Institutional determinants of the largest seat share

The degree of predominance of the largest party in a representative assembly affects government formation and survival. The seat share of the largest party, in turn, is constrained by the interaction of assembly size and electoral district magnitude in the following way. When all S seats in an assembly are allocated in districts of magnitude M, a logical quantitative model proposes that the largest fractional share is s₁ = (MS)^−1/8. As a curve, the model is found to fit with R² = 0.509, considering data from the averages of 46 periods in 37 countries, during which the electoral rules were essentially steady. As a worldwide average, the expression s₁(MS)^1/8 = 1 holds within 1%. Deviations from this average express the impact of various country-specific political and socio-cultural factors that can be investigated once the basic institutional constraints are controlled-for. This means that the degree of largest party predominance may be engineered to hover around a desired average by adjusting assembly size, and district magnitude, while keeping country-specific factors in mind.     

从一起行政案件看信赖保护原则

《行政许可法》第一次通过立法明确了信赖保护原则,必将对我国政府的执法理念、执法方式以及行政相对人合法权益的保护带来深刻的影响。     

做好职工思想政治工作是工会的政治责任

职工思想政治工作是党的思想政治工作的重要组成部分,协助党政做好职工思想政治工作是工会的政治责任。     

法治主义与管理现代化问题探析

传统中国社会之政治管理与经济管理建基于人治文化之上。近代以来,西方科学传入中国,但迄今为止,管理科学在实践上多被视作为一种技术科学,因而与法治文明很难确立起有效的现实联系。全球化在即、后现代化来临,随着中国“入世”,未来阶段我国社会现代意义上的政治管理、经济管理、文化管理以及国家安全职能管理均当建主在全方位的宪政与法治文明历史基石之上。     

Popular initiatives in Uruguay: confidence votes on government or political loyalties?

Among stable democracies, Uruguay is one of the most prodigious users of direct democratic devices at the national level. If we analyze the relationship between the share of “yes” votes received by any popular initiative and the share of votes received by politicians who politically supported it, we observe a strikingly high positive correlation of 0.9. Explaining this correlation is the central objective of this paper. Three alternative hypotheses are plausible: First, such a correlation could be a spurious association due to aggregation bias. Second, PI results could be reflections of economic conditions. Third, Uruguayans are extremely consistent in following their political parties' advice. This paper finds that when Uruguayans go to the polls to vote on a popular initiative, their vote choice is primarily the result of their party loyalty, rather than their reaction to economic conditions. In testing my hypotheses I rely on the following statistical methods: King's “Ecological Inference,” multivariate regression, and path analysis. The data come from seven popular initiatives in Uruguay since 1985 (133 observations).     

The Structure and Stability of Externalizing and Internalizing Problem Behavior During Early Adolescence

The first aim of this study was to examine the structure of externalizing and internalizing problem behavior during early adolescence. Our second aim was to determine the stability of these problems for boys and for girls over time. A total of 650, 13–14-year-olds filled out (an expanded version of) the Youth Self-Report [YSR; Manual for the Youth Self-Report and 1991 Profile. Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington] 2 times with a 1-year interval. By using confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) to test a series of competing models, a hierarchical model provided the best representation of the structure of problem behavior at both Time 1 and Time 2: externalizing and internalizing problem behavior represent distinct aspects but the model also demonstrates the existence of comorbidity at a higher level. This model appeared to be stable over time for both boys and girls. The relative stability of problem behavior was found to be high for boys and girls. Absolute stability for both externalizing and internalizing problems appeared to be higher for boys scoring in the lower range of problem behavior. Senior Researcher, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Received PhD in social sciences, University of Amsterdam. Major research interests include problem behavior, family relations, and peer relations during adolescence. Full Professor, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Received PhD in social sciences: child and family studies, from University of Nijmegen. Major research interests include adolescent social development, problem behavior, and family relations during adolescence. Assistant Professor, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Received PhD in psychology, University of Amsterdam. Major research interests include family influence on childhood illness and problem behavior.     

公安思想政治教育中"逆反心理"的抑制与调节

反观公安基层思想政治教育的实践可知,"逆反心理"现象尽管是极个别的,但仍是实现思想政治教育目标的一大障碍.如何掌握抑制和调节"逆反心理"的基本方法,认真加以解决,是新时期公安思想政治教育必须正视的问题.     

改革是社会主义中国的强国之路——邓小平改革理论探析

改革是邓小平理论最重要的内容,是决定当代中国命运的历史性决策,是新时期我国最鲜明的特征。本文系统探讨分析了邓小平关于我国社会主义改革的必然性、迫切性,改革的对象、目标和性质,以及改革同发展与稳定的关系。这对于深入学习邓小平理论,深化我国改革具有重要的现实意义。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

构建新型的政府与媒体关系——政治文明生态下的媒体运用

在建设社会主义政治文明的进程中,新闻媒体在国家的政治和民主生活中发挥着重要的作用。与此同时,执政党对新闻媒体的运用能力以及媒体与受众之间的沟通技巧都在提高,新闻媒体也从党的喉舌这一执政工具转变为政府与人民群众之间沟通的桥梁。在建设社会主义政治文明的语境下,必须不断探索适应民主政治发展的新型媒体关系,做好舆论引导工作。