1989-2029年大转型——可以更好或将会更好吗?

本文对中东欧国家自1989年以来发生的后社会主义制度转型进行了理论和现实的阐释,考察了其历史特性,批驳了该地区已经在制度上成为完全成熟的市场经济体的论点,而认为中东欧国家在转型方面还有很长的路要走.文章强调,后社会主义市场转型进程不会呈直线型发展.在现实社会主义经济体的市场改革与后社会主义市场转型之间存在着巨大差异.只有在更加精确地确定目标,同时不是将制度转型当作是自我实现的目标的前提下,不同国家在不同程度上才会取得更好的转型绩效,否则会朝相反方向发展.     

社会工作者提升青少年自尊的策略——基于生态系统理论的分析

个体在青春期的发展任务是建立良好的自我同一性,而自尊的高低对于青少年自我概念和自我认同的形成起着关键作用。因此,社会工作者开展青少年服务的重点是帮助青少年提升自尊感。生态系统理论作为社工介入的理论依据,强调社工要以整体的视角分析问题,从个体与周围环境的互动入手,使服务对象与其所处的系统之间达到平衡协调。在实务工作中,社工可以从微观系统、中间系统、外部系统和宏观系统等多个层面进行干预,协助青少年提升个体自尊,强化其社会适应能力。     

The transition from limited access orders to open access orders in the post-communist Europe

This paper attempts to explain the process of institutional transition of post-communist countries applying conceptual framework proposed by D.C. North, J. J. Wallis, and B. R. Weingast. The first part of the article is devoted to outline the theory of North, Weingast, and Wallis. The second part the theory is used to analyze transformation processes in post-communist countries. An important conclusion of this paper is that cultural, religious and historical factors have crucial impact on formation of new coalitions of elites in the transitions countries. In the countries where Western values were present the transfer of the market and democratic formal institutions was easier. Also, the process of transformation was strongly influenced by external factors, especially the prospect of integration with the European Union, which encouraged elites to take action that benefited the opening of both political and economic markets. These observations suggest that, in general, the success of transformation in transition countries did not depend on the intentional actions of ruling elites.     

An oasis of democracy in an authoritarian sea? Civil society,social, and institutional trust in Georgia

We examine whether the existence of civil society in Georgia has promoted social and institutional trust in the population. As much of the literature suggests, Georgia is different from its neighbors in that civil society development is more advanced. Does participation in civil society lead to more social and institutional trust? Using survey data from the Caucasus Barometer and the World Values Survey, we find that attitudes regarding social and institutional trust are more developed in Georgia than in its neighbors, and that activity in voluntary organizations is positively associated with social and institutional trust in Georgia.     

Seal the Deal: Bargaining Positions,Institutional Design,and the Duration of Preferential Trade Negotiations

Multilateral negotiations at the World Trade Organization have stalled. This has contributed to a steep rise in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). At the same time, negotiations for PTAs have not always proven quick and painless: While some treaties are sealed within a few months or days only, other agreements are preceded by protracted bargaining processes in trade and trade-related issue areas. In this article, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical variation. More specifically, we argue that PTA negotiations take longer the greater the distance between the prospective partners’ initial bargaining positions. Moreover, we contend that negotiation processes become more protracted the higher the relative ambition of the prospective PTA. Due to the limited links to the domestic political arena in autocracies, we expect this latter effect to play out for groups of democratic bargaining partners only. We test these two hypotheses for 198 preferential trade negotiations using novel measures for bargaining templates and the ambition of PTA clauses. In our two-stage survival models, we find support for our argument. In line with qualitative evidence from recent preferential trade initiatives, our models indicate that services, investment and intellectual property rights are particularly sticky agenda items for democratic leaders at the international bargaining table.     

从韩国传统公私观看其近代民族国家建设问题

现代民族国家诞生于欧洲的特殊历史背景下,其背后是民族主义的竞争逻辑,因此它亦拥有巨大的国家动员能力。近代时期,东亚三国之要务在于建成现代民族国家以抵御外侮,但唯有日本获得成功,中韩两国均遭遇重大挫折。思想观念上的一个重要原因在于中韩两国与日本传统公私观的不同。在思想与政治上受到中国巨大影响的朝鲜王朝,其超越狭隘民族意识的儒家"天下为公"思想使其在现代民族国家和现代国际体系的竞争逻辑面前表现出诸多不适应。但这种看似具有时代局限性的普遍主义思想,或许却能够为解决今天东亚地区的各种悬案提供一些思想资源,成为新的国际关系形态的指导精神。     

CCTV监控系统、犯罪预防与虚拟侦查

侦查工作的信息化是虚拟侦查得以展开的必要条件,在信息的采集和使用领域,CCTV监控系统对于虚拟侦查具有不可低估的重要作用。通过制定规范的CCTV监控程序,建立有效的内部和外部监督制约机制,能够确保CCTV监控系统得到合法、有效地运用,并且避免公民的隐私权遭到不应有的侵犯。     

当代中国政策议程创建模式嬗变分析

政策议程的研究在当前学术界引起了越来越多的关注,但是已有的研究成果表明,这些理论范式较多地从即时的视阈对政策议程的创建过程进行解释,而缺少历时向度的考察与对比研究,因而只能对某一具体的社会问题如何进入政策议程进行个案式的说明,而不能归纳和概括一个特定时期政策议程创建活动的总体特征和一般规律,当然也就难以从宏观层面对不同时期的议程建构模式进行纵向比较分析。因此,推进研究的深入发展亟需将个案式的解释模型上升为一般化的分析框架,通过对不同历史时期的创建活动进行动态化的梳理和比较,实现由单一向度的分析视角向"立体化"、多维度的研究方向转变。基于这一思考,以探究政策议程创建活动的"情境转换"与"过程变迁"及其内在联系为主旨,以政策议程创建模式为分析单元,提出了体制-过程模型,并以此为工具,以改革开放以来不同历史阶段的政策议程创建活动为考察对象,通过对三种政策议程创建模式的特征、过程及其背景的比较分析,力图在探究我国三十年间政策议程创建模式演进的一般规律的基础上对体制-过程模型的应用进行说明和验证。     

Is a Federal European Constitution for an Enlarged European Union Necessary? Some Preliminary Suggestions using Public Choice Analysis

In order to guarantee a further successful functioning of the enlarged European Union a Federal European Constitution is proposed. Six basic elements of a future European federal constitution are developed: the European commission should be turned into a European government and the European legislation should consist of a two chamber system with full responsibility over all federal items. Three further key elements are the subsidiarity principle, federalism and the secession right, which are best suited to limiting the domain of the central European authority to which certain tasks are given, such as defense, foreign and environmental policy. Another important feature is direct democracy, which provides the possibility for European voters to participate actively in political decision making, to break political and interest group cartels, and to prevent an unwanted shifting of responsibilities from EU member states to the European federal level.     

从泰国军人干政看发展中国家政治制度危机

军事政变不仅是一种军事行动,更是一种政治行动.本文试图通过对泰国军事政变的分析,探讨在发展中国家军人干政的原理.本文认为,政变的发生取决于一个国家的社会结构因素和政治制度因素,其中政治参与的无序化与领导人退出机制的不完善是引发军事政变的最重要原因.虽然军人干政在历史上曾经起过积极作用,但在现代社会,军人干政已经不适应甚至危害民主政治的发展.为解决这个问题,发展中国家应该从调整社会结构、扩大政治参与和提升政治制度化水平等三个方面持续地付出努力.