Do parties perceive their voter potentials correctly? Reconsidering the spatial logic of electoral competition

Political parties strive for maximizing their vote shares. One way to achieve this goal is to attract voters from competitors. A precondition for strategies aiming at attracting these voters is that parties perceive their voter potentials among their rivals' electorates correctly. Yet, hardly anything is known about such perceptions. To fill this gap, we develop analogue measures of a party's perceived and its actual voter potential for each competitor in a party system. Combining elite and mass surveys conducted in Germany, we show that perceived and actual voter potentials depend on spatial considerations but also that not all parties are able to correctly evaluate their potentials. These deviations can be traced back to differences in the perceived placement of political actors between elites and citizens. This supports the spatial logic of party competition but it also points to potential pitfalls for strategic behavior of political parties.     

The 2019 General Election in Northern Ireland: the Rise of the Centre Ground?

The experience of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland took a very different course to that of the rest of the UK and, indeed, to the pattern of electoral politics typical of the region. Coming after almost three years with no functioning devolved government, combined with intense disagreement and uncertainty about Brexit, voters were ready to give a message to the two largest parties. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP suffered losses in the election, with the headline outcome being that unionism no longer holds the majority of seats for Northern Ireland in Westminster. More generally, there was a swing from both sides towards centre ground voting, which brought significant gains for the Alliance Party and the SDLP. This article summarises the reasons for this broad trend, focussing on the conditions and electoral pacts which brought it about. It also considers what it might mean for the prospects for Irish unification, noting that a referendum on unification will only be passed by attracting votes from those who tend to see themselves as neither unionist or nationalist.     

Back to the Future: The Pulling Apart of our Towns and Cities

Growing divisions between Britain’s towns and cities have created a dilemma for the Labour Party in seeking to represent very different parts of the country. There are some who argue that Labour must choose the global networked youth—who largely reside in cities—in order to maximise its electoral chances. This is an argument that defies electoral gravity and fails to address the root causes of the gulf between towns and cities. As jobs and investment have gone into cities, many towns have seen the local population age and local economies become unsustainable. In both towns and cities there is a clamour for power to move closer to home and for the renewal of democratic institutions, offering Labour the chance to win power and end the divisions that have come to characterise British politics.     

What are we gonna be when we grow up? SYRIZA's institutionalisation and its new “governing party” role

The aim of this paper is to analyse the organizational model of one of the most successful European radical left parties, the Greek Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA). Our goal is to analyse SYRIZA's organizational transition from the electoral arena to the government (2015). Our main finding is that SYRIZA started as a socially-oriented organization led by an oligarchic dominant coalition and converted itself into a political party, characterized by a prevailing role of the party in public office/party government. Both the institutional environment and the party organization's first configuration have had an impact on this change.     

Far from Home: Conservative Leadership Selection from Heath to Cameron

The Conservative Party is the oldest of the 'mainstream' British parties, but has only elected its leader since 1965. In this article, I explain the variety of methods used by the Party to select its leader and assess the impact of 'democratisation' over time. I begin by examining the informal 'system', known as the 'magic circle', which existed until 1965, and explain how and why it came to be abandoned. I then discuss the six elections between 1965 and 1997, when the Tory leader was chosen exclusively by the Party's MPs. Finally, I assess the impact of the 'Hague rules', according to which Party members have the final say, between their adoption in 1998 and the election of David Cameron in 2005.     

对高校学生党建工作的一点思考

在新形势下,作为高校党建工作重要组成部分的学生党建工作在取得成绩的同时,也面l临着一些新的变化和情况。针对新时期高校学生党建工作中存在的问题,从开展理想信念教育、入党积极分子培养方式、严把党员入口关、加大预备期考察力度、增强党支部凝聚力、党支部书记加强学习等方面进行了深入地分析,提出完善和规范高校学生党建工作的对策。     

The Electoral Cycle and Multi-Level Voting in Germany

The aim of this contribution is to analyse whether Land elections may (have) become uncoupled from the federal electoral process, and, if they have, to explore the implications for party competition in Germany. Initially, an overview is presented of the relevant theoretical models that can help unpack the relationship between different electoral arenas. Secondly, how these ideas have been applied to national and sub-national electoral competition in Germany is outlined, before an examination of the 'fit' of the data in both the pre- and post-unification periods. We conclude with reflections on two key features that have regularly surfaced in Gordon Smith's writings: party system change and political stability.     

建党90年来中国共产党形象建设的经验与思考

建党90年来，中国共产党始终重视加强自身形象建设，坚持把代表广大人民利益作为形象建设的灵魂，把不断推动经济社会发展作为形象建设的根本，把与时俱进加强党的建设作为形象建设的主线，树立了我党在各个时期的光辉形象。在继承和发扬我党形象建设优良传统的基础上，还应适应形势任务发展变化，借鉴公共关系学理论，强化政党公关意识，发挥现代传媒作用，不断探索创新我党形象建设的形式和方法，全面提高党的执政能力、巩固党的执政地位。     

坚持实事求是 推进理论创新

党的十八大政治报告指出：“实践发展永无止境，认识真理永无止境，理论创新永无止境。”这给广大党员干部加强实践、抓好理论武装指明了方向。党员干部要不断强化理论武装，坚持实事求是，勇于实践，积极推进党的理论创新。     

从理想主义到现实主义——论日本民主党上台后对华外交政策的转变

自2009年鸠山政权执政以来,日本开启了民主党执政的新时代。鸠山内阁大幅调整日本对外政策,奉行＂友爱＂外交理念,推动中日关系一度回暖。但是其继任者菅直人首相上任后,由于国际国内各方面的因素,中日关系急转直下,尤其是在中日钓鱼岛撞船风波以后,日本现实主义的外交政策导致中日关系跌到历史低点。日本对华外交态度的转变不仅对中日两国,更对整个东北亚安全局势造成了不可估量的负面影响。