Crime and Residential Choice: A Neighborhood Level Analysis of the Impact of Crime on Housing Prices

Crime serves as an important catalyst for change in the socio-economic composition of communities. While such change occurs over a long period of time, crime is capitalized into local housing markets quickly and thus provides an early indicator of neighborhood transition. Using hedonic regression, we quantify this “intangible cost” of crime and extend the crime-housing price literature in several important ways. First, we disaggregate crime to the census tract level. Second, using longitudinal data, we examine changes in crime in addition to the neighborhood levels of crime. Third, we differentiate between the effects of property crime and violent crime. Fourth, we also disaggregate our sample into groups based on per capita income of the census tract. Finally, we show that it is vital to account for the measurement error that is endemic in reported crime statistics. We address this with an instrumental variable approach. Our results indicate that the average impacts of crime rates on house prices are misleading. We find that crime is capitalized at different rates for poor, middle class and wealthy neighborhoods and that violent crime imparts the greatest cost.

都市转型背景下的领导学研究与面临的挑战

进入21世纪,以经济迅速崛起为先导的中国城市化进程步入快速发展轨道。都市化转型、内部体制变迁和不断强化的全球化趋势相互交织在一起,构成了一幅极为繁杂、壮阔的都市转型的社会图景。与近代城市工业化转型不同的是,现代都市转型呈现出了一些新的特征:第一,现代城市转型的内涵和维度正发生着深刻的变化;第二,都市的功能越来越趋于从生产型向服务型转变;第三,随着全球化、信息化的挑战,城市转型过程也是一个各种各样的新型知识互相汇聚、错综交织,从而形成一个新的知识网络与平台的过程;第四,关于城市理念的塑造,城市转型中出现的关键问题是城市品格、城市精神和城市韵律的重构。都市领袖必须深刻理解转型背景下的“城市领导”要义,即“领导”城市而非“控制”城市;政策服务而非狭义的技术技能;多视野而非单一的应急管理;具备综合知识的人文型领导而非单一学科背景的专家。因此,城市转型时代的领导学研究必须广泛吸收各种学科的思想精髓,以推动中国城市在全球化背景下的成功转型。     

中国外交三十年:对进步与不足的若干思考

本文是对改革开放以来中国外交进步与转型的一种评估。作者认为,在过去的三十年,中国外交正在形成静悄悄的革命,其演进方向与全球进步的潮流是一致的,即:更加慎重的军事力量的使用;更加看重市场和贸易的因素;更多介入国际组织和法律的制订与实施过程;更加注意外交学习和制度创新;也更加强调外交为民服务和以人为本的宗旨。同时,作者指出了需要改进和加强的一些地方,如:"和谐世界"理念的落实问题;对外部批评的某些态度问题;应对复杂的主权纠纷时的不足问题;外交服务对象多重性的平衡问题;相对美国而言外交应对机制的单薄问题;资源的有限性与涉外安全需求之间日益扩大的矛盾现象;以及外交公信力研讨上的不足;等等。作者在看好中国外交转型的前景的同时,指出了这种转型的任重道远。     

推进规模城镇化向人口城镇化的转型

中国的新型城镇化面临重大机遇、拥有巨大潜力,并将在推动经济社会转型发展中扮演重要的历史性角色。当前的突出问题是,如何解决城镇化质量不高、不可持续的矛盾和问题。我们的主张是,推进规模城镇化向人口城镇化的转型,以人口城镇化为主要载体、以政策和体制创新为重点,有效释放城镇化的内需潜力,争取到2020年基本形成人口城镇化的新格局。     

转型语境下刑事错案的发生与治理——以侦查环节为中心

现阶段要科学评估错案治理现状,须从更广阔的社会场域进行审视。在转型期中国,尽管侦查行为的规范化日益加强、侦查取证能力总体改善,但实践中一些运动化、行政化的错案治理方式依然存在,并是潜在的错案之源。这意味着在新刑诉法实施后,仍需在侦查程序的完善、侦查观念的转变、侦查能力的提升等方面下功夫,而不应偏重法外手段。     

