“印太战略”:以美印日澳的战略逻辑、利益与策略选择为分析视角

"印太战略"是美国均势+有限遏制+规制+话语诋毁的混合型战略。它意在前沿、中间地带与后方的三层构建不对称的对华遏制性力量,突破中美双边、单区域战略竞争的狭窄战略空间;在多地域与多维度孤立中国,拉拢更多国家在产业价值链、数字经济等层面与中国切割;制订基础建设投资透明化的新标准,嵌入有利于美国利益的规制;通过国际法、舆论等软性手段抹黑中国的"一带一路"与海权发展。虽然共同逻辑都是制衡中国崛起,但日澳印在策略上强调非对抗性。其中避免成为中国优先反制是日本重要的策略目标;印度在拉达克边界冲突后尚没有形成一个完全倒向美国的战略,因为这必定使其背上沉重的战略包袱,成为美国的附庸;澳大利亚作为地缘政治影响有限的中等国家,在美国反华行动中冲在最前列已使其利益严重受损。而"印太战略"与东盟所推动的包容性、合作安全理念也有着本质的区别,东盟要在"印太地区"发挥中心领导作用,定位"印太"为对话与合作区域。所以由于东盟的抵制、印日澳的消极政策,这个战略形成的攻势将很难保持可持续性,其长期前景并不看好。     

Beyond CSI: Calibrating public beliefs about the reliability of forensic science through openness and transparency

What drives public beliefs about the credibility of a scientific field? This question is increasingly important, with recent discussion of a “reproducibility crisis” affecting many fields. Such discussions are vital in forensic science, a discipline that has experienced severe scrutiny from both the media and large oversight bodies. In this paper, we make three contributions to this discussion. First, we bring together and compare several studies in which laypeople were asked about the reliability of forensic science practices. This review suggests that forensic practices do not enjoy uniformly high reliability ratings from the public and these ratings are not calibrated with the scientific consensus. We then review three empirically-tested ways that other fields are dealing with their own crises, all centred around transparency and openness. Finally, we make recommendations for how forensic science can leverage transparency and openness to improve and maintain its long-term credibility. As part of these recommendations, we find that empirical research supports the Houston Forensic Science Center’s recent claims that it has improved its credibility through openness and transparency.     

Coalition incentives and party bias in Chile

This article revisits the debate over Chile's binomial electoral rules and its consequences and examines how the new electoral system conceived by a democratic congress altered political competition. It utilizes a seat-vote model of multiparty competition to analyze party bias under the binomial rule. This approach differs substantively from prior studies of the Chilean case that focused primarily on the disproportionality of aggregate results. In contrast to earlier analyses, the findings reveal that the allocation of the seats under the binominal resulted in significant party bias benefiting the main parties of the right. This bias, however, was eliminated after the electoral reform. The new rule continues to provide majoritarian benefits to parties receiving larger shares of votes, but this effect is less pronounced than before. It is now easier for small parties to gain seats, which has increased party fragmentation. However, we show that coalition incentives, which were heralded as one of the main advantages of the binomial rule, are also significant under the new rule in use since 2017.     

中国特色社会主义理论体系的传承、发展和创新

党的十七大首次提出中国特色社会主义理论体系。中国特色社会主义理论是马克思主义中国化的最新成果。中国特色社会主义理论是具有历史传承性的,同时,又是一个开放、发展的理论体系,需要不断地发展与创新。     

APEC与多边贸易体制

区域集团是世界贸易组织最惠国待遇的一个最大例外。区域集团由于其本身固有的排他性 ,势必会对多边贸易体制产生一定的冲击。但APEC却通过自己独特的合作机制将这种消极影响减少到最低限度 ,开创了区域合作的创新之路。本文在对当前主要区域经济组织进行比较研究的基础上 ,着重分析了APEC在制度创新及其与世界贸易体制的关系。接着分析了APEC在新形势下面临的挑战及我国的对策。在我国加入世界贸易组织之际 ,强调区域集团的作用具有深远的理论意义和现实意义 ,这将使我国经济在“区域集团”和“多边贸易体制”两个轮子上快速、健康、稳定地发展。     

