Adoption of comprehensive risk management in local government

In the aftermath of large company failures in the early 2000s, there emerged a new wave of efforts to enhance risk management (RM) and control in enterprises. The normative RM model has been promoted widely to all organisations, including public sector organisations. Using survey data, this article describes and explains the diffusion and adoption of RM innovation in local government in Finland. Our survey results support the argument that if comprehensive RM is not obligatory, it is not widely used in local government. Our analysis reveals that financial constraints explain to some extent the existence of comprehensive RM in municipalities, while structural factors such as the size of municipalities do not, even though RM is slightly more advanced in larger rather than smaller local governments. Slow adoption indicates that comprehensive RM as a managerial innovation lacks immediate benefit when assessed against the efforts and costs of its introduction and maintenance.     

The logic of interdisciplinary studies

In this article, I argue that emerging economies are systematically becoming more susceptible to both currency and banking crises after financial liberalisation (FL). Using data for 27 emerging economies from 1973 to 1998, univariate and multivariate analyses indicate that the likelihood of currency crises and banking crises increase after FL. In particular, liberalisation allows more liquidity to enter an emerging economy, which finds its way into productive and speculative projects. What is common to both types of crises is a significant increase in speculative financing, thereby increasing the chance for borrower default. Thus, the outflow of international capital becomes more likely. The chance of a crisis occurring in response to changes in short-term loans is greater after FL than before. Similarly, the chance of a currency crisis occurring following a currency overvaluation is larger after FL than before. In comparison, the likelihood of a banking crisis occurring in response to an overvalued currency remains the same. Finally, the results show that the chance of a currency crisis declines over time, while the chance of a banking crisis increases after FL.     

How Efficient are Africa's Emerging Stock Markets?

The development of financial institutions has been viewed in recent years as critical to the economic development process. This research uses recent data from the eight largest African stock markets to test whether these markets meet the criterion of weak-form stock market efficiency with returns characterised by a random walk. Results are then compared with similar tests on emerging stock markets in South-east Asia and Latin America. Conclusions from the research indicate that test results for weak-form efficiency in the emerging African stock markets compare favourably with those performed on other emerging stock markets.     

Understanding the Accumulation of Local Government Savings: A Dynamic Analysis

Government savings can be a conundrum that perplexes taxpayers. Excessive savings indicate that taxpayers either pay unnecessarily high taxes, or they do not receive adequate returns on services. Insufficient savings leave government officials little financial flexibility. The Great Recession and its aftermath have renewed interest in understanding government savings. This article uses dynamic panel modeling to analyze the determinants of municipal discretionary savings. Results show that risk factors are the primary drivers of municipal savings, and high-risk factors have greater impact on the amount of savings. This finding confirms organization theory’s view of savings as a crucial buffer against risk.     

Joint Default Probabilities and Sovereign Risk

The assessment of sovereign risk is of crucial importance for international lenders and investors. Many existing sovereign risk approaches are opaque and heavily rely on subjective choices. In general, they lack a theoretical basis. To assess sovereign risk, we use the Merton model in which a loan defaults if the value of a firm's assets falls below the value of its debt. In a portfolio context, this implies that default correlations warrant the utmost attention. We analyze defaults for 37 countries during the period 1970–1998. We find that sovereign default correlations are low. Joint defaults are highest in Central and Eastern Europe. They are intermediate in Latin America and they are low in (Southeast) Asia.     

俄罗斯经济转型过程中通货膨胀问题的货币解释

对俄罗斯经济转型过程中的持续高通胀的解释是一个具有重要理论和现实意义的问题。通过对俄罗斯经济转型以来通货膨胀成因的分析,可以发现:作为货币现象的通货膨胀在转型时期有更复杂的决定因素,其中,制度结构和金融系统效率是基础,货币政策选择发挥着关键作用;俄罗斯不同时期的货币供给和货币需求在复杂的制度变迁背景下难以相互协调,是高通胀得以持续的主要原因;货币政策由汇率目标制向通货膨胀目标制的过渡是俄罗斯2008年金融危机后成功控制通货膨胀的关键所在。这些发现对我国通货膨胀的政策选择具有重要的启示。     

广西北部湾经济区金融支撑体系研究

广西北部湾经济区金融支撑体系建设存在诸如金融运行环境差、金融体系不完善、金融市场结构单一、金融创新不足、金融开放程度低以及金融合作不够等问题,因此,构建包括金融组织、金融协调、金融服务、金融开放、金融合作以及金融生态等功能齐全的金融支撑体系,是促使广西北部湾经济区可持续发展的重要保障。     

中国-东盟会计准则国际趋同与金融风险防范研究

本文分析了中国-东盟自由贸易区会计准则国际趋同背景和现状,研究会计准则国际趋同对金融风险的防范效用,指出中国-东盟会计准则进一步国际趋同能够更好地防范中国-东盟自由贸易区的金融风险,保障各国金融安全和资本市场的稳定。     

The Silence of the Sirens

Risk is a projection of a specific temporality performed by the observer. However, this projection is doomed to impossibility because of the prohibiting problems of time, causality, subjectivity and relativity of risk. The observer is left only with a castrated projection that defies the role of science as a pedestal for the projection and institutes negation as its driving force. This projection is materialised within the Law in the form of the Precautionary Principle. Risk evokes undesired dualisms, especially the one between Idealism and Operationalism. The essay attempts to bring the two together by extrapolating the hard appearance of the legal system as seen through Luhmann’s autopoiesis and the need for critical openness of a contextualised environmental law. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中央银行法律问题研究

本文从法学和经济学的角度全面深入地阐述了中央银行法律制度的两个基本问题：中央银行的职能和货币政策规范。本文认为,中央银行不应当承担金融监管的职能,但中央银行与金融监管机构应保持紧密联系并相互协调;货币政策的特点和金融创新的发展只能授予中央银行决定货币政策的自由裁量权,但应创设新的法律制度确保该自由裁量权不被滥用。