Do volatile voters vote less correctly? An analysis of correct voting among vote (intention) switchers in US presidential election campaigns

The literature on electoral volatility and the literature on electoral campaigns hold contradictory views on voters switching vote (intention) during the campaign. In this note, we shed new light on this contradiction, making two contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Second, we distinguish levels of correct voting and the impact of the act of switching on the correctness of the vote. Our analyses of vote-switching in American elections show that, while volatile voters are less likely to vote correctly, they are more likely to switch from an incorrect to the correct party than vice versa. Furthermore, we show that following the campaign more closely makes voters more likely to switch vote (intention) towards the correct party.     

Small arms and light weapons: the disjunction problem

ABSTRACT

Growing in range and urgency, humanitarian needs now pose increasingly acute questions for national security policy formulation. Whether over forced migration, food scarcity or nefarious electronic penetration, state security preferences face uneasy accommodations with individual needs be it for child survival, basic sustenance or rights to privacy. This paper deliberates a further field of increasingly apparent value contest: that involving the transfer, diversion and lethal use of small arms and light weapons (SALW). After outlining the scale of this phenomenon, existing regulatory mechanisms over SALW transfers are assessed. It is argued that these controls are inadequate, a deficiency that is embedded within a range of inter-linked disjunctions. They are outlined in a model that is evaluated against empirical findings. Where SALW control inadequacy is causally connected to the disjunctive model, it is argued, current levels of SALW-induced casualties are unlikely to abate. The paper concludes by considering feasible options for enhanced management of global SALW proliferation.     

新时代的机构编制管理:战略定位、辩证关系与改革路径

机构编制管理关系到行政成本的高低和行政机构的效能。机构编制管理中的突出问题在于编制配置不科学、不合理,规范化和制度化建设相对滞后。新时代的机构编制管理需要站在治国理政和治理能力现代化的战略高度,平衡“管牢”与“管活”双重目标,处理好事业发展需要与总量控制、“条线”要求与编制管理整体、短期成效与长期成本、编制增加与编制减少、编制管理部门收紧与财政部门宽松之间的辩证关系。在此基础上,通过立法保障、全盘统筹、规划引领、观念更新、机制联动等多维度改革为国家治理能力现代化奠定坚实的组织基础。     

肌肉电导率和pH两指标联用推断死亡时间

目的探讨肌肉浸渍液电导率(electrical conductivity,EC)、pH两指标联用在PMI推断上的意义。方法 SD大鼠处死后,保存在25℃环境中,于不同PMI提取大鼠后肢肌肉制备匀浆液,测定浸渍液EC和pH。分析EC、pH两指标联合使用推断PMI的意义。结果 EC、pH两指标随PMI均呈现阶段性变化:1d内,pH明显下降,EC无明显变化;2~3d,EC、pH均快速增大;4~10d,EC继续增大,而pH变化不明显。EC、pH联合使用,有助于划分PMI时段,以及特定时段内指标的优化:1d内,选择pH最佳,2~3d,EC、pH联用最佳,4~10d,选择EC最佳。结论 EC、pH联用有助于提高PMI推断的准确性。     

公共服务供给机制转型中的公益性岗位研究

我国自2002年起开始施行公益性岗位的政策,这一政策对拓宽就业渠道、缓解失业压力起到了一定的作用。但目前依靠政府进一步开发和购买公益性岗位的难度很大。本文对国内外公共服务供给机制转型进行了比较分析,在此基础上提出以下建议:我国应进一步完善公共服务的供给机制,以社区为平台,通过推动购买服务的方式,调动社会组织服务社区和吸收就业的功能,以推动公益性岗位的增加。     

“两个普遍”要求乡镇（街道）工会建设新突破

当前,乡镇(街道)工会已成为工会组织体系中承上启下的重要环节,加强乡镇(街道)工会建设,落实"组织起来、切实维权"工作方针,亟待解决"有人干事"和"有钱办事"等问题,按照工会规范化建设要求,明确乡镇(街道)总工会法律地位,增强基层工会活力,确保依法推动企业普遍建立工会组织,依法推动企业普遍开展工资集体协商,即"两个普遍"工作目标的实现。     

Job Expectations and Career Goals of Title IV-E Child Welfare Social Workers with Varying Levels of Work Experience: How Do They Differ?

A comparison of three groups of Title IV-E child welfare workers revealed significant differences among all groups on job expectations and career goals. New workers reported most positive expectations for their jobs, and greatest interest in child welfare careers and in pursuing educational goals. Seasoned workers expressed least positive expectations and least interest in future child welfare careers and educational goals. Findings may assist universities in student selection and curriculum. Child welfare agencies may benefit in areas of recruitment, training, and policies. Realistic job previews might moderate high expectations for new workers and reduce unmet expectations for experienced workers.     

关于转型期企业共青团建设的几点思考

企业团组织引导青年发展,应基于青年特点和企业的实际展开。企业团组织要发挥政治上引领青年、帮助青年成才、对青年的考核等方面的作用。企业团建工作要从健全组织机构、介入企业文化、推进组织创新、规范组织生活、开展青年养成教育等方面入手。     

Digital Wiretap Warrant: Improving the security of ETSI Lawful Interception

Lawful Interception (LI) of data communications is an essential tool for Law Enforcement Agencies (LEA) in order to investigate criminal activities carried out or coordinated by means of Internet. However, the ability to secretly monitor the activities of citizens also has a great impact on civil rights. Therefore, democratic societies must prevent abuse and ensure that LI is only employed in specific cases with justifiable grounds or a probable cause. Nowadays, in many countries each interception must be authorized by a wiretap warrant, usually issued by a judge. However, this wiretap warrant is merely an administrative document that should be checked by the network or service operator before enabling the monitoring of its customers, whose communications are later handed over to a LEA in plaintext. This paper proposes the idea of employing a Digital Wiretap Warrant (DWW), which further protects the civil liberties, security and privacy of LI by ensuring that monitoring devices can only be enabled with a valid DWW, and by encrypting the captured data so only the authorized LEA is able to decrypt those communications. Moreover, in the proposed DWW framework all digital evidence is securely time-stamped and signed, thus guaranteeing that it has not been tampered with, and that a proper chain of custody has been met. In particular this paper proposes how to apply the DWW concept to the lawful interception framework defined by the ETSI LI Technical Committee, and evaluates how the additional security mechanisms could impact the performance and storage costs of a LI platform.     

我国社会组织参与社会管理的现实性探析

改革开放后,我国社会结构发生变化,国家社会由一体化向二重化发展,社会呈现多样化,政府在社会管理中覆盖面窄、手段僵硬、效率低下的特点已不能适应现代社会的发展,急需转变社会管理方式。新时期下的社会组织获得蓬勃发展,它自主、自律、民间、灵活、高效、贴近基层的特点能够弥补市场和政府在公共领域的不足,符合我国政府职能转变的要求,将社会组织引入社会管理,能够实现政府和社会资源配置的最优化,最大程度地保障公民权益。