Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17–18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17–18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

劳动关系研究英美模式比较——形成的回顾与20世纪80年代后的变化

美国和英国是劳动关系理论发源地,也是对劳动关系理论发展做出重大贡献的国家。他们为劳动关系研究提供了最基本的研究范式。由于两个国家工业化的道路不同,工会运动发展的路径不同,两国劳动关系的研究在研究范围、研究方法、学者和学科来源以及构成上都存在一定差异。     

质的研究报告——社团组织在社区教育资源整合中的地位与作用

在我国社会发展中,社团组织具有积极力量.而支持与扶持积极、健康的社团组织,并极力促进这些社团组织的壮大与发展,对目前我国政府在社区教育投入不多的现实条件下,是一个很有前景的社会事业.调研表明,在街道的社区教育活动中,居民自发组织起来的各种社团组织在地区的社区教育活动中发挥着无可替代的作用.     

日本诉因制度论略

诉因制度是日本刑事诉讼法借鉴大陆法系职权主义诉讼程序和英美法系对抗主义诉讼程序的一项独创.主要探讨诉因的基本涵义、诉因与相关范畴的关系、诉因在日本刑事诉讼中的运行规则、诉因的主要功能及其对我国刑事诉讼的借鉴意义.在刑事诉讼中,诉因可以协调控诉方、裁判方和辩护方在刑事诉讼中的相互关系,不但有利于制约公诉机关的起诉变更权,而且有利于防止司法权滥用和保障辩护权的有效行使.在当前我国刑事诉讼程序由职权主义向对抗主义转变的过程中,借鉴日本的诉因制度有利于克服我国刑事司法实践中的某些缺陷和弊端.     

我国反补贴原则及对策初探

随着我国外贸出口面临的反补贴调查情况剧增和中国完全市场经济地位的逐步确立,我国现存的某些产业补贴措施的影响,正在由潜在危胁转化为现实危害.进口国具备了同时使用"反倾销"与"反补贴"两种手段和其他的保障措施,来限制中国的产品出口的条件,给中国的出口企业带来了严重的影响.反补贴已经成为将WTO协议及相关规则融入我国法律体系和制定产业政策时必须加以认真研究的一个问题.     

集团诉讼制度的价值研究——兼评我国的代表人诉讼制度

价值是反映主体与客体之间需要和满足需要的效应关系的范畴,是深刻认识集团诉讼制度的良好视角和工具.集团诉讼价值是法律价值、民事诉讼价值下位的概念.集团诉讼制度的独特品性在于克服集体行动的障碍,共通性在于体现了在新的社会条件下民事诉讼目的论的发展.     

Does online voting change the outcome? Evidence from a multi-mode public policy referendum

Do online and offline voters differ in terms of policy preferences? The growth of Internet voting in recent years has opened up new channels of participation. Whether or not political outcomes change as a consequence of new modes of voting is an open question. Here we analyze all the votes cast both offline (n = 5.7 million) and online (n = 1.3 million) and compare the actual vote choices in a public policy referendum, the world's largest participatory budgeting process, in Rio Grande do Sul in June 2014. In addition to examining aggregate outcomes, we also conducted two surveys to better understand the demographic profiles of who chooses to vote online and offline. We find that policy preferences of online and offline voters are no different, even though our data suggest important demographic differences between offline and online voters.     

The structure of foreign policy attitudes in transatlantic perspective: Comparing the United States,United Kingdom,France and Germany

While public opinion about foreign policy has been studied extensively in the United States, there is less systematic research of foreign policy opinions in other countries. Given that public opinion about international affairs affects who gets elected in democracies and then constrains the foreign policies available to leaders once elected, both comparative politics and international relations scholarship benefit from more systematic investigation of foreign policy attitudes outside the United States. Using new data, this article presents a common set of core constructs structuring both American and European attitudes about foreign policy. Surveys conducted in four countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany) provide an expanded set of foreign policy‐related survey items that are analysed using exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM). Measurement equivalence is specifically tested and a common four‐factor structure that fits the data in all four countries is found. Consequently, valid, direct comparisons of the foreign policy preferences of four world powers are made. In the process, the four‐factor model confirms and expands previous work on the structure of foreign policy attitudes. The article also demonstrates the capability of ESEM in testing the dimensionality and cross‐national equivalence of social science concepts.     

对当前我国高校安全保卫工作的研究

高校安全保卫工作对维护高校稳定和安全、保证高校正常教育教学和科研秩序具有重要作用,是一项政策性强而工作难度大的工作。在新的历史条件下,高等院校应紧跟时代发展和形势变化,大胆创新、开拓进取,积极研究高校安全保卫工作的特点和规律,为进一步加强高校安全保卫工作提供理论依据。     

科学发展观视野下地方财经高校科研管理研究

科学发展观是中国特色社会主义理论体系的最新内容,对高校科研管理工作具有重大指导意义。按照科学发展观的要求进行科研管理,有利于促进高校科研与市场接轨、提高科研成果的转化率、更好地为社会生活服务。以科学发展观指导科研管理工作,就是要在全面、准确理解科学发展观的科学内涵和精神实质的基础上,结合高校科研工作实际,按照科学发展观的要求,积极推进科研管理创新,促进高校科研水平不断提高。