THE INTERACTION OF ANTISOCIAL PROPENSITY AND LIFE‐COURSE VARYING PREDICTORS OF DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR: DIFFERENCES BY METHOD OF ESTIMATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THEORY*

Recent criminological research has explored the extent to which stable propensity and life‐course perspectives may be integrated to provide a more comprehensive explanation of variation in individual criminal offending. One line of these integrative efforts focuses on the ways that stable individual characteristics may interact with, or modify, the effects of life‐course varying social factors. Given their consistency with the long‐standing view that person–environment interactions contribute to variation in human social behavior, these theoretical integration attempts have great intuitive appeal. However, a review of past criminological research suggests that conceptual and empirical complexities have, so far, somewhat dampened the development of a coherent theoretical understanding of the nature of interaction effects between stable individual antisocial propensity and time‐varying social variables. In this study, we outline and empirically assess several of the sometimes conflicting hypotheses regarding the ways that antisocial propensity moderates the influence of time‐varying social factors on delinquent offending. Unlike some prior studies, however, we explicitly measure the interactive effects of stable antisocial propensity and time‐varying measures of selected social variables on changes in delinquent offending. In addition, drawing on recent research that suggests that the relative ubiquity of interaction effects in past studies may be partly from the poorly suited application of linear statistical models to delinquency data, we alternatively test our interaction hypotheses using least‐squares and tobit estimation frameworks. Our findings suggest that method of estimation matters, with interaction effects appearing readily in the former but not in the latter. The implications of these findings for future conceptual and empirical work on stable propensity/time‐varying social variable interaction effects are discussed.     

东北振兴过程中的对外开放:中俄合作

《东北地区振兴规划》提出了通过扩大对外开放,加速东北老工业基地振兴。俄罗斯是东北对外开放主要对象国。在东北振兴规划框架下,中俄区域经济合作应该是互动发展、共生发展、和谐发展。充分发挥本区域的经济优势,引进国外的资金和先进技术,提高生产效率,调整产业结构,达到生产要素的国际最佳配置,实现老工业基地的再次辉煌。《规划》初次提出了在理论上要突破以国家为单位的国际区域一体化,而在相邻的两个国家部分地区实行一体化。实践上中俄区域双方的经济合作要达到互动、共生、和谐的发展状态。为此,建议在中俄区域合作中,要把东北作为一个经济体的概念,以区域化打破原有的行政区划。     

论“因侵权而犯罪”与“因犯罪而侵权”

刑事侵权具备"刑事责任"、"侵权责任"双重责任属性,由于刑、民责任在发展进程、互动的路径及效果上的不同,可分化为"因侵权而犯罪"与"因犯罪而侵权",即刑事侵权二分论。"因侵权而犯罪"具有民事责任倾向性,"因犯罪而侵权"具有刑事责任倾向性,解决刑事侵权责任问题须兼顾侵权责任法与刑事法的正义要求。刑民二分论有坚实的法律基础,符合法律价值基础的要求,当刑事责任与侵权责任进行内容接轨与功能互补时,可在实践中实现预期的价值目标和社会效益的最大化。     

促进民族文化与地域经济发展的良性互动——黎族传统文化在海南国际旅游岛建设中的物化

发展民族文化旅游,不仅能够促进民族文化与地域经济的良性互动,也是对民族村寨的一种有效的保护方式。作为旅游景点对外开放的历史文化村寨,能否把旅游业的发展与保护生态环境和自然环境相统一,充分考虑资源、环境的承载能力,做到保护和开发并重,避免无序开发导致的生态环境遭到破坏,民族文化失去特色,值得我们认真思考。本文以海南为例进行分析并提出相关建议。     

Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

贵州生态文明建设与精准扶贫互动对策探析

贵州是生态文明建设示范区和扶贫攻坚的主战场,两者的良性互动是贵州实现同步小康的重要保障。在新时期,贵州生态文明建设与精准扶贫互动具有必然性。在践行生态文明建设和精准扶贫的过程中,贵州呈现出了不少两者良性互动的闪光点,但依然存在一些问题,如认识上存在误区、政策法制建设薄弱、体制机制制约等,应加强宣传教育、完善政策法规、健全体制机制,以生态文明理念推动精准扶贫。     

被害人与犯罪人的互动关系及其在刑事责任视野下的意义

犯罪与被害是对立统一的一对矛盾,被害人与犯罪人并非是独立存在的,二者之间有着复杂的互动关系。由此被害人也可以划分出不同的种类。这种互动关系虽没有刑法的明文规定,但不可否认,其在客观上仍然对刑事责任施加着重要影响。     

论公共安全危机事件中公安机关与媒体的良性互动关系

我国当前正处于经济转轨和社会转型的关键时期,因人为的、社会的或管理的等因素引发各种社会矛盾和社会问题接连不断,由此导致公共安全危机事件日益凸显。由于民主政治建设的需要,保障和实现公众知情权,特别是公共安全危机事件的特点和媒体的特性,决定了媒体必然介入公安机关应对公共安全危机事件中。公安机关为及时有效地应对、管理、处置公共安全危机事件,提高公安机关驾驭社会治安能力和水平,履行好公安机关的任务和职责,必须与媒体建立良性互动关系。     

论科学发展与社会和谐的良性互动

科学发展与社会和谐不仅在理论上是内在统一、不可分割的,而且在实践中也是相互促进、相辅相成的。党的十七大报告将科学发展和社会和谐在中国特色社会主义的伟大旗帜下有机地结合在一起,这就说明,发展中国特色社会主义,必须以推动科学发展促进社会和谐,也必须以促进社会和谐推动科学发展。着力实现科学发展与社会和谐的良性互动,必将使两者在进一步相辅相成、相互促进的过程中,共同推动中国特色社会主义建设。     

信息互动视角下“情感过滤”成因探析与对策研究

语言是一个负载信息的符号系统,交际是一个信息在交际者之间双向或多向的互动过程,信息的共享是交际活动的目的,信息的互动是交际活动的本质,语言的运用是交际的主要形式。“情感过滤”是一个人情感因素对语言习得和信息输入、输出产生的影响。学习动机、语言焦虑、语言态度、自我意象、自信心和移情等是造成“情感过滤”的主要因素,关注交际意义而非形式、关注交际情境、实现可理解性信息输入是降低“情感过滤”的有效策略。