Party nationalization following democratization: modelling change in turbulent times

Which political parties grow more or less statically nationalized in the immediate aftermath of a democratic transition? What accounts for these changes? This is the first broadly cross-national analysis of this dimension of stabilization of the democratic regime. It uses a sample of 64 moderate and large political parties from 19 countries in South Europe and Latin America. In the first stage of the analysis, I use growth curve models on panels of district-level, lower house, election results to test each party for changes in static nationalization. Results show that 41% of the cases grow more nationalized, about 22% grow less nationalized, and the rest show no evidence of change. Then, I test explanations of increasing static nationalization derived from (a) the competitive context; (b) the institutional context; and (c) the social structural context. I find that parties become more nationalized when (a) they are jointly programmatic and in government, and the party system is less fragmented; (b) the political system is centralized and a presidential election is concurrent; and (c) society is less ethnically fragmented. Finally, I confirm that more statically nationalized parties are associated with a higher quality of democracy.     

Radiographic age estimation based on degenerative changes of vertebrae

Age estimation is an important component of decedent identification. When assessing adult remains, anthropologists frequently use gross examination of skeletal elements, such as clavicles, ribs, and pubic symphyses. For fleshed bodies, this requires the removal of these elements and maceration prior to analysis. A new method was developed using radiographic imaging to estimate age from degenerative changes of the lower thoracic and upper lumbar vertebrae. This technique will complement anthropological age estimation methods in young and middle-aged adults and may serve as a stand-alone method for older individuals. Digital radiographs from 240 medical examiner cases were evaluated. The sample included 120 females and 120 males between the ages of 18 and 101 years. A 3-phased scoring system was used for the target vertebrae. Transition analysis was conducted on binned average scores and a Bayesian approach was used to assign age intervals. At the 90% credible interval, individuals in Bin 1 were under 36 years of age while those in Bin 3 were over 47 years of age. Individuals in Bin 2 showed too much age variation to be informative. No significant differences were found between males and females. These findings will be especially useful in the age estimation of older adults and may eliminate the need for skeletal sampling in medicolegal cases where advanced degenerative changes are radiographically observed in the lower thoracic and/or upper lumbar vertebrae. This method was developed for use on fleshed individuals but may also be applicable to skeletonized remains.     

Research on detection techniques for pattern modifications of playing cards used in illegal gambling operations

We investigated pattern-modified marked cards used in fraudulent gambling cases in Korea. These cards are printed with modifications to some of the repeated marks on the back, revealing the hand on the front and enabling fraudsters to deceive their victims. We proposed a method for identifying the modified part by first enhancing the card's color difference using an image processing technique and then calculating the similarity between the repeated basic patterns with a Siamese network. This method is fast and convenient, as it can determine the deformation with only 1 or 2 cards and can be implemented in mobile applications, allowing law enforcement officers to investigate quickly. The proposed method serves as a useful tool to aid document examiners in making judgments, as it does not require expensive equipment and effectively visualizes the alterations.     

When revolutionaries grow old: the Museveni babies and the slow death of the liberation

The liberation struggle plays a crucial role in providing legitimacy for post-liberation regimes. This was the case for the Museveni regime, for whom the liberation argument provided strong moral authority, and a legitimising foundation for its patronage and coercion strategies. But what happens when the liberation argument ‘grows old’, i.e. when the liberation generation elite starts to die or defect, and the young population is no longer impressed by the liberation argument? This article argues that in response to this changing situation, the Museveni regime almost exclusively relies on patronage and coercion, yet is increasingly devoid of the legitimising liberation foundation.     

外向型经济转型与民营经济发展研究

外向型经济的崛起和腾飞无疑为我国经济社会发展作出了重大贡献,但随着国内、国际环境的变化,我国特别是沿海地区以外向型经济为特点的发展模式迫切需要转型。本文认为,民营经济作为民本经济、富民经济,作为中国经济结构中最活跃、最具竞争力的经济成分,作为中国经济参与全球经济竞争的新生力量,理应在外向型经济转型过程中肩负起重要的历史使命。