论中美俄在北极的复杂关系

北极国际格局十分复杂,中美俄三国在北极的关系呈现出竞争与合作并存的复杂态势,在北极利益的争夺之中也保持着多领域的合作,在不同象限有不同的"朋友"或"敌人"的定位,任何简单化的解读都无法厘清相互之间的关系。三国不同的利益诉求和战略逻辑导致俄美合作回旋空间缩小而冲突持续存在,中美竞争导致美方伤及自身,俄罗斯虽然试图"转向自身",但中俄两国北极合作将继续深化。中美俄作为重要的北极利益攸关方,应探索北极合作新模式,维护北极地区的和平与稳定。     

从中日四个政治文件探析两国关系发展轨迹及未来趋势

中日四份政治文件代表着中日关系发展的主要脉络,两国从结束敌对状态、建立邦交关系发展到战略互惠关系经历了曲折复杂的过程。从第四份政治文件的签署到现在已有十多年,随着中国“一带一路”倡议的深化实施、美国从“亚太再平衡”到“印太战略”的调整、日本追求战略性外交的努力等,国际形势、地缘政治格局、国家能力和心态早已发生了深刻变化。本文以新古典现实主义为基础,根据当今国际政治发展现状构建了新的理论模型,从体系层次、国家层次和个人层次上来解析中日关系发展的历史和趋势,得出当今国际社会已经具备了升级中日两国关系的新的时代契机和因素。中日关系的深化、合作领域的拓展、合作程度的加深将是中日未来发展的必然趋势,也将对东亚地区乃至国际社会的稳定繁荣具有重要的现实意义。     

Australia and Brexit: Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Abstract

Recalling the debate about Britain’s applications to join the European Economic Community in the 1960s, Australians are now reacting to and assessing the implications of the Brexit vote for Australia. However, the contemporary situation is very different from that which prevailed in the 1960s. The article assesses Australian commentary and reactions to Brexit before and after the vote. Taking account of the various possible versions of Brexit, there is an assessment of the range of economic and political-strategic implications for Australia. Whatever the final form of Brexit, Australia will need to foster close relationships with both the UK and the post-Brexit European Union. In relation to immigration policy in a post-Brexit UK, Australia’s immigration system does not necessarily provide the ‘answer’; Australia’s relationship with New Zealand through the agreement on Closer Economic Relations might be relevant to Brexit in at least some respects as another model for how economic integration might develop in a regional context. If Brexit was at least in part a populist right-wing reaction to globalisation and neoliberalism, parallels in Australia can also be seen, such as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation; other parallels in Australia relating to Brexit include issues relating to political prudence and the manner of constitutional change.     

The UK and Reform of the EU: Need for Eternal Vigilance

As the government of the United Kingdom prepares itself for negotiations with the European Union for a significant rebalancing of the relationship between the EU and its member states, the letter addressed by the prime minister of the UK to the president of the European Council has been seen as a document of some importance. The author argues that this letter, and a speech from the prime minister which followed it, deserve close study given their far-reaching implications for the future of UK–EU ties. The article also underlines the importance of eternal vigilance on the part everyone involved in the negotiating process.     

Reflections on Global Climate Politics Post Paris: Power,Interests and Polycentricity

The Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in December 2015 has the potential to shape future climate politics and governance significantly, with broader implications for world politics at large. First of all, it solidifies the importance of ‘low-emission capacity’ as a source of power in international climate politics. Second, it supports the ongoing societal mobilisation and reinforces interest in the new climate economy. Third, it points, as a result, toward a more multipolar future climate world order. Finally, the Agreement recalibrates the role of the multilateral UN process as providing overall direction towards global decarbonisation, while leaving implementation to states, other international organisations and various non-state actors and initiatives. Therefore, phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions within the next few decades requires subnational and national policy frameworks that facilitate and promote overachievement and hence drive an upward dynamic – making the Paris Agreement a real-world experiment with an uncertain outcome.     

War Games redux? Cyberthreats,US–Russian strategic stability,and new challenges for nuclear security and arms control

Some 30 years since the release of the Hollywood blockbuster War Games, the possibility that hackers might break into nuclear command and control facilities, compromise early warning or firing systems, or even cause the launch of a nuclear weapon has become disturbingly real. While this challenge will impact all nuclear-armed states, it appears particularly acute for the USA and Russia given their large, diverse, and highly alerted nuclear forces. The fact that east–west relations have deteriorated to a nadir perhaps not seen since the 1980s, strategic instability has increased – particularly in the wake of the Ukraine and now Syria crises – and that the nuclear arms reductions agenda appears to have reached a standstill makes this challenge particularly pressing. In this discouraging milieu, new cyberthreats are both exacerbating the already strained US–Russia strategic balance – particularly the perceived safety and security of nuclear forces – and at the same time creating new vulnerabilities and problems that might be exploited by a third party. Taken together, these dynamics add another major complication for current arms control agreements and possible future nuclear cuts, and also seem likely to increase the possibility of accidents, miscalculation, and potential unauthorised nuclear use, especially given the large number of nuclear weapons that remain on “hair-trigger” alert.     

新形势下民办高校党外人士培养的若干思考

做好新形势下民办高校党外人士的统战工作,不仅关系到众多党外人士的培养和稳定,而且关系到民办高校自身的生存与壮大,同时更是党的教育事业的繁荣与发展的保证。民办高校党外人士的培养需注意其自身呈现出的新特点,了解其中存在的问题,重在培养,落在使用。     

美国中小学校园安全策略研究

美国在中小学校园安全管理方面，注重校园安全立法，强调校园安全管理的系统性、有序性和事故防范的主动性。美国的各级教育行政部门都将学校安全保障作为自己的一项重要职责，为学校在人力、物力、财力等方面提供较为充分的支持，对中小学生的安全教育已经成为一种常态教育和生存技能教育。除开展演习之外，美国中小学校会聘请常驻校园警察，以帮助学校制订适合其自身特点的校园安全计划，处理校园安全事故，开展对学生的安全教育和技能培训。此外，美国的中小学校还重视发挥社区、家长和志愿者在维护校园安全中的作用。     

贿赂外国公职人员或者国际公共组织官员罪若干问题研究

我国刑法中的贿赂外国公职人员或者国际公共组织官员罪,其渊源在于《联合国反腐败公约》。但是,在我国将国际公约内化为国内刑法的过程中,本罪的若干方面仍与公约存在脱节之处。笔者认为,应将本罪构成要件中的＂不正当商业利益＂修正为＂不正当利益＂;重新界定＂外国公职人员和国际公共组织官员＂的内涵;扩大＂贿赂＂的范畴;最后提出在我国刑法中应增设外国公职人员、国际公共组织官员受贿罪。     

The Love That Dare Not Speak its Name? George W. Bush: State and Nation Building in Afghanistan, 2001–2

George W. Bush was an unlikely statebuilder. This controversial activity—one that he and many others persistently referred to as ‘nation building’—held little appeal for America's 43rd president. He did, however, learn to appreciate Charles Krauthammer's axiom that ‘no sane person opposes nation building in places that count’. This article posits that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, a more nuanced reading of the evidence shows that Bush rapidly and fairly consistently adopted something that resembled statebuilding, even if he was reluctant to acknowledge this in public. Bush's early decisions in Afghanistan merit a second look, not least because they pivot on a U-turn that established the foundations for a lengthy broad spectrum commitment that would last more than ten years.