政治决策的成本和风险分析

政治决策冲突是萨托利冲突理论的重要组成部分。对这个问题的研究填补了冲突政治学理论体系的空白,开辟了一个崭新的研究视角。萨托利认为研究政治决策冲突问题必然要涉及外部政治风险、决策成本、决策体制、多数原则、选择强度、政治透明度等问题,而这些因素同时也都是政治冲突理论的基本问题,搞清楚这些冲突与这些因素之间的互动关系,对于深化对政治冲突理论的理解具有重要价值。不仅对萨托利的相关研究成果进行了全面总结,更主要的是通过对这一理论的深入和系统的分析使其更趋完善,使其明确化、理论化、体系化。     

Data hubris? Humanitarian information systems and the mirage of technology

This article looks at the promise of technology to revolutionise humanitarian action, especially in terms of the gathering and use of data. With many heralding a ‘data revolution’, the opportunities and enthusiasm for using social media and SMS data in crisis response are on the rise. The article constructs an analytical framework in order to scrutinise the three main claims made on behalf of technologically advanced humanitarian information systems: that they can access data more accurately, more quickly, and alter power relations in emancipatory ways. It does so in relation to two aspects of digital humanitarianism: visual technology and crisis mapping, and big data. The article is partly informed by a historical perspective, but also by interview and other material that suggests some of the claims made on behalf of technology are exaggerated. In particular, we argue that the enthusiasm for the data is vastly outstripped by the capacity to meaningfully analyse it. We conclude by scoping the implications of the future technological evolution of humanitarianism, in particular by examining how technology contributes to what Duffield terms ‘post-modern humanitarianism’.     

利益冲突的法律控制

转型时期的中国正面临更加复杂和多样的社会问题,核心问题是控制日益表面化的利益冲突。法律对利益冲突的控制应从立法和司法两个方面入手:一是用立法建立起服务于最大多数人最大利益的利益整合制度,分配利益,保障利益和协商利益,在宏观上防范利益冲突的发生;二是用司法建立合法利益的救济机制,抑制非法利益,平衡合法利益,包容法外利益,在微观上解决具体的利益冲突。     

Can We Talk? What We Have Learned About How to Have Productive Conflicts About Family Policy and Family Law

How we handle professional conflicts affects our capacity to help others in conflict. Two AFCC dialogues, one about domestic violence, the other about shared parenting, illustrate the challenges of taking on professional differences. The former resulted in considerable consensus. The latter involved a frank exchange of differences but little overall consensus. It was, however, an important beginning of a critical conversation. Other issues calling out for constructive conflict engagement, include the crisis in providing access to justice for family litigants who cannot afford legal representation. Professional groups must move beyond defending their own self interests to addressing this crisis.     

SIDESTEPPING A QUAGMIRE: RUSSIA,SYRIA, AND THE LESSONS OF THE SOVIET-AFGHAN WAR

Russia's military intervention in Syria (2015-present) has ensured the Assad regime's survival to date. Why though has Russia succeeded in achieving its objective? This article provides an analysis of Russia's involvement in the Syrian civil war in comparison to the Soviet Union's military debacle in Afghanistan (1979-89). Accordingly, by avoiding the USSR's mistakes in Afghanistan, this article posits that Russia has not become entangled in a protracted conflict in Syria. In Syria, Russia has militarily intervened to buttress the Assad regime, not to reorganize the host government's leadership and assume control over the war effort. Meanwhile, Syrian opposition forces lack concerted international support and Russia has allies that are assisting the embattled Syrian government. Lastly, Russia intends to ‘freeze’ the Syrian civil war in place by (i) pressuring opposition forces to submit and other countries to re-embrace Damascus in a diplomatic forum, (ii) endorsing Syria's claim to sovereignty, and (iii) relying upon a small military presence to deter others from destabilizing Assad's rule.     

