波兰参与中东欧区域合作机制的策略与挑战

波兰是世界上公认的典型的“中等强国”,是中东欧区域实力最强的国家。冷战结束以来,波兰利用自己特殊的地缘优势,积极加强与中欧、东部邻国和广大中东欧国家的合作,创建或参与了“维谢格拉德集团”“东部伙伴关系”“中欧倡议国”组织“三海倡议”等合作机制,力图成为这些合作机制中的核心和引领国家,并希望借助这些合作机制,加强波兰的影响力。波兰对中东欧区域合作的积极参与和倡导,极大地加强了“大海之间”国家的合作,但由于波兰综合实力有限,加上中东欧各国的国家利益具有较大差异,并普遍存在对俄罗斯的能源依赖,波兰在实现战略目标时面临巨大的限制和挑战。如果波兰试图在区域合作中四处出击,平均用力,反而不利于其发挥“中等强国”的影响力。     

Ten years of transition: a review article

Ten years after the launching of the transition process, many books and reports are offering a balance sheet of the transformation that occurred in Central and Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union area. The review article looks at some of them, particularly at Grzegorz W. Kolodko's book published in 2000, “From Shock to Therapy. The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation”. On the basis of this book and of some recent contributions, three major issues are discussed. First, why has there been such a recession in the beginning of the transition process in all countries, and was the recession inevitable? Second, due to the dire criticisms of the standard policy applied in these countries, dubbed the “Washington consensus”, has a “post-Washington consensus” emerged? Third, as we are already engaged in the second decade of the transition process, can we state when it is bound to be over, and what role is played by the European Union enlargement in accelerating the end of transition?     

Institutions and the stabilization of party systems in the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe

Most explanations of party system stability focus on the strength of mass-elite linkages. We highlight the role of institutions, focusing on how electoral rules and elected institutions, especially the presidency, impact elites' incentives to coordinate on a stable set of parties or to form new parties, thus affecting electoral volatility. Using Central and Eastern European elections data, we find that directly elected presidents increase volatility and that presidential power magnifies this effect. Absent a directly elected president, high district magnitude is associated with increased volatility, but district magnitude dampens the impact of an elected president on volatility; hence, our findings underscore the interactive impact of institutions on party systems. We also find evidence that bicameralism and concurrence of presidential and parliamentary elections decrease electoral volatility. Our model not only explains persistently high electoral volatility in Eastern Europe, but the extreme stability of Western European party systems.     

BRITAIN AND YEMEN: THE END OF BRITISH RULE IN SOUTH ARABIA THROUGH THE EYES OF A YOUNG POLITICAL OFFICER

This article publishes for the first time selections of the private correspondence (placing them in their historical context) of John G. T. Shipman (1939–2016), who took up his position as assistant adviser in the Eastern Aden Protectorate at the end of 1962 just as the first signs of political and social change were appearing in South Arabia. He served from this position in different parts of the Eastern Aden Protectorate until 1967. Shipman's correspondence allows for an unmediated appreciation of how people on the ground experienced the historical events at the time, including the British withdrawal in 1967, and highlights the extent of their own grasp of the goings-on when contrasted with the historical record. In this sense, the scope of this article is to allow the voice of one of the many British colonial officials to directly narrate their encounters during the last five years of British colonial rule over southern Arabia. The perceptive eye of a young political officer coupled with the ephemeral character of his handwritten correspondence, which providentially survived for more than five decades although it was never intended for publication, offers a fresh insight into the political and social life of the Eastern Aden Protectorate.     

Morphologic analysis of third-molar mineralization for eastern Turkish children and youth

To date, there has been no chronological age estimation according to third-molar mineralization in eastern Turkish children and adolescents. The aim of this study was to analyze the development of the mandibular third molar and its relationship to chronological age in subjects aged 7-22 years according to Demirjian's stages. The final sample consisted of 1348 [622 males (mean age, 12.72 ± 3.14) and 726 females (mean age, 12.92 ± 2.89)] conventional orthopantomograms from eastern Turkish youths. An independent t-test was performed to evaluate the difference between sexes. Regression analysis was performed to obtain regression formulae for dental age calculation with chronological age. In males, there was a difference between males and females only at stage C (p = 0.03); females were advanced 0.37 years compared with males at the stage C. Third-molar development among eastern Turkish children and youths occurs at a more advanced age than other populations for almost all stages.     

东瓯的族群迁徙与融合过程述论

浙南东瓯族群迁徙与融合经历瓯人、徐人、瓯越、东瓯、东越、山越等过程。瓯人是浙南的原始族群,徐人融合的力量相对薄弱,瓯越是於越人与瓯人大融合的标志,东瓯国进一步证明瓯人文化的相对独立性,东越标示着闽、瓯的进一步融合,山越的消亡说明了瓯(越)人退出了历史舞台。     

《诗经》与两周金文韵部比较

在对已见著录的8000多条两周金文收集、整理的基础上,将两周金文韵部与《诗经》韵部作比较,可以进一步明确金文用韵与《诗经》用韵大体相似的结论。王力先生认为《诗经》韵部29部,冬侵为一部,冬部是在战国时期才分化出来。而金文冬、侵都未发现独用例,从二部的统计数字和冬部与东、阳、耕、侵诸部合韵的情况看,冬部似应独立,所以金文韵部应为30部。     

欧洲主权债务危机的反思及其对东亚货币合作的启示

始于希腊波及欧洲多国的欧洲主权债务危机,不仅威胁欧元区的经济复苏,使欧元区的内在弊端暴露无遗,而且还引发人们对欧洲一体化进程和最优货币区理论的反思,为其他地区经济货币合作特别是东亚货币合作提供诸多启示。     

Taking stock of policy performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Policy outcomes between policy reform,transitional pressure and international influence

Despite the ever growing body of scholarly work on policy developments in the post‐communist New Member States of the European Union (NMS), systematic comparisons of policy outcome performance and its determinants are still scarce. This article identifies patterns of post‐communist policy outcomes across the fields of economic, social and environmental policy. By employing pooled time‐series cross‐sectional analysis with a Fixed Effects Vector Decomposition (FEVD) estimator it investigates to what extent policy outcome performance is determined by differing policy efforts (outputs or reform tracks), transitional conditions and international influences. Although citizens are still negatively affected by the initial economic recession, especially in the social domain, policy reforms and efforts are decisive in determining the outcome performance of the NMS relative to one another in the longer run. Successful and comprehensive market reforms and steering capabilities prove to be particularly important in this regard. Furthermore, internationalisation has an important, albeit ambiguous, impact. While exposure to the world market is reflected in negative policy performance, interaction with and financial commitment from Western European Union countries promote positive policy outcomes.     

Books Received

ABSTRACT

In the summer of 1934 Eastern Thrace was shaken by a wave of antisemitic violence that ended as suddenly as it had begun. The reasons underlying this attack on the Jewish minority are still not well understood, mainly due to the lack of definitive Turkish sources. New evidence indicates that ?brahim Tali, the representative of the Turkish government in Thrace and the district of Çanakkale further south, played a crucial role. The incidents should be understood in light of Turkish–Italian tensions in the spring of 1934, and the strategic need for re-arming the demilitarized zones in Thrace and at the Straits.