台湾地区2020年“二合一”选举结果及其对政党政治的影响

论文分析2020年台湾地区“二合一”选举结果及其对政党政治的影响。根据2016年以来三次选举中不同政党得票情况的起伏变化,观察“蓝、绿”和南北政治光谱的周期性变化规律,评估政党内部因素和外部环境对岛内选举结果的短期效应和长期影响,进而展望台湾政党政治的未来发展趋势。     

Voter perceptions of parties’ left–right positions: The role of party strategies

Left–right semantics help voters simplify the complex political reality as they reduce party views on a variety of issues to a single dimension. Less studied, however, is the question of how voters arrive at parties’ left–right positions and how parties can influence voter perceptions. In this article, I demonstrate that the party can shape the voter’s understanding of the content of its left–right ideology by using three strategies: avoidance, ambivalence, or ambiguity. Specifically, the party may avoid or de-emphasize, embrace a conflicting position, or becloud its position on the controversial issue; by so doing, it induces voters to place less weight on this issue when perceiving the party’s left–right position. The empirical analysis connects voter and party data from 21 European democracies in the period 1996–2014 and finds empirical support for the effectiveness of these strategies. In particular, the study finds robust empirical evidence that strategic avoidance, ambivalence, and ambiguity strongly moderate the association between the party’s perceived ideological brand and its underlying issue content.     

Rejecting representation? Party systems and popular support for referendums in Europe

Under what conditions do citizens favor deciding political issues by popular vote? Models of support for popular vote processes usually consider the influence of individual attitudes such as political trust and interest in politics. But much less is known about the effect of institutional variables on support for popular vote processes. This article builds on research showing that disaffection with elected officials shapes support for referendums by considering the influence of the party system. First, an analysis of multilevel data from twenty-four European democracies indicates that individuals are more supportive of referendums in countries with fewer effective political parties. Second, a mediation analysis provides evidence that the number of parties influences referendum support through individual-level political trust and external efficacy. Where there are fewer viable parties, feelings that elected officials are unresponsive tend to increase popular support for referendums. These findings suggest a trade-off between available representation by political parties and support for direct influence over public policy.     

Do parties perceive their voter potentials correctly? Reconsidering the spatial logic of electoral competition

Political parties strive for maximizing their vote shares. One way to achieve this goal is to attract voters from competitors. A precondition for strategies aiming at attracting these voters is that parties perceive their voter potentials among their rivals' electorates correctly. Yet, hardly anything is known about such perceptions. To fill this gap, we develop analogue measures of a party's perceived and its actual voter potential for each competitor in a party system. Combining elite and mass surveys conducted in Germany, we show that perceived and actual voter potentials depend on spatial considerations but also that not all parties are able to correctly evaluate their potentials. These deviations can be traced back to differences in the perceived placement of political actors between elites and citizens. This supports the spatial logic of party competition but it also points to potential pitfalls for strategic behavior of political parties.     

The 2019 General Election in Northern Ireland: the Rise of the Centre Ground?

The experience of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland took a very different course to that of the rest of the UK and, indeed, to the pattern of electoral politics typical of the region. Coming after almost three years with no functioning devolved government, combined with intense disagreement and uncertainty about Brexit, voters were ready to give a message to the two largest parties. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP suffered losses in the election, with the headline outcome being that unionism no longer holds the majority of seats for Northern Ireland in Westminster. More generally, there was a swing from both sides towards centre ground voting, which brought significant gains for the Alliance Party and the SDLP. This article summarises the reasons for this broad trend, focussing on the conditions and electoral pacts which brought it about. It also considers what it might mean for the prospects for Irish unification, noting that a referendum on unification will only be passed by attracting votes from those who tend to see themselves as neither unionist or nationalist.     

Back to the Future: The Pulling Apart of our Towns and Cities

Growing divisions between Britain’s towns and cities have created a dilemma for the Labour Party in seeking to represent very different parts of the country. There are some who argue that Labour must choose the global networked youth—who largely reside in cities—in order to maximise its electoral chances. This is an argument that defies electoral gravity and fails to address the root causes of the gulf between towns and cities. As jobs and investment have gone into cities, many towns have seen the local population age and local economies become unsustainable. In both towns and cities there is a clamour for power to move closer to home and for the renewal of democratic institutions, offering Labour the chance to win power and end the divisions that have come to characterise British politics.     

What are we gonna be when we grow up? SYRIZA's institutionalisation and its new “governing party” role

The aim of this paper is to analyse the organizational model of one of the most successful European radical left parties, the Greek Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA). Our goal is to analyse SYRIZA's organizational transition from the electoral arena to the government (2015). Our main finding is that SYRIZA started as a socially-oriented organization led by an oligarchic dominant coalition and converted itself into a political party, characterized by a prevailing role of the party in public office/party government. Both the institutional environment and the party organization's first configuration have had an impact on this change.     

Far from Home: Conservative Leadership Selection from Heath to Cameron

The Conservative Party is the oldest of the 'mainstream' British parties, but has only elected its leader since 1965. In this article, I explain the variety of methods used by the Party to select its leader and assess the impact of 'democratisation' over time. I begin by examining the informal 'system', known as the 'magic circle', which existed until 1965, and explain how and why it came to be abandoned. I then discuss the six elections between 1965 and 1997, when the Tory leader was chosen exclusively by the Party's MPs. Finally, I assess the impact of the 'Hague rules', according to which Party members have the final say, between their adoption in 1998 and the election of David Cameron in 2005.     

对高校学生党建工作的一点思考

在新形势下,作为高校党建工作重要组成部分的学生党建工作在取得成绩的同时,也面l临着一些新的变化和情况。针对新时期高校学生党建工作中存在的问题,从开展理想信念教育、入党积极分子培养方式、严把党员入口关、加大预备期考察力度、增强党支部凝聚力、党支部书记加强学习等方面进行了深入地分析,提出完善和规范高校学生党建工作的对策。     

监狱严管效能渐趋式微及对策——从刑罚宽严相济视角解读

对极少数抗拒改造、行为恶劣的罪犯实施严管是保证监狱改造秩序,促进这部分罪犯改恶从善的必要惩戒措施,就狱内违法违纪的惩戒而言,它的指向并非是绝大多数积极改造的群体,它涉及刑事处罚的再犯罪毕竟少之又少,故严管措施确有其主流手段及相对严厉的惩戒效能。但是我们越来越体会到执法管理者的力不从心,严管罪犯的"不过如此"心态,严管效能渐趋式微。通过数据统计和理性分析,从宽严相济的视角出发,在罪犯心理、监狱相关措施、执法体系及教改手段等层面进行诱因探求,并在对策层面作一些探索,具有现实意义。