我国信心指数对宏观经济反应与预测的能力分析

信心指数是反映宏观经济现状和未来趋势的先行指标。在分析信心与GDP关系的基础上,通过对我国2004年第一季度到2012年第三季度的消费者、企业家、经济学家信心指数和同期宏观经济数据,运用建立向量自回归模型、误差修正模型(VECM),向量自回归模型中的脉冲响应和预测方差分解,以及Granger因果检验,分析了三类信心指标对GDP指数的反应与预测能力,比较分析信心指数的先导作用,提出增强市场群体信心的建设性意见。     

Differences in suggestibility between 5–6 and 10–11 year olds: The relationship with self confidence

Abstract

Differences in suggestibility and recall between 5–6 and 10–11 year olds were investigated. It was hypothesized that younger children would be more suggestible than older children and that differences in self confidence between older and younger children would influence these differences. It was also predicted that older children would recall more information than younger children, and that this age difference would be less strongly influenced by self confidence. Forty-one 5 and 6 and fifty-six 10 and 11 year olds were interviewed about a video they had witnessed. Several factual and misleading questions were asked, and the percentage of correct answers to the factual questions (to measure recall) and the percentage of incorrect answer to the misleading questions (to measure suggestibility) were calculated. The level of self confidence of the children was measured with six items of the Behavioural Academic Self Esteem Scale (BASE), reflecting self confidence. The outcomes supported the hypotheses: Younger children were more suggestible than older children and this difference disappeared when controlled for self confidence. Older children gave mere information about the event than younger children, and these age differences were, to much less extent, influenced by their self confidence.     

贝叶斯主观置信度的合理性及客观性分析

现代贝叶斯主义概率论把主体对事件或命题的信念解释为一个人的主观置信度,其主要目的是将信念变成可量度的或可操作的。通过对主观置信度的合理性与客观性进行分析,我们可以发现科学共同体形成主体间性置信度需要的两个必要条件即共同的目标与流通的信息。     

Gender Differences in Competition

Negotiating in a highly competitive environment may prove particularly challenging for women. We describe three experimental studies that investigated and documented differences in the competitive behaviors of men and women. The first study examined gender differences in competitive performances. In a setting in which men and women performed at similar levels in single-sex competitions, men were found to outperform women in mixed-sex competitions. The second study focused on the decision of men and women to enter a competition. In a mixed-sex setting in which we found no gender differences in performance, many more men than women chose a compensation scheme in which they had to compete against others. Finally, we report the results of a recent study that examined an institutional intervention that may encourage more women to compete. Specifically, we found that a quota-like affirmative action environment in which women must be equally represented encourages many more women to compete. This response was greater than one would predict based solely on the increase in one's chances of winning and can be partially explained by the fact that the affirmative action competition was more gender specific.     

公示公信原则的博弈分析

在维护交易安全和保护第三人方面,采物权行为无因性理论还是采公示公信原则一直是我国法学界一个争论的热点问题。本文将用经济学中的博弈论对二者进行分析,并在此基础上论证公示公信原则存在的经济合理性,简述了在维护第三人利益和交易安全方面,公示公信原则已经远远胜过了物权行为无因性理论。     

Trust in government increased during the Covid-19 pandemic in Australia and New Zealand

Using an online panel, we surveyed a representative sample of 500 each in Australia and New Zealand during July 2020, in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic. We find trust in government has increased dramatically, with around 80% of respondents agreeing government was generally trustworthy. Around three quarters agreed management of the pandemic had increased their trust in government. Over 85% of respondents have confidence that public health scientists work in the public interest. Testing four hypotheses, we find that income and education predict trust in government and confidence in public health scientists, as does voting for the political party in government. Trust in government and confidence in public health scientists strongly predict Covid-19 phone application use, largely through convincing people the App is beneficial. Trust in government then is both an outcome and antecedent of government effectiveness. Building trust is important for governments implementing difficult policy responses during a crisis.     

精神病住院患者通信自由立法保护探析

众所周知,我国目前尚无统一的精神卫生法,精神病住院患者的权益时常受到忽视,甚至遭到他人侵犯。比如在通信方面,患者在医院往往不能依自己的意愿随时会见、联系他人。而能否自由地通信,无疑关系着每一位住院患者的切身利益。对精神病住院患者通信自由进行立法保护,尽快制定精神卫生法既是依法治国的基本要求,也是我国的现实需要。     

Eyewitness susceptibility to co-witness misinformation is influenced by co-witness confidence and own self-confidence

If an eyewitness is exposed to a co-witness statement that incorrectly blames an innocent bystander for a crime, the eyewitness can be influenced by this statement and also blame the innocent bystander for the crime. This effect is known as blame conformity. In two studies, we examined whether or not this effect is influenced by the degree of confidence a co-witness expresses in her incorrect statement (Study 1) and an eyewitness’s own level of self-confidence (Study 2). Participant eyewitnesses first watched a crime video featuring a perpetrator and an innocent bystander, then read a co-witness statement about the crime that either correctly blamed the perpetrator, incorrectly blamed the innocent bystander, or blamed nobody (a control condition). They were then asked who committed the crime. In Study 1, participants who read an incorrect statement were at increased risk of engaging in blame conformity when the co-witness expressed a high level of confidence, compared to a low level of confidence, in the accuracy of her statement. In Study 2, participants who were lowest in self-confidence were at increased risk of engaging in blame conformity. The theoretical underpinnings of these effects are considered.     

Effects of Testimonial Inconsistencies and Eyewitness Confidence on Mock-Juror Judgments

This study examined the interaction between testimonial consistency and eyewitness confidence on mock-jurors' judgments of probability that the defendant committed the crime and verdicts. In a 2 (testimonial consistency) × 2 (confidence) between-groups design, 130 mock-jurors listened to an audio-taped trial of a person charged with armed robbery. Manipulations were contained in the prosecution witness's responses to detailed questioning by prosecution and defense attorneys. Although consistency is considered to be a key marker of accuracy, its impact on judgments was weak and nonsignificant. Witness confidence had a strong influence on judgments, whether testimony was consistent or inconsistent. We suggested that witness confidence may be more likely to emerge as a dominant influence on juror judgments when the testimony is wide ranging rather than relatively brief and concerned only with a specific issue (e.g., identification confidence).     

The resumption of Sino–Central Asian trade,c. 1983–94: confidence building and reform along a Cold War fault line

The resumption of trade across the Sino–Central Asian border in 1983 accompanied a gradual thaw in relations between China and the Soviet Union. This paper argues that: (1) Economic liberalization in China (alongside the Soviet Union) created a climate encouraging cross-border exchange. (2) Starting in 1983, improving relations between China and the Soviet Union permitted cross-border exchange in Central Asia; over the subsequent decade, trade volume served as a marker of bilateral relations. (3) Beginning in 1990, efforts by the Chinese leadership to accelerate reform in North-West China, coupled with the independence of Central Asian republics, led to a rapid increase in trade. Hence, the resumption of Sino–Central Asian trade was not grounded in meta-geographical projections – Silk Road, New Silk Road, Silk Road Economic Belt, Eurasian Continental Bridge – but determined by political and economic transitions in the two countries, accompanied by normalizing bilateral relations.