Construct validity and internal reliability of the Finnish risk and needs assessment form

Validation of risk and needs assessment instruments used to predict, and reduce, recidivism and misconduct is of ethical, practical and scientific importance. We argue for a focus on variable (i.e. changeable over time) risk factors, and that validation begins with establishing construct validity. The Finnish Risk and Needs Assessment Form, in Finnish Riski- ja tarvearvio (RITA), is a semi-structured interview form adapted from the Offender Assessment System used in England and Wales and consists primarily of variable risk factors. In this study, we examined the construct validity and internal reliability of RITA. The results suggest that the original RITA sections do not provide an adequate statistical model for describing the relationship between scored questions, and we, therefore, offer an improved model. In our proposed model, several scores are influenced by more than one dimension of risk and the dimensions correlate with each other considerably. We suggest that the dimensions that can be measured with RITA are Problems managing economy, Alcohol problems, Resistance to change, Drug abuse and associated behaviour, Aggressiveness and Employment problems. All factors except Drug abuse and associated behaviour had very good internal reliability. We propose this new model to be used in future research with, and in development of, RITA.     

情报信息主导侦查机制的构成要素

侦查机关要在与犯罪作斗争的过程中赢得先机,必须建立一套长期有效的侦查机制。情报信息主导侦查机制是社会信息化的产物,是新时代适应打击违法犯罪的需要。该机制主要有六部分组成,包括情报意识、硬件设施及技术、组织管理体系、专业队伍、制度及情报信息数据库等。     

中国股票型开放式基金业绩的实证分析——基于信息比率与单因素模型评价方法的对比分析

采用信息比率与单因素评价模型,使用沪深300指数构建基准投资组合,对我国2005-2007年中10只股票型开放式基金经风险调整后的业绩进行实证研究。基于信息比率的基金业绩评价指标相对于单因素模型有较明显的应用优势,同时采用沪深300指数作为市场基准的评价结果更具有可靠性。     

老龄化是新世纪我国面临的严峻挑战

本首先展望了21世纪我国人口老龄化的发展前景,指出在未来50年中,我国将处于高速度、高水平的老龄化发展进程之中,65岁及以上老年人口将从8000多万增至3亿以上,这对尚处于社会主义初级阶段的国家来说,无疑是个巨大冲击和严峻挑战;分析了老龄化的特殊性及其对社会经济发展所带来的深刻影响和至关重要的制久作用;提出了迎接老龄化挑战是个关系全局性、战略性的重大问题,必须采取有中国特色的正确战略选择。     

论公安机关在构建和谐社会中职能作用的发挥

构建社会主义和谐社会是一项宏大而长远的系统工程。公安机关在这一伟大工程中负有神圣使命与重大历史责任。为此,必须深刻理解和谐社会的内在涵义,找准公安工作的切入点,从根本上解决在影响构建和谐社会过程中出现的诸多问题,充分发挥公安机关的职能作用,为构建和谐社会服务。     

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.     

A method for calculating the strength of evidence associated with an earwitness's claimed recognition of a familiar speaker

The present paper proposes and demonstrates a method for assessing strength of evidence when an earwitness claims to recognize the voice of a speaker who is familiar to them. The method calculates a Bayes factor that answers the question: What is the probability that the earwitness would claim to recognize the offender as the suspect if the offender was the suspect versus what is the probability that the earwitness would claim to recognize the offender as the suspect if the offender was not the suspect but some other speaker from the relevant population? By “claim” we mean a claim made by a cooperative earwitness not a claim made by an earwitness who is intentionally deceptive. Relevant data are derived from naïve listeners' responses to recordings of familiar speakers presented in a speaker lineup. The method is demonstrated under recording conditions that broadly reflect those of a real case.     

Influence of acculturation strategies on the judgement and punishment of an offender of North African descent

Very few studies have examined the influence of the acculturation strategies of an offender of foreign descent on the way a third party judges the personality and action of that offender. The aim of our study was thus to measure the effect of three variables (Seriousness of the harm suffered by the victim; Type of acculturation strategy of the offender; Level of Social Dominance Orientation [SDO]) of the person making the judgement) on the judgements and decisions made by a sample of students faced with a situation of physical aggression committed by a man of North African descent living in France. After reading a scenario describing a criminal act committed by a man of North African descent, who had or had not adopted French culture, 168 French students completed a judgement scale concerning the criminal act and the offender and an SDO scale. The results show that the crime was perceived as less serious when the perpetrator had adopted French culture than when he had not. The perpetrator was also judged less severely. Participants with higher levels of SDO advocated harsher punishment and attributed the crime to the offender’s personality. We discuss these results and identify new avenues for research.     

The Sexual Violence Risk-20: factor structure and psychometric properties

Although the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) is widely used, its psychometric properties have only been investigated in a limited number of studies. This study explored the factor structure of the SVR-20 and examined its psychometric properties. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to examine the fit of the original three-domain model of the SVR-20. The CFA showed that the original structure was not satisfactory. Exploratory principal components analysis (PCA) was conducted in search of a more optimal factor structure. Psychometric properties (i.e., internal consistency, predictive value, and convergent validity) of both the original domains and alternative factors were investigated. The PCA and subsequent CFAs pointed in the direction of an alternative, more optimal three-factor solution. The three alternative factors were labeled as Antisociality, Sexual deviance, and Problematic thinking and produced better internal consistency coefficients than the original domains. However, the validity of the SVR-20 was modest and no evidence was found indicating that the alternative factors were better in this regard as compared to the original domains. Despite the overall superiority of actuarial measures in predicting recidivism, the structured professional judgment of the SVR-20 proved to be more predictive of sexual, violent, and general recidivism than its actuarial scoring method.     

法治视野下的警察执法违法行为规制

近年来,新闻媒体不断披露的有关公安机关或人民警察违法犯罪案件,引起人们对公安机关及人民警察的极大关注。不仅对警民关系的健康发展造成影响,而且带来“法律信仰”危机。“执法者违法”现象的形成固然有执法者自身素质不高等原因,但其根源在于我国现有警察制度自身的缺陷。通过分析我国警察制度的现状,从制度层面上分析“执法者违法”现象的产生原因,探析现有警察制度存在的不足,进而提出制度改革的若干意见。