是时间因素。因此,把握好时间因素是实现公安机关快速反应,打击违法犯罪,有效防范和维护社会和谐稳定的关键。本文围绕公安警务指挥时间的含义、构成和影响公安警务指挥时间的因素展开论述,揭示了公安警务指挥活动中,指挥时间、指挥周期和行动周期三者关系所体现的客观规律,提出了把握公安警务指挥时间,提高公安警务指挥速率的方法。     

精神障碍者受审能力评定量表的编制

目的研制符合中国法律体系的精神障碍者受审能力评定量表。方法从法学要件着手,提取出15个条目,编制出初步的精神障碍者受审能力评定量表,从决断值、条目与总分相关、校正条目与总分相关、条目删除后的α值、条目共同性、因素负荷量6个方面对量表进行条目分析,并以Logistic回归方程与ROC曲线划定界值两种方式进行诊断效能的判断。结果各条目极端组的决断值18.390~46.763,各条目与总分相关系数0.639~0.952,校正条目与总分相关系数0.582~0.944,条目共同性0.377~0.916,因素负荷量0.614~0.957。共7个条目进入回归方程,总样本的回判正确率为96.0%。ROC拟合曲线分析出宜以33分作为量表划界分,与专家鉴定意见的重叠率为95.8%,敏感性为0.938,特异性为0.966,阳性似然比为27.67,阴性似然比为0.06。结论量表编制合理,各条目符合同质性检验要求,诊断性评价指标较好。     

转型期中国灵活就业性质及规模的影响因素分析

灵活就业是一种对国家、企业、个人具有巨大现实意义的就业形式。现阶段，它以不断发展壮大的趋势引起社会各界的广泛关注。本文首先分析了转型期中国灵活就业的四点性质，并建立模型对中国历年的灵活就业规模进行估测，然后运用多元回归的分析方法，分析了影响中国灵活就业规模的因素并得出相关结论，最后针对灵活就业的发展现状提出对策建议。     

中国农村社会性别行为量表的发展和验证

中国背景下的社会性别行为量表(Gender Behavior Scale,GBS)是基于中国农村的现实背景,采用文献研究、访谈、专家评议和心理计量的方法.经历了界定概念、建立题库、量表心理计量学特征的验证3个阶段发展而来的.其目的在于测量人们行为当中的社会性别公平程度.于2005年6月在中国东部一个区的农村人群的样本中对GBS心理计量学特征进行验证的结果表明,GBS具有良好的信度和效度,但也有其自身的局限性,应在新的样本和人群中修正GBS,以发展出适应不同人群的不同版本的GBS.     

Sexual offenders’ treatment experience: a qualitative and quantitative investigation

Abstract

This research investigates the where and when of sexual assaults to determine what types of sexual crimes are committed at different time and place classifications. Exhaustive CHAID (chi-squared automatic interaction detection) analyses are conducted, examining factors associated with crimes that were committed indoors or outdoors, in private or public places, during the day or at night, and during the week or on the weekend. These methods are applied to a sample of 361 sexual crime events committed by 72 serial sex offenders. The results are strikingly different dependent on which spatial or temporal aspect of the crime is examined, which implies the complexity of sexual crime events and their situational components. This research brings to light possible policy implications with respect to situational crime prevention.     

当前犯罪在时间上的常见伎俩及侦查对策

时间是犯罪的要素,因此也是智能犯罪者耍弄伎俩实施犯罪或蒙蔽侦查机关的重点。清醒地认识这些伎俩并在侦查时采取适当之策非常必要。在当前,犯罪在时间上的常见伎俩是:不仅指使他人犯罪避开直接犯罪时间而且指使他人当"替身";不仅存在时间上的假证、而且采用调改时间指示键、假去外地返回犯罪等伎俩;不仅间隙短时作案,而且当面用极短时间实施犯罪而不使人发觉;采用一些智能性伎俩拖延犯罪被发现时间;分离犯罪和危害出现时间、犯罪时间无规律、共犯分割作案时间等。对这些伎俩的一般侦查对策是:反面设想、细化调查;侦查实验、验证时间;从其它作案条件着手;秘密侦查获取犯罪证据;对嫌疑人或证人测谎。