视频侦查中多摄像头下嫌疑目标同一的概率研究

目的视频侦查中的时空轨迹信息是很多案件侦破的关键,但在证据准备和法庭质证阶段,如何使用这些信息目前并没有方法依据。本文针对视频侦查中轨迹信息的证据转化问题,开展理论分析,建立概率方法。方法结合视频侦查的典型过程,定义了摄像头下人物的人体、衣着和交通工具等特征;对不同的特征根据其出现的可能性进行针对性的概率估计以得到概率上限,对多摄像头下嫌疑人作案和逃窜过程的概率进行表示;基于图模型构造贝叶斯网络对轨迹追踪问题进行建模,并对模型利用贝叶斯网络特性进行求解,以得到似然比结果。结果结合视频侦查场景给出了问题中似然比的公式和近似计算方法。1)通过分解提出时段、时序和方向假设建立了一种时空特征概率模型分析方法;2)提出了视频图像中衣服、人体、交通工具特征的概率分析思路框架;3)得到了假设条件下的似然比结果;4)给出了假设条件对概率计算的影响,讨论了实际应用中后验比估计的方法及方法的使用限制因素。结论本文建立的理论分析方法首次为视频追踪结果的证据应用提供量化参考模型,从概率的角度解释了视频轨迹追踪结果为什么可以成为证据,有助于提升视频追踪证据的证明力:基于视频中能观察到的常见的十二个特征(体态、上衣颜色、上衣纹理、上衣款式、裤子款式、裤子颜色、鞋子款式、鞋子颜色、头发长度、摩托车款式、摩托车颜色、摩托车行李箱样式)的条件,对于具有相同特征的目标依次出现在三个摄像头下(摄像头之间没有分叉路口)的案例,计算得到的似然比(第一个摄像头下的目标与第三个摄像头下的目标为同一目标和不同目标条件下,出现给定特征的可能性之比)下限超过10;量级。     

Determination of Vehicle Speed from Recorded Video Using Reverse Projection Photogrammetry and File Metadata

The prevalence of security and in‐car video has increased the number of motor vehicle accidents captured on digital video. However, inconsistencies in how to accurately determine time and distance for vehicle speed has led to examinations with varying results. A potential solution for calculating time intervals is to use frame timing contained within many digital video file's metadata, recorded with 0.000001 sec precision. This paper examines a fatal motor vehicle accident where frame timing information was used with distance measurements from reverse projection photogrammetry to calculate vehicle speed. A margin of error was then calculated based on the accuracy in performing reverse projection photogrammetry distance measurements. The resulting speed calculation was then compared to event data recorder data and found to be within an average of ±1.43538 MPH. Using specific time intervals may lead investigators to more accurate speed calculations, specifically those involving variable frame rate video.     

视听资料的合法性审查与运用

视听资料是随着现代科学技术的发展而出现的一种新的诉讼证据。在整个证据体系中 ,视听资料具有十分重要的作用 ,并且随着科学技术的进一步发展 ,视听资料的运用将更加普遍。但是 ,在司法实践中 ,视听资料的收集往往受到很多限制。尤其是行政机关和司法机关的工作人员 ,常常曲解法律条文 ,限制当事人对视听资料的运用。为此本文着重阐明合法的视听资料的构成要件 ,以及收集视听资料的合法渠道和方式 ,以期扩大视听资料的适用范围 ,促进国家行政机关和司法机关依法行使职权     

Public commitment strategies in intergovernmental negotiations on the EU Constitutional Treaty

We analyze the impact of public commitment strategies as bargaining tools in the negotiations on the EU Constitutional Treaty using a sequential-bargaining model with incomplete information. The analysis suggests selection bias in observable public commitments with respect to the kind of issues that are publicly challenged as well as the kind of governments that will ‘go public’. Public commitments are more likely under high uncertainty over audience costs. Further, the effect of public commitments on the duration and outcome of negotiation is conditional as well. In our empirical analysis, where we analyze the intergovernmental stage of the negotiations on the European Constitutional Treaty, we find strong empirical support for each of our theoretical predictions. Governments were most likely to commit publicly if they represented a domestic constituency that was negative about the EU Constitution and, at the same time, contained many undecided respondents. Moreover, these public commitments were generally quickly accommodated. In contrast, public commitments were less likely to lead to any changes if they were made by governments representing a domestic constituency that was relatively positive about the draft Constitution or negative and decided. In the latter case, however, public statements made bargaining deadlock more likely.

网络游戏分级的法律思考

作为一种娱乐项目,网络游戏受到人们尤其是青少年的喜爱,但也给青少年带来了不良的影响.我国已经实施了事前审查,但仍不能完全解决其所带来的问题.网络游戏实行分级制,既可为青少年选择游戏提供一定的指导,减少游戏带来的不良影响,也可使游戏厂商明确发展风险.建议游戏分级标准定为国家强制性标准,由政府机关组织社会公众进行评测.     

Multi-level Games: The Serbian Government’s Strategy towards Kosovo and the EU under the Progressive Party

ABSTRACT

Since the signing of the historic ‘Brussels Agreement’ on 19 April 2013 on the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, Serbian President Aleksandar Vu?i? and the Progressive Party have oscillated between competing tensions emanating from seeking membership in the European Union and those stemming from the retention of Kosovo, including the party’s uncompromising position on non-recognition. Following two-level game theory, this paper offers a comparative analysis of the Progressive Party’s multi-level game strategy vis-à-vis Kosovo and the EU, arguing that while the initial success of the Brussels Agreement can predominantly be attributed to the rise in popular support for EU accession, Serbian policy towards Kosovo appears to be far less clear and often contradictory and therefore, Serbian government strategy cannot have been influenced by public opinion.     

Double balloon enteroscopy in children:Diagnosis,treatment,and safety

AIM:To assess the feasibility and utility of double balloon enteroscopy(DBE)in the management of small bowel diseases in children. METHODS:Fourteen patients(10 males)with a median age of 12.9 years(range 8.1-16.7)underwent DBE; 5 for Peutz-Jeghers syndrome(PJ syndrome),2 for chronic abdominal pain,4 for obscure gastrointestinal (GI)bleeding,2 with angiomatous malformations(1 blue rubber bleb nevus syndrome)having persistent GI bleeding,and 1 with Cowden‘s syndrome with multiple polyps and previous intussusc...     

Facial Soft Tissue Depth Statistics and Enhanced Point Estimators for Craniofacial Identification: The Debut of the Shorth and the 75‐Shormax

Several methods that have customarily been used in craniofacial identification to describe facial soft tissue depths (FSTDs) implore improvement. They include the calculation of arithmetic means for skewed data, omission of concern for measurement uncertainty, oversight of effect size, and misuse of statistical significance tests (e.g., p‐values for strength of association). This paper redresses these limitations using FSTDs from 10 prior studies (N = 516). Measurement uncertainty was large (>20% of the FSTD), skewness (≥0.8) existed at 11 of the 23 FSTD landmarks examined, and sex and age each explained <4% of the total FSTD variance (η² calculated as part of MANOVA). These results call for a new and improved conceptualization of FSTDs, which is attained by the replacement of arithmetic means with shorths and 75‐shormaxes. The outcomes of this implementation are dramatic reduction in FSTD complexity; improved data accuracy; and new data‐driven standards for casework application of methods.