Theoretical and Empirical Work on the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime

Part of the ongoing debate between Cantor and Land and Greenberg centers on differing opinions about the question of interest in Cantor and Land (1985). We begin this article with our opinion that Cantor and Land's theory relates changes in the business cycle to changes in the aggregate rate of crime. We then question whether year-to-year changes adequately reflect changes in the business cycle, which last on average 4 years, and we refer to an article by Cook and Zarkin (1985) which presents an alternative method of measuring business cycle changes. We also discuss how Greenberg's use of cointegration provides an alternative way of addressing the difficult statistical problem of nonstationarity without resorting to first differences. Our final contribution involves noticing that opportunity and motivational theories of crime can be structurally identified by focusing on different types of crime rather than temporal lags. We demonstrate this idea by splitting car theft into joyriding and theft for profit. We show that joyriding appears to be driven by opportunity, while the causal structure of theft for profit is less clear.     

On Theory, Models, Model-Testing, and Estimation

I reply to comments and criticisms of my article raised in this Special Issue by Cantor and Land, Britt, O'Brien, Levitt, and Paternoster and Bushway.     

氧乐氰菊的毒理试验

目的研究氧乐氰菊的毒理作用.方法复制小白鼠、家兔氧乐氰菊中毒模型,测定小白鼠经口LD50、腹腔注射致死剂量和死亡时间,观察家兔中毒表现及病理改变.结果小白鼠经口LD50为36.64mg/kg.腹腔注射致死量为10mg/kg,腹腔注射后出现中毒时间为1min,出现死亡时间为4.5min,家兔中毒后出现系列的有机磷酸酯类、拟除虫菊酯类农药中毒的病理改变.结论研究结果对指导氧乐氰菊中毒的法医病理检验及毒物分析具有实用意义.     

The Standardized Field Sobriety Tests: A Review of Scientific and Legal Issues

This article details the history and development of the National Highway and Safety Administration's Standardized Field Sobriety Tests. They are reviewed in terms of relevant scientific, psychometric, and legal issues. It is concluded that the research that supports their use is limited, important confounding variables have not been thoroughly studied, reliability is mediocre, and that their developers and prosecution-oriented publications have oversold the tests. Further, case law since their development has severed the tests from their validation data, so that they are not admissible on the criterion for which they were validated (blood alcohol concentration), and admissible for a criterion for which they were not (mental, physical, or driving impairment). Directions for further research are presented.     

Development of a simple and non-destructive examination for counterfeit coins using acoustic characteristics

The true incidence of anaphylactic latex reactions and their associated morbidity and mortality remain poorly defined. It is noteworthy that a number of groups of individuals are at risk for anaphylactic reactions to latex during surgical and medical procedures; one of these groups is represented by the obstetric and gynaecologic population. A case of unrecognized first anaphylactic reaction to latex in a pregnant woman patient who underwent a caesarean section is presented. The diagnosis of latex allergy was missed and the following day the woman underwent a surgical re-exploration complicated by fatal cardiovascular arrest. At post-mortem examination, pulmonary mast cells in the bronchial walls and capillary septa were identified and a great number of degranulating mast cells with tryptase-positive material outside the cells was documented. A post-mortem latex-specific IgE test showed a high titre (14.00 U/I). Latex-induced fatal anaphylactic shock was recorded as the cause of death. This case highlights some of the practical difficulties in the initial diagnosis and subsequent investigation of fatal anaphylactic reaction during anaesthesia. Anaphylaxis is often misdiagnosed because many other pathologic conditions may present identical clinical manifestations, so anaphylactic shock must be differentiated from other causes of circulatory collapse. Although latex allergy usually has a delayed onset after the start of the surgery and most often a slow onset too, it should be always suspected if circulatory collapse and respiratory failure occur during surgery, even if the patient does not belong to a risk group; in the presence of identified risk factors for latex allergy a well-founded suspicion must be stronger, leading to an immediate discontinuation of the potential trigger.     

正交试验法优选苓桂术甘汤的提取工艺

目的 优选苓桂术甘汤的水提取工艺.方法 采用正交试验,考察加水量、煎煮时间、煎煮次数对苓桂术甘汤中肉桂酸含量及干膏得率的影响.结果 优选出的最佳提取工艺为:加10倍量的水,提取2次,每次1 h.结论 该提取工艺由于稳定、合理、可行,可用于苓桂术甘汤中有效成分的提取.     

论表象时代的终结

在科学证言的采信上，法院从有效性的表象或者替代者角度制定了标准，在19世纪和20世纪早期，法院依赖于市场的外行人对专家的行当的普遍接受这一表象。依赖于表象既会使法院犯下假阴性的错误，也会使法院犯下假阳性的错误。在Daubert案中，法院抛弃老旧的Frye普遍接受表象．要求法官要进行认识论探究，以确定所提出的证言是否值得...     

老年人生活满意度影响因素实证分析——以江苏省泰州市为例

老年人生活满意度是老年人对自身生活状态的主观评价,是反映养老质量的直接指标。为了解老年人养老状况和生活满意度,并找出老年人生活满意度的影响因素,在借鉴了相关研究成果的基础上,该文对江苏省泰州市老年人养老状况进行了调查,对可能影响老年人生活满意度的若干因素进行了卡方检验和回归分析,找出了影响老年人生活满意度的因素,对于改进养老模式、改善养老状况具有一定意义。     

红河州鸡衣原体病的研究——病原分离鉴定和人工感染试验

从采自发病或死亡小鸡的肝、脾、肺和腹水等病料中分离到４株衣原体。将分离物接种７日龄鸡胚卵黄囊，能致鸡胚规律性死亡；该分离株对磺胺嘧啶（ＳＤ）具有抵抗力，碘染色不着色，鉴定为鹦鹉热衣原体（Ｃｈｌａｍｙｄｉａｐｓｉｔａｃｉ）；毒力测定对鸡胚致死毒价为１０－１０ＥＬＤ５０／０．４ｍｌ。用该分离株对健康小雏做人工感染试验，可发生与自然病例相同的症状和病理变化。同时对分离毒株形态特征进行了电镜观察     

牛传染性鼻气管炎间接ELISA诊断方法的建立

以牛肾细胞系(MDBK)培养牛传染性鼻气管炎病毒(IBRV)Bartha Nu/67株,经超速离心纯化病毒,再经超声破碎处理后作为诊断抗原,建立了检测牛血清IBRV抗体的间接酶联免疫吸附试验。该ELISA的判定标准为:血清D490 nm值大于0.369的判为阳性,小于0.295的判为阴性,在0.295与0.369之间的为可疑。特异性和重复性试验结果表明,该方法特异性高、重复性好。与法国进口ELISA抗体诊断试剂盒比较,其符合率为96.3%;与中和试验比较,符合率为95.8%,且敏感性更高。应用该诊断方法调查了我国部分地区IBRV的感染情况,结果显示,这些地区的IBRV感染率为67.1%。