人口老年化进程中的老年犯罪问题初探——以浙江省老年人犯罪为例

老年(龄)化是生产力不断进步,人类社会不断发展的必然趋势。我国自1999年进入老年(龄)化社会后,老年(龄)化速度大大高于世界其他国家。在快速老年(龄)化过程中产生了包括老年犯罪在内的诸多社会问题,解决这些问题才能更好地构建社会主义和谐社会。结合浙江省老年(龄)化实际及老年(龄)化过程中老年人犯罪发展变化实际,阐述两者间关系,提出遏制老年(龄)化进程中老年犯罪的对策。     

论当代大学生思想政治教育的时代特征

当代大学生的成长正处于我国经济转型、社会转轨的特殊时期,社会转型因素增加了思想政治教育工作的不确定性,使高校的思想政治教育工作面临着许多新的挑战。加强和改进大学生思想政治教育要充分体现与市场经济、改革开放、网络化社会相适应的时代特点。作为思想政治教育工作者,只有紧密地结合时代特征、促进我国和谐社会的构建、以人为本、不断地探寻思想政治教育的新方法新手段,才能使思想政治教育工作取得成效。     

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.     

Reanalysis of the Trotter Tibia Quandary and its Continued Effect on Stature Estimation of Past‐Conflict Service Members

Forensic casework from past‐conflicts relies on the corrected historical Trotter data for stature estimation in Fordisc. For roughly 10 years’, stature estimation using this data has produced point estimates for the tibia that are on average 1.25 inches less than the other long bones. This issue was identified after applying the equations derived from Fordisc to the USS Oklahoma commingled assemblage. Reevaluation of Fordisc revealed that a correction factor of 20 mm, instead of 10 mm, was mistakenly applied to the Trotter tibia data. Historical forensic anthropology reports written at the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency were utilized to identify that the overcorrection is isolated to Fordisc 3 with an error rate of 5% of known antemortem statures falling outside of the prediction intervals that relied on the tibia. Further evaluation of the Oklahoma sample indicates the 10 mm correction is still producing point estimates less than the other long bones.     

Bone Area Histomorphometry

Quantifying the amount of cortical bone loss is one variable used in histological methods of adult age estimation. Measurements of cortical area tend to be subjective and additional information regarding bone loss is not captured considering cancellous bone is disregarded. We describe whether measuring bone area (cancellous + cortical area) rather than cortical area may improve histological age estimation for the sixth rib. Mid‐shaft rib cross‐sections (n = 114) with a skewed sex distribution were analyzed. Ages range from 16 to 87 years. Variables included: total cross‐sectional area, cortical area, bone area, relative bone area, relative cortical area, and endosteal area. Males have larger mean total cross‐sectional area, bone area, and cortical area than females. Females display a larger mean endosteal area and greater mean relative measure values. Relative bone area significantly correlates with age. The relative bone area variable will provide researchers with a less subjective and more accurate measure than cortical area.     

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0–12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation.     

Application of Enhanced Point Estimators to a Sample of In Vivo CT‐derived Facial Soft Tissue Thicknesses

Facial approximations based on facial soft tissue depth measurement tables often utilize the arithmetic mean as a central tendency estimator. Stephan et al. (J Forensic Sci 2013;58:1439) suggest that the shorth and 75‐shormax statistics are better suited to describe the central tendency of non‐normal soft tissue depth data, while also accommodating normal distributions. The shorth, 75‐shormax, arithmetic mean, and other central tendency estimators were evaluated using a CT ‐derived facial soft tissue depth dataset. Differences between arithmetic mean and shorth mean for the tissue depths examined ranged from 0 mm to +2.3 mm (average 0.6 mm). Differences between the arithmetic mean plus one standard deviation (to approximate the same data points covered by the 75‐shormax) and 75‐shormax values ranged from ?0.8 mm to +0.7 mm (average 0.2 mm). The results of this research suggest that few practical differences exist across the central tendency point estimators for the evaluated soft tissue depth dataset.     

A Computational Framework for Age‐at‐Death Estimation from the Skeleton: Surface and Outline Analysis of 3D Laser Scans of the Adult Pubic Symphysis

In forensic anthropology, age‐at‐death estimation typically requires the macroscopic assessment of the skeletal indicator and its association with a phase or score. High subjectivity and error are the recognized disadvantages of this approach, creating a need for alternative tools that enable the objective and mathematically robust assessment of true chronological age. We describe, here, three fully computational, quantitative shape analysis methods and a combinatory approach that make use of three‐dimensional laser scans of the pubic symphysis. We report a novel age‐related shape measure, focusing on the changes observed in the ventral margin curvature, and refine two former methods, whose measures capture the flatness of the symphyseal surface. We show how we can decrease age‐estimation error and improve prior results by combining these outline and surface measures in two multivariate regression models. The presented models produce objective age‐estimates that are comparable to current practices with root‐mean‐square‐errors between 13.7 and 16.5 years.     

大鼠局灶性脑挫伤后Cdk5的表达变化

目的研究大鼠受到一定钝力打击造成中度脑损伤后,3h至10d脑组织Cdk5的表达规律及法医学意义。方法建立大鼠钝力性局灶性脑挫伤模型,应用免疫组织化学技术和免疫蛋白印迹技术观察脑损伤后不同时间脑组织中Cdk5表达变化。结果正常组、假手术组脑组织有少量Cdk5表达;实验组损伤后3h组、6h组Cdk5表达增高,12h组表达明显升高(P0.05);在24h达到峰值,3d组、5d组、7d组、10d组逐渐下降,并在7d组、10d组基本降至正常,与正常组、假手术组比较基本无差异性(P0.05)。结论大鼠钝力性脑挫伤后Cdk5在挫伤脑组织周边区表达量增多,并呈现单峰变化,随时间延长基本降至正常。Cdk5表达变化可为早期脑挫伤时间推断奠定基础,提供新的参考指标。     

上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系

目的探讨汉族人上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系。方法 2014年11月~2015年11月间,在一家三甲医院数据库中选择420例汉族人的口腔锥形束CT资料,根据年龄将所有研究对象分为6个组别(8~12岁、13~17岁、18~22岁、23~27岁、28~32岁、33~37岁,每组70例,男女各15例。对所有研究对象上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径进行测量,取釉牙骨质界距根尖3/4处,分析上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的关系,比较男女上颌中切牙牙根直径。结果男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根直径比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根管径比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);男性与女性上颌中切牙牙根直径与牙根管径之比比较具有差异显著性(P0.05);不同性别间上颌中切牙牙根直径与牙根管径之比与年龄具有一定的相关性(R~2=0.623,P0.05)。结论汉族人上颌中切牙牙根直径及根管管径与年龄的变化具有相关性,且男性根管管径减小趋势比女性更高。