State of the world 2018: democracy facing global challenges*

This article analyses the state of democracy in the world in 2018, and recent developments building on the 2019 release of the V-Dem dataset. First, the trend of autocratization continues and 24 countries are now affected by what is established as a “third wave of autocratization”. Second, despite the global challenge of gradual autocratization, democratic regimes prevail in a majority of countries in the world (99 countries, 55%) in 2018. Thus, the state of the world is unmistakably more democratic compared to any point during the last century. At the same time, the number of electoral authoritarian regimes had increased to 55, or 31% of all countries. Third, the autocratization wave is disproportionally affecting democratic countries in Europe and the Americas, but also India’s large population. Fourth, freedom of expression and the media, and the rule of law are the areas under attack in most countries undergoing autocratization, but toxic polarization of the public sphere is a threat to democracy spreading across regimes. Finally, we present the first model to predict autocratization (“adverse regime transitions”) pointing to the top-10 most at-risk countries in the world.     

新自由主义与国际经济法

全球性经济危机的危险性使人们对新自由主义产生了质疑,某些现行国际经济法制度的缺陷也日渐显露。WTO体制内各国保护主义可能抬头,国际金融体系的破绽使得加强监管和完善体制成为当务之急,从而弱化了自由主义色彩。国际经济法律秩序面临重组,这给各国提出了新的课题。但是在全球性经济衰退到来之际,新自由主义所体现的国际经济自由和开放仍然十分重要,其制度性的缺陷可以通过在危机之际建立国际经济合作机制得以修正。由于中国对外开放是在新自由主义的国际大环境下进行的,所以金融危机对新自由主义的冲击,对于中国也是一场严峻的挑战。但是,以中国的经济规模和成就,中国在国际经济法律制度和秩序的重组中也获得参与国际经济规则创制的难得机遇。     

全球治理与国际竞争法的网络模式

由于新自由主义理论的勃兴和市场机制的内在张力,国际社会步入了国际化市场经济阶段。国际化市场经济要求国际社会建立国际竞争机制解决国际市场失灵。在"洛克式"的国际体系下,借助全球治理理论建立一个多层次的国际竞争治理网络模式是国际社会现实的选择。多层次的国际竞争治理网络模式可以借鉴经济学的联邦财政理论和体制竞争理论确定各个层次的管辖权划分。     

It's economic size,stupid! How global advocacy mirrors state power

Numerous empirical studies suggest that global interest communities are heavily biased in favor of wealthier countries. This research note critically reviews these works suggesting that they (i) lack a benchmark to assess the biased nature of global interest communities and (ii) conflate the concepts of “wealth” (based on GDP per capita) and “economic power” (based on GDP) into one analytical category. As a corrective to these problems, we compare variation in global interest group mobilization across countries to the size of these countries' national economies. Relying on an original dataset mapping interest groups communities at the World Trade Organization (1997–2012) and the United Nations Climate Summits (1997–2011), we show that (i) global interest representation almost perfectly reflects differences in countries' relative economic power and (ii) contrary to the conventional wisdom, wealthier countries are, relative to their economic size, actually underrepresented in global interest communities.     

Power transitions and global trade governance: The impact of a rising China on the export credit regime

The existing liberal international economic order was constructed during the era of American hegemony and has been heavily shaped by US power. How is the rise of China affecting global economic governance? This article analyzes the case of export credit, which has long been considered a highly effective international regulatory regime and an important component of global trade governance. I show that the rise of China is profoundly altering the landscape of export credit and undermining its governance arrangements. State-backed export credit is a key tool of China's development strategy, yet I argue that an explosion in China's use of export credit is eroding the efficacy of existing international rules intended to prevent a competitive spiral of state subsidization via export credit. The case of export credit highlights a fundamental tension between liberal institutions of global governance and the development objectives of emerging powers.     

邓小平国际战略思想及其时代意义

邓小平在我国改革开放和现代化建设的新时期 ,提出了一整套适应现代化建设需要的、具有鲜明时代特征的国际战略思想。本文论述了邓小平国际战略的若干重要思想及其时代意义。     

Limits to non‐state market regulation: A qualitative comparative analysis of the international sport footwear industry and the Fair Labor Association

Non‐state market regulation has become a central focus and continues to receive scholarly attention. The present paper provides an assessment of the conditions under which multinational firms join a multi‐stakeholder certification initiative. The cases of the Fair labor Association and 17 international sport footwear companies have been selected for this purpose. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of the 17 cases is performed. The paper argues that the combination of sustained NGO pressure and public ownership of a firm is a necessary precondition for firms joining a multi‐stakeholder certification initiative. The theoretical and policy implications of this result are discussed.     

全球和合共生系统理论与中国周边命运共同体

全球和合共生系统理论是共生理论与系统理论相互融合而形成的全新框架体系,可以作为构建人类命运共同体和中国周边命运共同体的理论分析范式和理论依据。全球和合共生系统理论认为,世界上的一切事物都是一个大系统中的共生体,必须从全球的角度来构建命运共同体。国际体系各组成部分之间的关系是辩证的,即对立的统一。全球体系内部与中国周边体系内部的互相依赖既有积极的一面,又有消极的一面。积极的相互依存是指相互依存的双方都从关系中受益,而消极的相互依存是指任何一方对相互依存关系的破坏都可能给另一方甚至双方带来损失。构建中国周边命运共同体是全球共生体系高级阶段的目标。全球和合共生系统理论的相互依存论决定了优化中国周边体系以实现中国周边命运共同体的必要性。以相互尊重为前提,以公平正义为核心,以合作共赢为目标,应成为构建中国周边命运共同体的三个关键要素。我们应以此来推进构建新型国际关系,进而建立中国周边命运共同体。     

从全球风险社会到人类安全共同体：理论进阶分析

全球性风险和安全问题是当前人类面临的重大挑战。全球风险社会理论通过对现代性的反思与批判,阐述了现代社会的风险特征,以及在现代风险挑战下传统制度的解构和风险治理机制的瓦解,并探寻由自反性现代化向世界主义迈进的路径,以应对这些风险和挑战。文章剖析了现代风险社会理论的要点,提出了该理论应对全球风险存在的局限性,认为我国提出的总体国家安全观当中有关人类安全共同体的论述,坚持马克思主义阶级分析方法,倡导以人类整体利益为导向,以发展为基础,以共商共建为原则、互利共赢为目标,实现了对现代风险社会理论的超越,为人类社会迈向人类命运共同体提供了一条切实可行的路径。