关于"三农"问题的理论思考

只有改变原有的增长机制和发展模式,调整国民收入再分配格局,转换政府的职能,改革农村的治理结构,确立促进农村经济、社会、政治、文化综合发展的科学的发展观,并辅之以切实可行的政策措施,"三农"问题才能得到根本解决.     

WTO背景下中国行政法治理念之转变

“入世”不仅是我国经济发展的重要里程碑,同时也是我国行政法治建设的重要里程碑。“思想是行动的先导”,为适应WTO规则,我们必须转变行政法治理念,实现从“管理”行政向“服务”行政、“治民”行政向“治官”行政、“万能”行政向“有限”行政、“黑箱”行政向“阳光”行政、“命令”行政向“契约”行政的转变。     

The Future Climate Regime: A Regional Comparison of Proposals

This paper compares and clarifies differences revealed in proposals from different regions on a future multilateral climate regime, after the year 2012. More than 100 articles in English were collected, categorized according to the lead authors region, and then reviewed to identify the general tendencies of each region. Proposals on emission allocation rules were the most popular in Europe, while rules related to international emissions trading dominated proposals from the United States. Few articles came from other Annex I countries, but these generally provided only the most basic aspects of a future regime. Meanwhile, concerns for equity and the relevance of any new regime in terms of sustainable development were clear in proposals from non-Annex I countries. Differences among regions were considered to be a reflection of current circumstances in each authors region. The capacity and culture of authors in some regions were considered to be other possible factors in differences. The paper concludes that recognition of regional background that formulate respective preferences and concerns regarding a future climate regime will be important to help reach a multilateral agreement in future official negotiations.     

论唐代税收体系和结构的发展变化

以德宗建中元年租庸调制的废弃和两税法的实行为分界,唐代税收体系和税收结构呈现出前后两个时期的鲜明特点。唐前期的租庸调制继承并总结了北魏隋朝以来的租调制,唐后期两税法和多种工商业税的推行则全面开启了征收资产税的法制化新里程。唐代国家税收体系和税收结构总体呈现出的由租庸调农业税为主向多元资产税并存的转化变动特点,对宋代以后的国家税收形态产生了重大的影响,也体现了唐代社会乃至中古封建社会的经济变动和社会发展。     

五四时期国人生育观念的嬗变

五四时期是近代社会和思想文化发生重要变革的时期,是妇女解放运动得到空前广泛深入发展的时期。人们探讨妇女问题涉及到许多方面,其中包括生育节制问题。一些开明人士就生育节制对于妇女解放、社会进步和人种改良的意义提出了有价值的看法,在推动妇女解放运动和社会变迁方面发挥了积极作用。     

埃斯特拉达：菲律宾特色民主的产物与替罪羊

菲律宾被罢黜总统埃斯特拉达（以下称埃氏）是菲律宾历届当选总统中得票率最高的“民选”总统,曾被菲律宾人评价为继50年代马克赛赛总统之后最受群众欢迎的总统。然而,在执政后仅一年多便遭致来自各派势力的激烈反对,并成为亚洲第一位遭受弹劾的总统,最终在民变、政变、军变的压力下黯然交出了政权。埃氏作为民选总统,政治生涯在任期仅二年半期间发生了如此戏剧性的变化,其中缘由值得深思。本文试图从菲律宾特色民主为出发点,探索埃氏这位民选总统倒台的原因,并对菲律宾特色民主“EDSA第二次人民力量”的后遗问题进行一些初步的探讨。     

论宪法在依法治国中的地位与作用

依法治国的核心是依宪治国,实现依法治国,建设社会主义法治国家,必须树立宪法的权威性,切实保障宪法实施。为发挥宪法在依法治国中的作用,要明确宪法和法律的关系,要大力宣传宪法,培养和增强全体公民的宪法意识和法治精神,强调国家机关及其工作人员要带头遵守和执行宪法,要健全和完善宪法监督制度,特别是建立违宪追究机制,把宪法的各项规定落到实处,以大力推进依法治国的进程。     

Urban Change and Policing: Mass Private Property Re-considered

This article examines a key explanation for the growth of private policing in North America and Western Europe - the influential mass private property thesis (Shearing and Stenning 1981). The discussion of private policing in Western Europe still tends to be heavily influenced by theories developed in the North American context, theories which may be problematic in the contrasting legal, social and economic contexts of Western European nations. The development of more Eurocentric theories has to date been inhibited by the relative paucity of empirical data on the rise of private policing in European countries. Recent research in Britain (Jones and Newburn 1998b) has begun to address this problem, and to map out some important contrasts with the North American experience. By considering these contrasts, it is possible to identify some key areas for future research on private policing in European countries and thus provide a more contextually-grounded series of explanations for what is happening to policing.Joseph Rowntree Foundation Professor of Urban Social Policy     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

论我国政府职能的转变——以政府行政手段的转变为研究视角

当前，我国政府在运用行政手段对社会经济进行管理和调节时还存在着较多的问题，影响了国家经济的正常运行，行政手段的转变成为必然。实现我国政府行政手段转变的路径主要有六个方面：宏观调控与微观管理相结合；有限广度与合理深度相结合；政府主导与社会参与相结合；行政成本与行政绩效相结合；刚性行政与柔性行政相结合；依法行政与行为救济相结合。