How do coalition signals shape voting behavior? Revealing the mediating role of coalition expectations

Existing empirical research suggests that there are two mechanisms through which pre-electoral coalition signals shape voting behavior. According to these, coalition signals both shift the perceived ideological positions of parties and prime coalition considerations at the cost of party considerations. The work at hand is the first to test another possibility of how coalition signals affect voting. This coalition expectation mechanism claims that coalition signals affect voting decisions by changing voters' expectations about which coalitions are likely to form after the election. Moreover, this paper provides the first integrative overview of all three mechanisms that link coalition signals and individual voting behavior. Results from a survey experiment conducted during Sweden's 2018 general election suggest that the coalition expectation mechanism can indeed be at work. By showing how parties' pre-electoral coalition behavior enter a voter's decision calculus, the paper provides important insights for the literature on strategic voting theories in proportional systems.     

Small winners and big losers: strategic party behaviour in the 2017 Dutch general election

Abstract

This article analyses party strategies during the campaign for the Dutch general election of March 2017, making use of issue-yield theory. It investigates whether parties strategically emphasise high-yield issues, by juxtaposing the issue opportunities provided by voters with parties’ issue emphasis during the campaign. More specifically, it asks whether parties strategically emphasised issues that were expected to reward them electorally. Analysing voter preferences and party campaign data, it is found that parties and most of their constituencies show high ideological consistency, that parties emphasise mostly positional issues and thus choose a conflict-mobilising strategy, and that most parties emphasise high-yield issues rather than following the general political agenda. Four small parties that won significantly behaved strategically while the social democrats – who severely lost – hardly did. The findings imply that the issue-yield framework can help to explain the election result in the fragmented Dutch multi-party context.     

‘Get Brexit Done’: The New Political Divides of England and Wales at the 2019 Election

This article analyses the successful Conservative election campaign of 2019 and how it took advantage of a fractured political and economic landscape. It reviews the unique circumstances around the 2019 election and the ‘surprising death’ of a no-deal Brexit. We then analyse the divergent political communication strategies in the 2017 and 2019 Conservative campaigns showing how the latter was much more coherent and politically unorthodox. Drawing on socioeconomic, demographic and British Election Study data, we argue that Boris Johnson’s messaging was carefully tailored towards the demands of voters in the ‘red wall’ seats. Conservative success was built around an appeal to voters in these economically depressed ‘geographies of discontent’. But while tremendously successful, the coalition this created is potentially fragile. An unconventional, ‘leftish’ Conservative campaign built a new, diverse bloc of voters. It includes a number of left-wingers expecting change alongside traditional Conservative supporters, and will be hard to keep together given the economic turbulence ahead.     

牢记“四点希望”开创高校工会工作新局面——学习贯彻胡锦涛总书记在北京大学建校110周年座谈会上的讲话精神

胡锦涛总书记在北京大学建校110周年座谈会上的讲话中强调,教师乃至全体教职工在高校的高素质人才队伍建设中具有举足轻重的作用.高校工会组织要努力做好服务教职工的各项工作,就要紧扣总书记提出的"四点希望"的内涵实质,切实发挥高校工会的组织教职工、引导教职工、服务教职工、维护教职工的作用,努力开创工会工作的新局面.     

族群战争的爆发：一个广义理论

基于两个分析性的创新：对社会事实秉持以机制为基础的理解路径和对动态交互影响的强调,作者提出了一个有关族群战争爆发的广义理论,并利用两种元机制——安全困境/螺旋模型和群体间–群体内互动——作为“元综合器”,将战争的影响因素与冲突行为的直接驱动力联系起来,对散布在现有文献中的众多因素和机制加以综合,形成了一个更具整合性且动态的族群战争理论。该理论不但整合了既有文献中已经识别的众多因素和机制,而且揭示了先前被隐藏或被忽视的因素、互动和机制,由此指明未来在这些方向的探究将是硕果累累。     

Competition and switching in public service markets: Can they reduce inequalities?

Regulatory reforms to public infrastructure services across European Union (EU) countries were aimed at increasing consumer welfare by introducing competition and choice into service markets. However, empirical evaluations have questioned whether these reforms have benefitted all consumers, suggesting that vulnerable groups of service users (especially those with lower levels of formal education), might be locked into poorly performing services. We assess the relationship between the level of competition in electricity and fixed telephony markets in EU countries and evaluate the affordability of these services for different socio‐educational layers. Our findings show that – although in countries where there is a relatively high frequency of switching, inequalities between socio‐educational groups are smaller and eventually disappear – competition as such does not play a part. These results suggest that demand‐side regulation that successfully enables consumer switching has the potential to equalize social welfare, thereby reflecting a possible convergence of regulatory instruments and the central aims of the welfare state in this context.     

幼儿面部表情识别能力培养的实验研究

为了考察幼儿情绪识别能力培养的效果,我们对50名儿童进行情绪识别培养,结果发现:幼儿情绪识别能力培养效果明显;不同年龄段培养的效果差异显著,3岁效果最明显,3岁也是正性情绪培养的关键期;正性情绪识别能力培养存在性比差异,女生比男生快;幼儿负性情绪识别能力培养3、4岁都有质的改变。结果提示:幼儿情绪识别能力发展迅速,培养效果明显。不同类型情绪培养效果有分离,正性、负性培养作用明显。     

合同一般法定解除条件探微

违反从给付义务必须达到相对人的合同目的因此而落空的程度才允许解除合同。不可抗力致使不能实现合同目的作为合同解除的条件,尚无废除的必要。不能实现合同目的可被解释为严重影响订立合同所期望的经济利益。在金钱给付作为合同标的场合,付款迟延情况下的解除合同必须从严把握。     

高职院校发展通识教育的创新理念

"通识教育"是我国高等教育改革中的创新理念。本文通过辨析"通识教育"与"文化素质教育"的关系阐述了"通识教育"理念的内涵;同时结合高职教育特点,讨论高职院校发展通识教育的时代意义;建议高职院校从完善通识教育课程体系,提高教师素质,发挥学生主体性和营造校园人文环境等方面实践通识教育。     

科学理解与主体间性

科学理解问题现已成为科学哲学研究中的热点问题,其探讨目的是要从理解的角度求取科学知识之普适性来源,以从科学的角度来弥合人与自然、人与人之间的裂痕。科学知识之普遍性来源于科学共同体的共通性,而后者又基于科学家之间的主体间性。主体间性的引入既为科学理解同样亦为科学理论本身的发展提供了新的方法论。