东北区域经济一体化的可行性分析

当前,对于市场经济发展已相对滞后的东北地区而言,要缩小与沿海发达地区的差异,重振雄风,必须进行跨越式发展。区域经济一体化是实现这一目标的最优路径。根据对成本和收益的比较来分析东北区域经济的发展,其具备区域经济一体化的必要性和现实性,只要采取有效措施,东北区域经济一体化是指日可待的。     

媒体事件中的网络意见领袖研究

当危机事件转化成媒体事件的时候,新闻和媒体帮助建构了一种共享的社会危机现象,网络意见领袖“脱颖而出”。网络意见领袖的产生需有客观的媒体环境。在媒体事件中,网络意见领袖呈现阶段性的特征,并有自身独特的网络媒介能力和媒价策略。     

A fatal interaction: The role of the victim and function of aggression in intrafamilial homicide

Abstract

This study examines the interaction between the victim and offender during intrafamilial homicide. It is hypothesised that in order to understand the fatal consequences of the interaction, a psychological model must take into account both the role of the victim, as either a significant person or non-significant object, and the function of the aggression, as either instrumental or expressive. The combination of these two proposed facets gives rise to four hypothesised styles of intrafamilial homicide. This hypothesis was tested by analysing 191 intrafamilial homicide cases from the Chicago HITS database. Fifty two crime-scene actions were analysed using Smallest Space Analysis which revealed four distinct thematic clusters of variables. These themes corresponded to the hypothesised facets of victim role and function of aggression. Two related to expressive acts, (a) those murders where the offender kills multiple members of his family and subsequently takes his own life, and (b) cases where the victim is not treated as a significant person in the interaction but is simply used as a target for the offender's rage. The other two relate to instrumental acts, (c) those murders that are a culmination of years of abuse in which the offender sees the killing as the only means of escape, and (d) homicides where the victim is seen as an obstacle to the offender achieving a goal and is removed.

A further test of the validity of these four themes in describing distinct forms of interaction within intrafamilial homicide was to examine the proportion of cases which could be classified according to the framework. The hypothesis that each relationship would map onto just one of the interactional styles was tested by χ² which confirmed that such exclusive relationships existed at the p < .001 level of significance. This has theoretical as well as practical implications in that in using this method of classification it may be possible to infer which family member is responsible for killing their relative.     

米尔健·达马斯卡学术观点的功用性和真确性

在《司法和国家权力的多种面孔》一书中,达马斯卡教授关于制度性安排的两组概念模型的提出[科层型权力组织与协作型权力组织;政策实施型程序与纠纷解决型程序]将那些涉及司法制度和政府治理的变量化约为一套便于掌握的范式,彰显出概念性研究的首要价值——功用性。而在《漂移的证据法》中,达马斯卡超越概念性研究转而专注于实证研究。其研究志趣从功用性转移到了真确性,然而研究方法却并没有改变。对概念性研究路径的依赖导致《漂移的证据法》之核心命题的构建失去了客观性。尽管如此,Ⅸ漂移的证据法》依旧具有重要的指引意义,它提醒学术界应当注意概念性研究与实证研究之间的差别以及忽略这种差别所导致的诸多问题。     

Contextual Effects on Individual Voting Behavior: The Case of Taiwan

This study investigates the voting behavior of the Taiwanese electorate in two different levels of election by taking into account two aggregate-level effects, namely the political and economic contextual effects. Using both individual-level and aggregate-level data to study the 2008 legislative election and the 2012 presidential election in Taiwan, this paper not only confirms that the valence politics explanation outperforms other individual-level voting models in the legislative election and in other elections in Taiwan, but also demonstrates how the two contextual effects influence individual voting behavior. Specifically, the political contextual effect had influence on the individual electoral choice in both the 2008 legislative election and the 2012 presidential election, whereas economic contexts only affect voters’ decision when choosing a president. The multilevel analysis reveals that different individual-level voting models could provide partial explanation for voting behavior; however, the findings also show that we may overlook how contextual effects may affect the electoral choice.     

