Probabilistic expert systems for handling artifacts in complex DNA mixtures

This paper presents a coherent probabilistic framework for taking account of allelic dropout, stutter bands and silent alleles when interpreting STR DNA profiles from a mixture sample using peak size information arising from a PCR analysis. This information can be exploited for evaluating the evidential strength for a hypothesis that DNA from a particular person is present in the mixture. It extends an earlier Bayesian network approach that ignored such artifacts. We illustrate the use of the extended network on a published casework example.     

农村基层组织人员职务犯罪与社会管理创新

农村基层组织职务犯罪的上升趋势,反映出农村基层社会管理出现了一些问题。基层干部人员素质较低,监管力度不够,财务管理混乱等主客观因素是犯罪率上升的直接原因。因此。必须加大社会管理创新力度,认真贯彻落实修订后的《中华人民共和国村民委员会组织法》和中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅《关于在农村普遍实行村务公开和民主管理制度的通知》,形成全方位预防“村官”职务犯罪的监督体系。     

毕节试验区劳务经济研究

毕节试验区成立以来,中央统战部暨各民主党派团结合作共谋发展,以探索科学发展理念路径和实践为使命,把单纯为解决人口压力和吃饭问题的劳务输出转变为发展参与要素收益分配的劳务经济,取得了显著成效.通过对毕节试验区发展劳务经济的实践经验进行理论梳理和总结,为进一步发展劳务经济、推进城镇化建设、不断探索"毕节模式"推动试验区新一...     

山区水库移民女性生活发展状况研究——以X省Y县Z村水库移民为例

在女性群体中有一个特殊的人群--农村水库移民女性.从对移民家庭发展历程中经历的搬迁、建房和土地利用这三个生活场景变迁的描述中可以看出,作为妻子和母亲双重角色的移民女性群体的社会适应过程,及其对抗危机策略中所表现的灵活实用和开放发展的特质.     

农村环境污染救济的困难与对策研究

我国农村环境污染日趋严重,对农民的生命健康权和财产权造成了较严重损害,但农民对环境污染的救济却存在多重困难,应从价值层面强化维护农民生存权的法治理念,并从制度层面强化政府的环保职责和提高农民的救济能力。     

Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in canines by peri-apical X-rays

Estimation of age in individuals has received considerable attention in forensic science, in which it is a widely used method for individual identification, together with paleo-demographic analyses to establish mortality patterns in past populations. The present investigation, which is a continuation of a previously published pilot study, was conducted to examine the possible application of the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical images as an indicator of age at death. A total of 200 peri-apical X-rays of upper and lower canines were assembled from 57 male and 43 female skeletons of Caucasian origin, aged between 20 and 79 years. They belong to the Frassetto osteological collection of Sassari (Sardinia) and are housed in the Museum of Anthropology, Department of Experimental and Evolutionistic Biology, University of Bologna. For each skeleton, dental maturity was evaluated by measuring the pulp/tooth area ratio on upper (x(1)) and lower (x(2)) canines. Very good agreement was found between intraobserver measurements. Statistical analysis was performed in order to obtain multiple regression formulae for dental age calculation, with chronological age as dependent variable, and gender, and upper and lower canines as independent variables. Stepwise regression analysis showed that gender did not contribute significantly to the fit (p=0.881) whereas variables x(1) and x(2) and the first-order interaction between them did. These two variables explained 92.5% of variations in estimated chronological age and the residual standard error was 4.06 years. Lastly, two simple linear regression equations were obtained for age estimation using canines from the maxilla and mandible separately. Both models explained 86% of variations in estimated chronological age and allowed an age-at-death estimate with a residual standard error of about 5.4 years.     

Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in canines by mesial and vestibular peri-apical X-rays

Changes in the size of the pulp canal, caused by apposition of secondary dentine, are the best morphometric parameters for estimating age by X-rays. The apposition of secondary dentine is the most frequently used method for age estimation in adult subjects. In two previous papers, we studied the application of the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical X-rays as an indicator of age at death. The aim of the present study was to test the accuracy of age evaluation by combined analysis of labio-lingual and mesial peri-apical X-rays of lower and upper canines. A total of 200 such X-rays were assembled from 57 male and 43 female skeletons of Caucasian origin, aged between 20 and 79 years. For each skeleton, dental maturity was evaluated by measuring the pulp/tooth area ratio according to labio-lingual and mesial X-rays on upper (x(1), x(2)) and lower (x(3), x(4)) canines. Very good agreement was found between intra-observer measurements. Statistical analysis showed that all variables x(1), x(2), x(3), and x(4) and the first-order interaction between x(1) and x(3) contributed significantly to the fit, so that they were included in the regression model, yielding the following regression formula: Age = 120.737 - 337.112x(1) - 79.709x(2) - 364.534x(3) - 65.655x(4) + 1531.918x(1)x(3) . The residual standard error of estimated ages was 3.62 years, with 94 degrees of freedom, and the median of the residuals was -0.155 years, with an interquartile range of 4.96 years. The accuracy of the method was ME = 2.8 years, where ME is the mean prediction error. The model also explained 94% of total variance (R(2) = 0.94).     

应用枕骨大孔面积判定性别的研究进展

性别是个体识别的主要生物学指标之一,是法医学鉴定不明骨骼残骸的重要初始步骤。枕骨大孔因其解剖学位置的隐匿性、形态学的稳定性、性别与种族的差异性成为法医学性别判定的研究热点,其中枕骨大孔面积是枕骨大孔区域中进行性别判定准确率较高的指标之一。本文以枕骨大孔面积为主要研究对象,就国外学者通过干颅骨样本、CT影像、CBCT影像测量枕骨大孔面积判定性别的方法进行总结,对国内应用枕骨大孔面积进行性别判定研究提供参考。     

干部学院学风建设的机制构建与实践

良好学风是干部教育培训质量的保证。加强学风建设,倡导优良学风,历来是我们党高度重视并着力解决的重要问题。2013年2月,中组部针对学员管理中存在的突出问题,下发了《关于在干部教育培训中进一步加强学员管理的规定》,意在通过强化学员管理带动学风建设。中国延安干部学院结合培训管理工作实际,从今年3月份开始,对所有培训班次在入学动员会上都发出＂弘扬延安精神,树立优良学风＂的倡议书。     

Advocacy Coalition for Historic Preservation in the U.S.: Changes in Motivations

As the policy discussions of historic preservation have become complicated in recent years, the advocacy for the use of heritage is now even more important, and the number of coalitions for promoting the economic value of heritage has been on the rise. This research provides a historical view of the development of advocacy coalition networks that actively pursue the benefits of heritage resources. Through this context, the article then examines a case study of the Wheeling National Heritage Area. The case exemplifies the framework of how coalition networks can provide the structure necessary to push preservation policy in government.