东南亚地区形势:2009年

2009年,影响东南亚地区形势最重要的外部因素,是全球金融海啸引发的发达国家经济衰退,影响的深度与广度,取决于发达国家的经济衰退持续的时间,刚刚从1997年金融危机中走出来的东南亚国家又将经受一次重大的考验.从政治层面看,东南亚在2009年将会是比较平稳的一年,印尼的大选不会出现大的波澜;泰国在经历了几年的动荡之后,人心思定,街头政治不得人心;马来西亚两大政党联盟--国民阵线和人民联盟争权夺利,但是,这种斗争将会限制在制度范围内.在地区国际关系方面,发达国家忙于国内救火,自顾不暇,而东南亚两个最大的邻居--中国和印度则是风景这边独好,东南亚地区发展进程中的中国因素和印度因素将会进一步凸显.     

对地缘政治三大常混问题的辨析

在地缘政治的研究中,存在着对地缘政治与地缘政治学、地理政治和政治地理学的混淆.地缘政治是现实政治的现象之一,地缘政治学是一种知识体系;地缘政治是围绕地理空间的控制权展开的人与人之间的关系,而地理是讲自然范畴的关系, 地理条件与地缘政治是或然关系,将地缘政治翻译成地理政治似乎欠妥;地缘政治论是政治学范畴的知识体系,政治地理学是地理学的内容之一,两者属于不同的知识领域.     

苏南农村政治精英的转型及其伦理困境

苏南地区一些出任其企业所在村党委书记的老板,为自己营造出一片可观的个人化自由政治空间。而乡镇企业的市场化、私有化和户籍约束的松动则改变了农村政治精英的基本身份,使之“去农村化”和“老板化”。他们因之以全新的姿态对作为企业战略一种延伸的村庄进行投资和治理。新的角色定位背后蕴含着一种伦理精神,它与传统集体主义的伦理关怀必然会产生内在紧张。而后者恰恰是广大村民所坚持和信守的,这就使改制后的苏南农村治理陷于一种伦理困境之中。     

Mining and subaltern politics: political struggle against neoliberal development in Bangladesh

Drawing on social movement scholarship, this paper analyses subaltern struggles against a multinational mining company. The Phulbari coal mine is the centre of contention between the mining company and local/national activists. Local concerns about the dispossession of lands and livelihoods and environmental destruction have been merged with a Leftist political agenda on the growing vulnerability of the state and national sovereignty in the Global South. A close examination of the movement's discourses suggests that a broader political struggle against resource plunder and energy imperialism has been strengthened by local community resistance to an environmentally destructive coal mine. Based on in-depth qualitative interviews, I analyse how activists have created new meanings of the conflict to confront and delegitimize hegemonic discourses of capitalist development and modernity.     

Contestation and resistance: the politics of and around transitional justice in Nepal

The shift to adopting holistic approaches in transitional justice indicates an intention to pay (greater) attention to politics in transitional justice. However, transitional justice actors frequently encounter difficulties in doing so, misread politics and misconstrue where to locate it in post-conflict contexts. Using research from Nepal I argue that there is considerable political activity taking place that challenges transitional justice on multiple scales. This research demonstrates that actors frequently seek to advance their interests and make claims utilising the process, institutions and language of transitional justice. In particular, I draw upon resistance literature and contentious politics literature to elucidate the complex relationships and interactions at the local and national level, which are often omitted from discussions about transitional justice in Nepal. Accordingly, I argue it is more useful to consider actors’ actions in relation to transitional justice on a continuum where there is co-option, resistance, contestation and compliance with a wide range of variation within each.     