Evaluating academic technology transfer performance by how well access to knowledge is facilitated––defining an access metric

Why should research institutions engage in technology transfer? Some say it is about the money. Others say it is about public service and benefit. In the end, we measure what we value. If we only measure money, we confound the non-profit mission of the research institution. If we measure economic impact, the non-profit technology transfer office is often expected to become the economic developer, confusing real estate and business development with technology transfer, often without additional funding. These mission strains lead to overwhelm, fatigue, service shortcomings, and unhappy customers across all classes of stakeholders. This article suggests a return to center for academic technology transfer offices (TTOs) by focusing on a most important question for drivers of our present global knowledge economy––how well does a TTO facilitate access to knowledge protected by intellectual property of its faculty and institution? This article proposes that academic technology transfer performance should be evaluated by how well a TTO avails access to knowledge. Given that performance measures are also referred to as “metrics,” we call this preferred outcomes orientation an access metric.     

从《意见》看我国公开审判制度的再完善

《关于加强人民法院审判公开工作的若干意见》中提出的每一项具体措施都是针对司法实践中制约当事人诉讼知情权的突出问题而制定的。这将更加有力地维护当事人的诉讼权利,促进司法的公正、高效和权威,使司法审判为和谐社会的构建提供强有力的保障。但仍存在不足之处。对此,应从我国国情出发,借鉴国外及国际立法,使我国的公开审判制度既符合现代诉讼的规律和要求,又符合我国的立法环境。     

军队从政坛的退出与韩国社会转型:基于自然政府的视角

文章利用诺斯等人发展起来的基于自然政府的精英主义理论框架,重点讨论了对军队的政治控制与韩国从有限准入向开放准入社会转型之间的关系。分析表明,从20世纪60年代初开始,一批围绕朴正熙和全斗焕的军事精英通过建立一个包括军队官员、政党政治家、高级政府官员和资本家阶层在内的统治联盟,从整体上控制国家和社会,从而重建了韩国的有限准入社会秩序。然而这个相对稳定的社会秩序不是一成不变的,随着经济的快速发展和相应的社会结构的变化,社会反对势力尤其是中产阶级和工人阶层不断成长,军人执政联盟最终自掘坟墓,被迫于20世纪80年代末从政坛退出并将其归还给市民社会。沿着这一主题,文章分析了韩国对军队的政治控制过程及竞争性政治和经济市场的出现,指出两种市场的建立标志着韩国社会转型的完成。     

用马克思交往理论解读我国改革开放三十年

生产力是人类社会发展的最终决定力量,而生产力的发展进步是以人与人之间的交往为前提的。一定的生产力状况要求与之相匹配的“交往”,生产力的发展促进交往的不断进步,交往的拓展又促进生产力的发展。交往是社会生产的前提,不仅确保了生产力的纵向传承,更促进了生产力的横向传播。生产力的发展则为交往的发展进步提供必要的物质保障和持续前进的客观动力。改革的对象是既有的不合理制度,为交往的发展和深化创造可能;交往的发展则促进了生产力的快速进步甚至飞跃。改革开放的历史从某种意义上说就是交往的发展史。     

实现我国经济主动权的必要性与战略布局——关于应对当前国际金融危机的思考

自我国采取市场化道路和对外开放政策以来,总体经济发生了翻天覆地的变化,总量经济规模日益壮大,经济改革取得了世人瞩目的成绩.然而,我国高度的对外开放和对外依存度,也使我国的经济发展陷入某种被动,造成一些宏观调控的被动局面.当前国际金融危机爆发,以及对我国经济造成的严重冲击,使得如何取得经济主动权显得更加突出.分析我国经济被动的一些侧面与表现,认为一个崛起中的经济大国必须争取经济主动必要性诉求,并提出了为取得经济及经济政策主动权的思路和相关战略布局的具体措施.