External Intervention in Ethnic Conflict

Recently, ethnicity has received greater attention from international conflict scholars. This study explores a new aspect of how ethnic composition of states and the power of ethnic kin affect external state interventions in ethnic conflicts. Here it is hypothesized that states with dominant ethnic groups but still-significant ethnic minorities are expected to be more prone to intervention in ethnic conflict than states without one of these two characteristics. A new measure is proposed to capture such variation in ethnic composition more precisely. Looking at large-N panel data, it is found that ethnically fractionalized states with dominant ethnic groups are indeed the most likely to intervene in ethnic conflicts. Additionally, the power of the embattled ethnic kin minority, as determined by its settlement patterns in the host state, also increases the likelihood of intervention. Traditional variables like proximity and capability retain statistical significance. However, ethnic variables have the strongest effects on interventions in ethnic conflict.     

Cranial Backspatter Pattern Production Utilizing Human Cadavers

A backspatter pattern results from blood drops that travel retrograde to an applied external force. Historically, an array of animals and nonhuman objects have been used to create and study backspatter patterns. In this study, backspatter patterns captured on foam core targets that were placed 45.72 cm (18 in) behind the impact site (occipital area of the skull) were produced by cranial gunshots to human cadavers that were reinfused with fresh defibrinated bovine blood. These patterns were compared to the backspatter patterns produced by shooting blood‐soaked sponges, a typical simulant used in controlled studies of backspatter pattern production and characteristics. The backspatter pattern produced by shooting an actual human head was found to be different than those of blood‐soaked sponges in the number of stains produced, the size and size range of the stains, and the stain dispersion patterns.     

Protecting human rights: a complex story of the democratisation of the Croatian police

This paper explores the evolution of the protection of human rights in light of democratisation of the Croatian police. The story of democratisation of the Croatian police and their protection of human rights is particularly complex because of the war and its consequences. Using the grounded theory approach, the paper builds an argument that, because of the Croatian police are a part of the society at large, the way in which the police have dealt with human rights has been heavily dependent upon the larger social, political, and economic conditions, created both by domestic and international actors. The paper traces the police adherence to the protection of human rights across three distinct time periods.     

Marriage patterns in 19th-century Vila do Conde: The study of an urban centre in northwest Portugal

This article investigates marital patterns in the urban town of Vila do Conde, northwest Portugal, during the 19th century. The analysis, which is based on the application of the family reconstitution method, reveals differences in marital patterns between rural and urban settlements. It was observed that Vila do Conde displayed different patterns of marriage than those that have often been described for the northwestern region of Portugal, with an emphasis on lower levels of celibacy, as well as lower fertility rates. It was discovered that migration played a very important role in these dynamics. It is a fact that the increasing outflow of male emigrants had a distortion effect on the marriage market. Nevertheless, the influx of in-migrants to the town contributed to alleviate the adult male shortage and resulting gender imbalance, generating lower proportions of celibacy and higher levels of total fertility. Although several important publications have already identified demographic trends in many parishes of the region in focus, few have been concerned with urban parishes. This research aims to contribute to a better understanding of the population dynamics of urban centres in northwest Portugal when set within the context of a number of the structural changes specific to that region and Portugal as a whole in the 19th century.     

我国反腐败模式的变迁及其折射的社会治理理念转向

建国以来我国反腐败运动经历了四种不同的模式:权力反腐模式、规制反腐模式、综合反腐模式、预防与惩治反腐模式,不同模式之间有交叉、重合,但主旨及重心大相迥异,不同模式之间的转换不仅是历史情境的需要,也折射出社会治理理念的转向。权力反腐模式的核心是以权力压制权力,其反映的是浓郁的人治色彩。规制反腐模式是依赖法律法规和制度来反腐败,其反映的是从人治向法治的转变,但这一转变并不彻底。综合反腐模式是针对权力寻租普遍、腐败逐渐隐蔽、巨大等特点而采取的一种国家、社会、个人相结合的反腐模式,其主要特征是广大民众在反腐败中的作用得到大幅提升。预防与惩治模式严格来说不是一种独立的模式,强调惩治的同时更注重预防,立足于反腐败的同时更强调廉政建设,这一模式要求对权力深度限制与监督。     

加快县级党校发展之我见

2011年全国县级党校工作座谈会结束后,县级党校的发展迎来了新的历史机遇,如何做到与时俱进,把握时代脉搏,具有前瞻性和开放性,加快发展成了当前面临的首要任务。文章结合实际,对县级党校的发展提出了建议与对策。     

An Exploratory Analysis of Fertility Differentials in India

The association between improving economic conditions and declining growth of population has led economists and demographers to hypothesise a direct relationship between indicators of economic development and fertility rates. Using recent National Family Health Survey data and the 1991 Census to explore factors contributing to fertility rates in India, we found that economic variables explain 70 per cent of the interstate variations in India's fertility rates. However, several non-economic variables explain an even greater proportion, for example, indicators of female autonomy explain 84 per cent of the variations. Our analysis demonstrates that to successfully explain Indian fertility rates, models must rely heavily on non-economic variables.     

Peak Oil as a stimulus for a green economy transition in South Africa: Alternative liquid fuel and transport options

Abstract

While the arguments in favour of a green economy often rest on the need to reduce environmental damage, mitigate climate change and create environmentally friendly jobs, this article argues that the inevitable and possibly imminent peak and decline in world oil production provides another strong rationale for green economy policies and investments in South Africa. The South African economy has a high degree of reliance on imported petroleum fuels and evidence suggests that oil price and supply shocks – resulting from diminishing world oil exports and a decline in the energy return on investment for oil globally – are likely to have a debilitating socioeconomic impact under business-as-usual policies and behaviour patterns. Two broad strategies for mitigating the impact of increasing world oil scarcity and oil price shocks are considered. The first evaluates the prospects for developing indigenous sources of liquid fuels, including coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and biofuels, and finds that there are significant resource and environmental risks associated with these options. The second strategy involves short-term measures to reduce demand for liquid transport fuels together with a long-term shift toward electrified mass transport, supported by accelerated investments in renewable energy. The latter strategy is argued to be compatible with and necessary for a societal transition towards a green economy.     

经济犯罪的现代化变迁动力——兼析经济犯罪的防治实践

随着我国社会主义市场经济的进步和发展,社会现代化建设的水平不断提高,受经济形态和社会生产方式的影响,经济犯罪不断的出现,且形式多样,给我国经济的发展带来了极大的影响,导致经济犯罪呈现出不断变迁的趋势.引起这种变化的因素有很多,其中最主要的当属经济转型、社会结构调整以及社会控制.鉴于经济犯罪带来的巨大影响,我国政府必须要高度重视对经济犯罪的查处与防治,确保我国经济的安全,保证国民经济的正常发展.