构建政府主导型水环境综合治理机制——以云南滇池治理为例

论文基于利益博弈分析,论证了水环境治理有必要强化政府管制,单纯的市场机制和自主治理都不具有可持续性;与"自下而上"或"自上而下"机制相比较,政府主导型综合治理机制在效率和降低交易成本上更具有优势。近年来,云南滇池治理取得积极进展的经验表明,建立政府主导型综合性治理机制对提升水环境治理成效具有显著贡献。     

Markets vs. polls as election predictors: An historical assessment

Prediction markets have drawn considerable attention in recent years as a tool for forecasting elections. But how accurate are they? Do they outperform the polls, as some scholars argue? Do prices in election markets carry information beyond the horserace in the latest polls? This paper assesses the accuracy of US presidential election betting markets in years before and after opinion polling was introduced. Our results are provocative. First, we find that market prices are far better predictors in the period without polls than when polls were available. Second, we find that market prices of the pre-poll era predicted elections almost on par with polls following the introduction of scientific polling. Finally, when we have both market prices and polls, prices add nothing to election prediction beyond polls. To be sure, early election markets were (surprisingly) good at extracting campaign information without scientific polling to guide them. For more recent markets, candidate prices largely follow the polls.     

Negotiating climate legislation: Policy path dependence and coalition stabilization

This article investigates the nature of policy path dependence through analysis of climate policy formation in the United States. In 2008 the US Congress attempted to pass the Lieberman–Warner bill, a comprehensive climate and energy package that would have capped greenhouse emissions and established a nationwide cap and trade program. In the same year, California successfully enacted the Global Warming Solutions Act. This article explores the circumstances of both cases and raises the question of why legislation at the state level was successful and took such a divergent form from legislation at the federal level. The divergence of these cases is used to highlight the nature of coalition formation and policy path dependence in the legislative process. Explanations of policy tend to gravitate toward either the generalizability of game theoretic approaches or the empirical depth of case studies. This article suggests a combined approach that uses case studies to analyze the positions and motivations of actors and to then model policy development over time. The approach examines policy through the formation and negotiation of policy coalitions. Drawing on the Advocacy Coalition Framework and omnibus analysis, the approach expands these coalition theories first by analysing legislative development at the interface of legislators and constituent interest groups, and second by adding temporal dimension to the analysis. The findings suggest that policy is path dependent in that it is negotiated between coalitions that in turn create stability in the policy process and insulate policy fields from external shocks. Policy path dependence suggests that theory alone is insufficient to predict policy outcomes; policy results depend strongly on prior policy efforts, historically and socially contingent coalitions, and the resulting framing of policy possibilities.     

MORALITY,MARKETS, AND THE ASC: 2011 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY*

This Presidential Address explores the possibilities for fruitful multilevel theorizing in criminology by proposing an integration of insights from situational action theory (SAT), a distinctively micro‐level perspective, with insights from institutional anomie theory (IAT), a distinctively macro‐level perspective. These perspectives are strategic candidates for integration because morality plays a central role in both. IAT can enrich SAT by identifying indirect causes of crime that operate at the institutional level and by highlighting the impact of the institutional context on the perception‐choice process that underlies crime. Such multilevel theorizing can also promote the development of IAT by revealing the “micro‐instantiations” of macro‐level processes and by simulating further inquiry into the social preconditions for institutional configurations that are conducive to low levels of crime. Finally, drawing on Durkheim's classic work on occupational associations, I point to the potential role of professional associations such as the American Society of Criminology in promoting and sustaining a viable moral order in the advanced capitalist societies.     

中美水污染防治法比较研究

借鉴美国在利用法律手段防治水污染问题上的成功经验,从中美两国水污染防治法的立法目的和调整重点、管理体制、调控机制、管理措施和实施保障等方面对两国的水污染防治法进行了初步比较。在此基础上,对完善中国的水污染防治法提出了一些建议。     

地方水生态:牧区水文化的价值、风险与化解

在西藏牧区长期的生活中,人们形成了特有的水文化。扎西乡水文化体现出两大价值,并受到潮流化生活方式和文化的影响。对扎西乡水文化的风险化解与对水文化的引导具有可行性,要重视引导的三大要义。在实践纬度上,应着重从“生态-经济-社会”三位一体的全局中多维度考虑风险化解之途以及对地方性生态文化的引导方向与途径。     

中国大一统的历史密码破译——基于政治经济制度的阐释

中国 “大一统”国家形态的形成源于治理水患与抵御外敌所需要的国家管理能力，而其维持则需要适应性的政治经济制度设计以维持中央政权的全面掌控能力。在农业社会，国家的控制能力取决于有效的组织体系与稳定的土地税收。为此，中国历代政权经过长期调整形成了以科举制为选拔机制的核心政治密码及建立有效土地制度和税收制度的经济密码。科举制能够更多地促进社会阶层的有序流动，延缓了侵占国家权力与土地税收的大地主的崛起，而土地制度虽然为适应人口及生产状况最终走向了私有制为主的道路，但在科举制确立以后的土地兼并再未形成影响国家行政能力的门阀地主阶层，从而有效地维持了国家的统一。因此，有序社会流动与土地税收制度设计正是保持历史上中国大一统的核心政治、经济密码。     

Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research

This article analyzes the effect of the expected closeness on turnout for 56 direct-democratic votes held in Switzerland between 2012 and 2015. It is the first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets. It clarifies empirically the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes showing that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels.     

Scopic valuations: how digital tracking technologies shape economic value

How do market actors in the contemporary economy make decisions when they are uncertain of the value of what is being traded? To answer this question, this paper analyses the changing temporal and spatial orientation of economic valuations in increasingly digitalized economies, in which markets can no longer be understood as locally bound and closed sites of valuation and exchange. Drawing on ethnographic material from the fishing industry, the paper shows how digital tracking technologies link and synchronize auction markets with real-time information on fishing activities. Hence, ‘scopic media’ such as chart plotters and computer screens are not only deployed by skippers to monitor one another, but are also used as valuation devices that recontextualize local knowledge for the purpose of coping with economic uncertainty. As a consequence of this panoptic valuation regime, fishermen control their virtual identities by disciplining harvesting practices according to their buyers’ expectations.     

Ingredients of institutional reputations and citizen engagement with regulators

The purpose of this study is to examine the link between the reputational components of efficacy and moral reliability of institutions, and citizens' compliance with institutional recommendations. Research on bureaucratic reputations highlights the significance of positive political reputations based on credibility and legitimacy, but the impact of these components is not systematically isolated and studied. We draw insights from political psychology to move beyond a positive‐negative valence‐based approach of reputation, and highlight the different effect of efficacy and moral reliability components of reputation on citizens' cooperation, engagement in water saving activities, and levels of complaints. We use the Cypriot Water Authority as a case study and inquire how its institutional reputation influences Cypriot citizens' behavior regarding water use. Our data was collected via a representative national survey administered to a random sample of 800 Cypriots in the spring of 2009 and show that favorable perceptions of particular components of institutional reputation shape the levels of satisfaction with specific organizational outputs.