无人武器变革及其对非对称安全关系的影响

新军事变革以来,无人武器在作战体系中发挥越来越显著的作用,得到各国的高度重视。历经百年演进,无人武器已具备侦察跟踪、试探诱骗、精确打击和支援保障四大功能。现有无人武器存在依赖遥控和自主水平低下等问题,这是制约其军事潜力发挥的主要瓶颈。未来,“网络式自主化”将成为无人武器变革的突破方向,带来“全体系”“广覆盖”“快反应”和“强协同”四大优势。叠加无人武器“零伤亡”特性所蕴含的政治影响力,弱者基于“抵消与杀伤”策略的抗争能力将受到质变挑战,同时原有差距会发生量变增大。假如缺乏科技和政治上的有力制衡,在技术垄断与社会变迁的双重影响下,非对称安全关系发生恶性演变的风险将显著增加。在“市场化战争”中,伤亡成本降低导致强权政治缺乏约束,低风险优势鼓励政客做出冒险决策,战争伦理的沦丧扭曲公众对非对称战争的认知,而弱者的极限求生手段还可能造成核扩散等“次生危害”。在西方主导的军备控制合作逐渐式微的背景下,中国需要以总体设计统筹无人武器的研发与实践,积极开发反制技术,并争取主导相关军控提议。     

国家治理体系现代化的主体之维

国家治理主体是国家治理体系的组成部分,具有多元性、拟制性、平等性等特征。与集中统一的管理不一样,国家治理强调多元主体的共治格局。政党、国家、政府、社会组织、经济组织、公民等都是参与国家治理的主体。从法学的角度看,这些主体都是法律拟制的产物,按照社会契约论都应以平等身份参与治理。以权力、权利主体作为依据,可把国家和社会的治理主体分为官、民两类。以此作为国家治理的主体来构建法律关系,可以发现权力冲突、权力与权利的冲突、权利冲突构成了法治国家、法治政府、法治社会所要解决的主要问题,也是国家治理的主体之维所要重点探讨的理论问题。     

Reforming best interests: the road towards supported decision-making

Decisions under the Mental Capacity Act (MCA) may be made in a person’s best interest. This concept is objective, unclear and places discretion in the hands of the decision-maker. Currently, a person’s wishes, feelings, beliefs and values are not accorded primacy status amongst the checklist of factors to be considered under Section 4 MCA. In 2017, the Law Commission (LC) in their report on Mental Capacity and Deprivation of Liberty proposed amending the best interest test under Section 4 of the MCA to require the decision-maker to ascertain wishes and feelings and elevate the status of the ascertained wishes and feelings amongst the other factors under Section 4. These proposals, contained in a Draft Bill, would be of general application under the Act. This paper argues that the trajectory begun by Lady Hale in the Supreme Court in Aintree in asserting the individual at the heart of her destiny and the LC proposals are to be welcomed but do not go far enough to be aligned with the principle of supported decision-making set out in international frameworks, such as the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.     

Transnational governance of cybersecurity: policy challenges and global inequalities in cyber capacity building

Abstract

Connectivity infrastructure is constantly expanding, increasing internet access across countries, regions and socio-political contexts. Given the fast-changing geography of the internet, there is a growing demand to strengthen cyber capacity beyond national frameworks, in order to develop a transnationally coherent and coordinated governance approach to cybersecurity. In this context, cyber capacity building initiatives are increasingly central in international debates, with the ambition to support countries in the Global South in fostering their cybersecurity strategy from technical and policy perspectives. This article discusses the key factors explaining states’ efforts to enhance their cyber capacity. Based on a cross-national quantitative research approach, the findings contradict international relations (IR)-derived approaches to cybersecurity, which assume that countries develop their cyber capacity according to external security threats, domestic politics or norms. In line with existing research on the role that science plays in policymaking processes more broadly, our results suggest instead that a country’s science and technical knowledge is the most robust explanation for that state’s cyber capacity level. These findings emphasise the need for policymakers to support countries in the Global South in developing their cyber capacity beyond national security paradigms by strengthening education and technical skills in contexts lacking in this resource.     

Fighting for survival: responding to state capacity and terror group end

ABSTRACT

The well-established argument in the literature suggests that the higher state capacity is associatedwith the lower chance of experiencing civil conflict or higherchance of defeating the violent non-state groups. However, theliterature does not sufficiently address how these groups respondto increasing state capacity, and how their responses to that shapethe dynamic of political violence. I investigate the impact of statecapacity on terrorist group termination by exploring the waysterrorist groups respond to increasing state capacity. I argue thatincreasing state capacity might lead to a set of responses fromthe terror group in a way that it might induce the group to producemore terrorist violence to show that the group can still persist. Itmay also encourage the group to provide positive and negativeincentives to its constituents in order to rehabilitate its physicalcapacity to operate, and to prevent a shift of popular support a wayfrom the group towards to the government. Thus, such responsesof the group will decrease the likelihood of its terror campaign. Ialso expect that these arguments are especially relevant for ethnicor religious terror groups. The results of the empirical analysessupport these theoretical expectations.     

The Structure of Material Evidence Authentication Rules

The authentication rules of material evidence is very important for justice. The core of authentication system of real evidence is storage chain rules. We can only accept the evidence in the condition of legally custodian, evidence collected under legal procedure, the transfer without delay, the transport under control, the suitable environment. The authentication system of real evidence also contents the exception of storage chain rules.     

广西中越国际河流区水资源承载力评估分析

广西中越国际河流区的水资源开发利用,越来越成为关系到广西边境地区经济社会发展的重要问题,成为关系到中越两国边境和睦与边境和谐的大问题.进行边境地区水资源承载力评估分析,有助于为边境地区水资源的可持续利用、实施水资源安全战略提供参考依据     

大力提升警情处置能力之管见

当前,铁路治安形势和安全维稳形势比以往更加复杂,警情发生接连不断,处置难度越来越高,因此,铁路公安机关要立足现实斗争和实战需求,不断更新警情处置理念,始终做好应急准备,规范指挥处置流程,严把重点关键环节,健全应急联动机制,切实做到及时高效处置。     

Coercive capacity and the durability of the Chinese communist state

Why has the Chinese communist state remained so durable in an age of democratization? Contrary to existing theories, this article argues that the strong state coercive capacity has survived the authoritarian rule in China. We demonstrate that the Chinese Communist Party has taken deliberate actions to enhance the cohesion of its coercive organizations—the police, in particular—by distributing “spoils of public office” to police chiefs. In addition, the state has extended the scope of its coercion by increasing police funding in localities where the state sector loses control of the population. We use and rely on mixed methods to test this theory.     

当代中国政治体制改革的演进逻辑

我国政治体制改革的思路主要立足于以下三个方面:选择适当的政治改革模式,选择恰当的改革时机,找准改革的突破口。经过30年的改革摸索,我国政治体制改革虽然取得了巨大的成就,但政治体制改革的步伐较慢。十八大报告中再次强调要更加注重改进党的领导方式和执政方式,保证党领导人民有效治理国家,这意味着今后政治体制改革的重点将是加强执政党执政能力的建设。