Designing the United Nations Environment Programme: a story of compromise and confrontation

The role of the United Nations in global environmental governance was determined in 1972 when a new international body for the global environment was created as a programme within the United Nations rather than as an autonomous specialized agency. A set of political dynamics between developed and developing countries led to the decisions on the functions, form, financing, and location of the new intergovernmental organization—the United Nations Environment Programme. This article traces the historical roots of these choices and exposes the motivations behind them.

Using group-based trajectory modeling in conjunction with propensity scores to improve balance

This paper builds upon two prior papers by Haviland and Nagin (Psychometrika 70:1–22, 2005) and Haviland, Nagin, and Rosenbaum (Working paper, 2006) that attempt to bring the key attributes of an experiment to the analysis of non-experimental longitudinal data. Using a case study of the facilitation effect of gang membership on violence, it systematically examines the contribution of group-based trajectory modeling to the achievement of covariate balance in observational data. In this case study, inclusion of the posterior probabilities of group membership (PPGM), from a model on the pre-treatment measures of the outcome variable, created closer balance on these key covariates than did analyses that did not include them. Still closer balance was obtained on these key covariates by stratifying the analysis by trajectory group. This stratification was achieved by fitting separate propensity score models and matching gang joiners to gang abstainers within trajectory group. In addition, we demonstrated that further balance could be obtained on additional covariates by including PPGM from a model on pre-treatment longitudinal data of these covariates. While this case study is only one empirical example, we believe that it provides useful empirical evidence on the value of performing within trajectory group causal inference in observational longitudinal data and on the use of the PPGM in achieving balance in propensity score-based causal inference.

论再生产与环境保护法制建设

面临全球严重的环境问题,传统再生产理论中四个环节已出现局限性。新的再生产理论发展为以生态设计为起点,经过生产、分配、交换、消费,到最后循环处理,符合热力学定律和生态规律,促进经济发展与环境保护双赢。环保法制建设要在再生产全过程中落实。     

现代城市夜景规划设计初探

我国设计师从80年代初开始对城市夜景进行研究,但研究的侧重点局限子景观照明领域。本文根据近几年来城市夜景景观建设过程中产生的问题,从对城市夜景观与夜景规划设计的认识出发,力图把城市设计理论与实际相结合。在城市夜景景观规划设计领域提出初步的理论构想。     

预防犯罪--城市空间设计的新理念--论城市空间设计与犯罪学理论的不断融合

随着城市化进程的加速,城市空间设计与犯罪现象之间的联系日益紧密,这引起了各国犯罪学家的普遍关注。美国芝加哥学派的“同心圆理论”,从城市空间设计角度探讨犯罪原因做出的初步尝试。此后,为寻求犯罪预防,奥斯卡·纽曼提出“可防御空间”,成功地将城市空间设计与犯罪学理论融合在一起。在前人研究的基础上,结合中国城市化的现状,本文从城市空间设计的角度提出建立“层进式城市空间防范模式”,以更好地达到预防犯罪的效果。     

Identification of some factors influencing soil transfer on shoes

In criminal activities, soil can be transferred from a crime scene to items linked with a perpetrator; for example, shoes, cars or tools. Several parameters will influence the quantity of soil transferred in a given scenario. The knowledge of the most influential factors can help the expert to assess the evidence using a logical approach at the activity level or to predict the amount of soil that can be expected in a given scenario. The influence of five chosen parameters, namely the shoe profile, shoe size, walker's weight, soil type and soil humidity were assessed using Design of Experiment (DOE) in order to understand their influence on soil quantity transferred on shoes.The Faced Central Composite Design (FCCD) using a quadratic model was found to be highly significant, thus they could be adequately used to model and to interpret the amount of soil recovered from one shoe.These designs demonstrate that the characteristics of the donor (soil type and soil humidity), as well as a combination of these two factors have a very significant impact on the soil transfer. The characteristics of the receptor (shoe profile, shoe size and walker's weight) also have an impact on the transfer but to a lesser extent.Globally, this research provides valuable information for the forensic scientist both in investigative mode: evaluation of the soil quantity possibly transferred on shoes, and in the evaluative steps: is the quantity of soil found on the suspect shoes in accordance to the proposition/scenario given by the prosecution and the defence?     

正交试验优选复方青风藤巴布剂的提取工艺

目的 优选复方青风藤巴布剂的最佳提取工艺。方法 以青藤碱、桂皮醛的含量和干膏得率为评价指标,采用正交设计法考察乙醇浓度、乙醇用量、提取时间和提取次数对提取结果的影响,确定最佳提取工艺。结果 最佳提取工艺参数为加6倍量的90%乙醇,提取3次,每次1.5 h。结论 优选的提取工艺稳定、可行。     

尊重个人利益是衡量制度设计是否科学的关键

曼德维尔在<蜜蜂的寓言>中提出了"私人恶德即公共利益"的思想,他通过寓言得出结论:国家的繁荣和人民的普遍幸福,只有顺应人的利己本性才能得到实现.因此,在进行制度设计时必须充分认识和评价个人利益的积极作用.就公私两种行为而言,制度是针对人的利己主义行为的,尊重个人利益是衡量制度设计是否科学的关键.制度的主要功能是调动人的积极性,而要做到这些就必须解决"个人利益"与"公共利益"之间的关系,即如何能够使人人像关心个人利益一样关心公共利益,这就是私利公益问题.制度设计的目标是实现私利公益,而只有建立在尊重个人利益基础上的制度设计才能实现社会公益的目标.     

正交试验法优选复方白芍颗粒提取工艺

目的 优选复方白芍颗粒的最佳提取工艺。方法 以干膏得率和白芍活性成分芍药苷的提取率为评价指标，采用正交设计法考察溶剂用量、提取时间以及提取次数对提取结果的影响，确定最佳提取工艺。结果 最佳提取工艺参数为：加10倍量水，提取2次，每次提取1 h。结论 优选的提取工艺切实可行，为复方白芍颗粒制剂的研究奠定基础。     

A second chance elsewhere. Estimating the effect of winning (vs. being the runner-up) on future electoral prospects

The effect of being the winner (vs. being the runner-up) on winning subsequent elections has been estimated across a series of countries using regression discontinuity design. We contribute to this literature by incorporating politicians who move across constituencies. The US and the UK are our case studies. UK–US differences are not apparent when comparing estimates of the individual incumbency advantage, i.e., winning the same office in the same constituency. UK–US differences in the career advantage of winning office are almost entirely driven by the ability of the UK’s close-race runners-up to win elsewhere subsequently. Runners-up are more likely to move to safer seats. Marginal winners become locked-in to their seat. In the US, we observe negligible movement across constituencies.