The Effect of Question Order on Disclosure of Intimate Partner Violence: An Experimental Test Using the Conflict Tactics Scales

Two plausible but contradictory approaches to question order in research on sensitive or criminal behavior are (1) that presenting the questions in a sequence corresponding to a culturally recognized behavior pattern will facilitate disclosure, and (2) that presenting questions in random order will result in more disclosure because random order disrupts response sets. The question order of the original Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS1) used the culturally recognized sequence approach, and the revised CTS (CTS2) used a modified random order. This experiment was designed to determine which of these two question orders results in more disclosure of physical and sexual assault of a dating partner. The standard version of the CTS2, which has the questions from each of the 5 scales interspersed in a slightly modified random order, was administered to every second student in a sample of 417 university students. The other half of the sample were given the same instrument but with the questions in the culturally recognized sequential order used in the CTS1. The cultural sequence order begins with the socially approved behaviors in the Negotiation scale and ends with scales measuring antisocial and the criminal behavior such as the Physical Assault scale. The results indicate that the CTS2 random order produced significantly higher disclosure rates for the scales that measure criminal behavior (Physical Assault, Injury, and Sexual Coercion) and made no difference for the other CTS2 scales (Negotiation and Psychological Aggression). Although these results suggest that the CTS2 random order is the preferred approach, reasons to treat that conclusion with caution are presented.     

Examining the Effects of Race/Ethnicity and Race Relations on Public Opinion about the Overrepresentation of Black People in U.S. Prisons

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to determine whether persons of different racial/ethnic backgrounds differ in their perceptions of the role racial discrimination plays in the overrepresentation of Black people in the U.S. prison system. The paper also tested the gradient hypothesis of comparative conflict theory, which predicts Black people perceive the greatest amount of racial discrimination, followed by Latinx and white people, respectively. This study also tested whether perceptions of race relations between Black, Latinx, and white people influenced the role participants thought racial discrimination played in Black people’s overrepresentation. Nationally representative Gallup Poll data were used. Results partially supported the gradient hypothesis. Black people were more likely than Latinx and white people to perceive racial discrimination to explain Black people’s overrepresentation in prison, but Latinxs’ views did not differ from whites’. Participants who perceived poorer relations between Black, Latinx, and white people were more likely to consider racial discrimination to explain Black people’s overrepresentation. Findings suggest Black people and those who perceive poorer race relations are most likely to support criminal justice reform efforts aimed at reducing racial disparities in the criminal justice system.     

Gender equality needs critical consideration in conflict-affected settings

The World Bank's 2012 World Development Report calls for gender equality on a global level but falls short on its analysis of conflict-affected contexts. It is critical that we understand the needs of vulnerable populations in these settings. This viewpoint draws on findings from research in health reform in conflict-affected contexts to highlight some opportunities and challenges for addressing gender equality in these settings, using the policy priorities outlined in the World Bank report. Drawing on this analysis we argue that more attention and action should be focused on addressing gender inequalities and inequities in neglected conflict-affected states.     

论民事赔偿优先原则

确立民事赔偿优先原则 ,具有法律依据和理论依据 ,该原则有其具体的适用范围。要纠正认识上的偏差和实践中有欠公允的作法 ,正确适用该原则 ,能为实现对侵权行为受害人的救济探索一种途径。     

冲突法之悖论:价值取向与技术系统的张力

在各国冲突法中,普遍存在着两大悖论:从其体现的正义度高低来看,多边主义优于单边主义;而在多边主义中,“实质正义”又优位于“冲突正义”。然而,在实践中,多边主义远未将单边主义逐出冲突法领域;“实质正义”也未取代“冲突正义”成为冲突法的主导价值取向。这两大悖论形成的原因,均可从冲突法之价值取向和技术系统的张力中得到解释。显然,对这两大悖论的处理,关乎我国冲突法之基本立法政策如何确定的问题。就此,虽无整体上的最佳消解办法,但依法律由价值取向和技术系统构成之法理分析,仍可找到次优的安排。