Indonesia’s maritime connectivity development: domestic and international challenges

This study considers the political aspects of the Joko Widodo government’s megaproject to build an integrated marine logistic system known as the tol laut. Expanding the existing literature which gives details about the contextual obstacles faced by and the prospects for the Indonesian government to pursue its infrastructure ambitions, the study argues that notwithstanding the relevance of the tol laut for advancing the Indonesian economy, it is inevitably entangled with dynamic internal and external environments which can unfavourably distort the construction processes. This is the way of understanding the political economy of Indonesia’s development issues which allows for the juxtaposition of domestic political and international relations factors as its framework of analysis. The discussion is divided into four sections. Section one explains the conceptual and methodological foundation of the study. Section two outlines the importance of the tol laut to Indonesian national economic development. Section three looks at how the current domestic political settings pose structural hurdles to Widodo’s tol laut, and section four observes the effect of international relations of powerful regional actors and Jakarta’s diplomatic capacity to the on-going tol laut. The concluding section summarizes the findings of the study.     

Politics,sport mega events and grassroots mobilization. Anticipated triumph and unexpected failure of political elite in Poland

Sport mega events are the most prominent manifestations of the multidimensional and global interrelation between sport and politics. The purpose of the paper is to present the contrasting cases of two Polish SMEs: UEFA European Championships in football (Euro, 2012) and the bid for Winter Olympic Games Cracow 2022. This article pays special attention to the role of Polish political elite in promoting both events and to the grassroots movement that effectively ended the bidding for the latter event. It also discusses how the allegedly successful Euro 2012 tournament was presented in the public discourse in order to avoid conflicts and debates about the very idea of hosting the games. This proved unsuccessful in the latter case. This case deserves scrutiny as it is an unusual example of effective bottom up mobilization of civil society against the whole political elite.     

制度距离、文化差异与中美贸易摩擦中的权力因素——基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究

中美贸易摩擦是体系压力和美国国内因素共同作用的结果。基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究,文章采用面板负二项模型对中美两国间的制度距离、文化差异和相对实力差距的缩小等结构性变量,以及美国国内政治等单元层次的中介变量、贸易和投资等渠道变量,对中美贸易摩擦的影响进行了实证考察。研究认为,中美间军事、经济和科技实力差距的缩小即相对实力分布的变化会显著强化美国作为守成大国对中国作为崛起大国发起贸易摩擦的可能性;中美两国间的政治、经济制度距离和文化差异或价值观的不同也会显著影响中美两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性,同时,与美国政治关系良好、在制度和文化上与其接近的国家并不必然意味着与美国贸易摩擦的减少;美国国内不同政治行为体、社会行为体的利益诉求、政策偏好,与贸易的交互效应一起,会进一步增加中美两国因实力差距的缩小、制度和文化(观念)差异等体系因素或结构性变量所引发的贸易摩擦发生的概率;经济因素依然是决定中美贸易摩擦的基础性因素,中美贸易失衡、中国对美直接投资的迅速增加以及中国对美国市场渗透率的提升、美国国内经济绩效的波动、美国国内收入不平等程度的加剧,与贸易的收入分配效应一起,也会显著提升两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性。     

When long-distance relationships don't work out: Representational distance and satisfaction with democracy in Europe

We assess the impact of party representation on satisfaction with democracy. Our proposition is that such representation is not only about having a chosen party in government; citizens also derive satisfaction from having their views represented by a political party. We test this through an individual-level measure of policy (in)congruence: the ideological distance between a voter and his or her closest party. Via multi-level modelling of European Election Study data from 1989 to 2009, we find that perceived policy distance matters: the further away that voters see themselves from their nearest party – on either a left-right or a European unification policy dimension – the less satisfied they are with democracy. Notably, this effect is not moderated by party incumbency or size. Voters derive satisfaction from feeling represented by a nearby party even if it is small and out of office. Our results caution against a purely outcomes-driven understanding of democratic satisfaction.     

论冲突中的道德和法律

道德和法律的冲突来源于道德的多元化。在专制主义下 ,道德和法律的冲突的调整方式是取消冲突或放任冲突。这两种方式被历史证明是行不通的。适度冲突论是解决道德和法律冲突的设想 ,目的就是要在二者适度的冲突中推动法治不断地进步。