Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

The extraterritorial dimensions of biofuel policies and the politics of scale: live and let die?

Despite criticism, global biofuel production continues to rise, using primarily food crops. Between 2001 and 2012 it increased nearly six-fold, driven primarily by domestic policies, yet raising strong international concerns, eg over impacts on global food prices. Nevertheless, little international biofuel governance has emerged. This article examines the various extraterritorial dimensions of domestic biofuel policies and investigates why international biofuel governance has remained vague, despite its controversial nature. It uses the politics of scale to analyse why countries may wish to frame it as a global or domestic issue. Three extraterritorial dimensions are identified: global environmental impacts, global socioeconomic impacts, and attempts at extraterritorial control over biofuel production abroad. While major producers have successfully avoided liability for impacts by preventing the scaling up of much biofuel governance to the international level, major importers have tried to fill perceived governance gaps using policies aimed at extraterritorial control. We show that both the rise of nationally oriented development policies with extraterritorial impacts and of unilateral sustainability rule making primarily affect weaker countries, making global inequalities more pronounced. It is essential that adaptation governance take into account both environmental and global socioeconomic changes, such as higher agricultural commodity prices.     

The history of devolution of powers to local authorities in South Africa: The shifting sands of state control

Urban waste services in Portugal have historically been provided together with other services, such as the water services. Despite the lack of discussion on this subject in the literature, some questions have been raised about the gains, in terms of efficiency, of this policy. Following a recent and robust partial nonparametric frontier model, based on order-α, we intend to evaluate the presence of economies of scope in the Portuguese waste sector. Furthermore, we also estimate the economies of scale using the traditional data envelopment analysis. The results show the absence of economies of scope between waste and water (and wastewater) services. In addition, we identify the presence of economies of scale in smaller municipalities. These outcomes might be useful for policy and decision makers in further reforms.     

论我国农业经济中的组织创新

增加农民收入是我国现实经济中的重大主题,农业中的组织创新对这一主题具有极为重要的实践价值和理论意义。在世界农业发展史中,农业的组织创新是渐进式的,其演化样式则是从联合到合作,从“非产权维系的交易联合”到“基于交易的产权结合”。农业中的合作经济组织的基本功能是实现第二层含义的规模经济。合作经济组织保留了农户对土地的占有权,单个农户的土地规模没有发生变化,但重要的是,通过联合与合作,统一面向市场、统一对外经营的生产同类型产品的土地规模得以扩大,因此,农业的生产成本减少和交易费用降低是自然的结果。     

The Economic Evaluation of Policing Activity: An Application of a Hybrid Methodology

This paper advances a hybrid police cost function that synthesises the proactive/preventive and response/reactive methodologies from the criminology literature. The model presents a coherent estimation process that can help in the allocation of scarce resources to police forces and also enable economists, government organisations and criminologists to assess the scale and technical efficiency of forces. This hybrid model uses response survey data for a sample of English and Welsh police forces in which relative efficiency rankings are contrasted with relative performance measures produced by the Audit Commission. We find that there are considerable divergences in police force's scale and technical efficiency during 1997/98 and 1998/99 utilising non-parametric techniques.     

试论我国小型企业财务报告体系的导向问题

我国小型企业会计制度一直未受到足够的重视。我国小型企业具有规模小、主要靠自有资金发展和会计报告主要用于定期纳税等特点。建立接近收付实现制特点的税务导向的财务报告体系 ,是我国小型企业会计制度的理性选择     

Population size or population density? An empirical examination of scale economies in South Australian local government, 2015/16

ABSTRACT

Advocates of amalgamation typically claim that substantial scale economies flow from municipal mergers, which generate larger local government entities by population size. We examined whether economies of scale exist in council outlays by analysing the expenditure of 68 South Australian local government areas using data from the 2015/16 financial year. However, given the correlation between population size and population density it is important to determine whether the influence of population size on expenditure is due to variations in population density. We find that when local government areas are stratified into subgroups on the basis of population density, the evidence of economies of scale largely evaporates. From a policy perspective, this suggests that in place of municipal mergers, policymakers should instead explore avenues for shared service arrangements in those functions which exhibit scale economies.     

我国外汇储备的规模与风险规避

本文通过分析国家外汇管理局年报中外汇管理形势以及我国外汇储备的规模,指出了在当前全球经济金融形势下我国巨额外汇储备面临的风险,提出应从改善我国内部经济发展模式着手,通过人民币国际化等途径进行风险规避的建议。     

通过艺术教育培养当代大学生正确的审美观

通过艺术教育,提高当今大学生的审美素质和审美能力,使当代大学生摆脱庸俗、狭隘的观念,使之具有高尚情操。同时,提高学生的判断力,把握美丑的尺度和价值高低,培养正确的审美观,使自身素质全面发展。