Set‐theoretic Multimethod Research: The Role of Test Corridors and Conjunctions for Case Selection

Set‐theoretic multimethod research (SMMR) using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) formalizes the choice of cases based on a truth table analysis. We make three recommendations for improving SMMR. First, current standards can lead to faulty case selection if causal inference on a conjunction is the goal. Case selection needs to take into account that the non‐members of a conjunction might be empirically diverse and that only selected types of non‐members are ideal for causal inference. Second, we formally show that cases with similar fuzzy‐set memberships in a term and the outcome are the superior choice for process tracing. They minimize the expected membership in the mechanism and make it most difficult to pass a hypothesis test. Third, we propose formulas that comply with all SMMR principles and identify the best pairs of cases for analysis. We illustrate our arguments with a study of the effectiveness of sanctions against authoritarian regimes.     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家跨国科学研究合作何以可能?——一项定性比较分析

【问题】中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的跨国科学研究合作是承载“一带一路”建设科技交流与创新发展使命的重要议题,然而由于许多“一带一路”沿线国家的制度和法律环境尚不健全,甚至部分国家还存在较强的政治风险和文化冲突,这种合作并非易事。在此背景下,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的跨国科学研究合作何以成为可能?【方法】本研究从宏观分析视角提出了中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间跨国科学研究合作影响因素的分析框架,并采用模糊集定性比较分析方法识别了36个沿线国家案例中的跨国科学研究合作影响因素及其条件组合。【发现】资源投入与制度环境是影响跨国科学研究合作的重要因素,两者相互耦合共同构成跨国科学研究合作的实现路径。进一步地,本研究依据资源投入与制度环境不同耦合程度,识别出强强联合型、资源主导型、经贸带动型与政治兜底型四种跨国科学研究合作类型。【贡献】论文提出的分析框架弥补了以往研究聚焦于中观和微观层面跨国科学研究合作影响因素分析的局限性,区分了不同伙伴国家与中国开展跨国科学研究合作的各种途径,可以更为准确地解释全球治理背景下的跨国科学研究合作机制,对于中国进一步深入推进与沿线国家之间的跨国科学研究合作、提升合作效果具有积极意义。     

改革的内涵与转型的选择——对改革内涵与方向歧变的政治经济学求解

改革在共同的市场趋向基础上,出现了不同方向的歧变,凸显出目标模式的巨大差异,显示了改革和转型的深刻性和可变异性。经济社会转型在本质上是经济社会结构的系统转换,这一大规模制度变迁需要一个能够涵盖全部问题的完整理论框架给予揭示。广义的社会经济转型是一个完整的系统结构转化,是四种内涵的转变,即使最狭义的经济转型,即通常说的经济体制改革也是二重内涵,是交换关系系统和狭义生产关系系统两个系统的转型。现实中呈现和演化出的转型经济的三种趋向性思潮和三种转型模式,正是这二重内涵的不同状况及其不同组合的结果。     

我国政府公共服务的体制分析及其路径选择

建立和完善公共服务体制是构建公共服务型政府的核心目标。在公共服务体制运作的过程中,政府是责无旁贷的主导者和协调者。公共服务体制是一个系统性、整体性的制度集合,整个制度系统至少包括公共服务的执行主体、规划体制、融资体制、供给体制、和绩效评估等基本环节。我国公共服务的总量不足、结构失衡等问题,其根源在于体制机制不健全,涉及到公共服务主体构建、运行机制、保障机制等方面的体制性症结。当前,公共服务体制建设与完善的核心内容包括构建公共服务的制度环境、建立公共财政体制、完善公共服务的市场体制以及推行公共服务均等化等基本策略选择。     

历史坐标中的信任理论之再考察——基于关于信任的延续性调查

基于人类历史的宏观视野之解析表明,历史坐标中的信任包括习俗型信任、契约型信任和合作型信任三种类型.立足实证层面的考察显示,三种信任类型在中国大陆被调研的社区中呈现出同生共存的历史生态和非均衡发展的格局.指向未来的理性审视昭示,合作型信任乃后工业社会之理想的信任类型,其对发展基层民主和促进社区良好治理均存有迫切性,至关重要.