期望效用理论是现实生活的决策基础吗?——基于前景理论的反思

现代主流经济学将不确定下的决策建立在期望效用理论之上,但大量的行为或选择悖论却对期望效用理论提出了挑战.事实上,人类行为并非追求期望效用最大化,而是包含了对风险的规避;风险厌恶也并非是普遍定律,而是更为凸显损失厌恶;同一问题也并非有相同决策,而是受不同框架的影响;决策权重与概率也不同,存在非线性关系;心理买价和心理卖价也不同,存在明显的禀赋效应;人们的选择与其评价往往也不一致,会出现偏好逆转现象.基于这些悖论,卡尼曼等提出了前景理论,它比预期效用理论更贴近现实,也更有利于理解和解释现实行为.     

车文博先生对人本主义心理学研究的贡献

车文博先生是我国当代著名的理论心理学家和心理学史家。20世纪末期,在人本主义心理学的研究中取得了丰硕的成果,做出了卓越的理论贡献,主要表现在以下方面:深刻剖析了人本主义心理学的元理论及其内在的思想逻辑、科学评价了人本主义心理学的贡献与缺陷、客观探讨了人本主义心理学的未来走向及其发展趋势、独到阐释了人本主义心理学对当代心理学的影响、准确分析了人本主义心理学与后现代主义思潮的关系。车文博先生对人本主义心理学的研究产生了广泛而深远的影响。     

Political and Civic Engagement and Participation: Towards an Integrative Perspective

Abstract

This article presents an overview of current understandings in the study of political and civic engagement and participation, drawing in particular on innovations which have emerged from the Processes Influencing Democratic Ownership and Participation (PIDOP) project. For the purposes of the article, ‘engagement’ is defined as having an interest in, paying attention to, or having knowledge, beliefs, opinions, attitudes, or feelings about either political or civic matters, whereas ‘participation’ is defined in terms of political and civic participatory behaviours. The different forms that political and civic engagement and participation can take are outlined, and the factors that are related to different patterns of engagement and participation are reviewed. These factors operate at different levels, and include distal macro contextual factors, demographic factors, proximal social factors, and endogenous psychological factors. An integrative model covering all four levels of factors is outlined. Some findings from the secondary analysis of existing data-sets (including the European Social Survey and the International Social Survey Programme) in the PIDOP project are also reported. These findings show that engagement and participation vary as a function of complex interactions between macro, demographic, and psychological factors. It is argued that multi-level integrative theories, such as the one proposed in the current article, are required to understand the drivers of political and civic engagement and participation, and that policies and interventions aimed at enhancing citizens' levels of engagement and participation need to take this multi-level complexity into account.     

试析先秦儒家民本法律思想

在先秦时期的法律思想中,对后世最具积极影响的当是民本思想,它萌芽于殷周时期,形成于春秋战国时期.在先秦诸子百家中,宣扬民本思想最积极的则是儒家,其中又以孔子和孟子为儒家民本思想的代表人物.春秋战国时期,由于特殊的历史条件使得当时出现了各式各样的学说流派,在法律思想方面也呈现出了“百家争鸣”的局面.传统的民本思想,尤其是...     

乡村关系的民主效应分析

我国＂乡政村治＂格局下的乡村关系主要表现为乡镇政府与村委会之间的关系,实践中存在着＂行政化＂和＂放任型＂两种非正常、异化的乡村关系,影响了村民自治的实现。因此,有必要基于民主的视角,客观评价和分析上述两种乡村关系的正负效应,旨在提高其正效应,降低或避免其负效应,尽快建立法律文本设计的健康、理想的乡村关系,推进农村基层民主建设。     

INDIA’S DEMONETISATION: MODI’S ‘NUDGE’ TO CHANGE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

This article offers an account of the impact of Indian PM Narendra Modi’s decision in November 2016 to withdraw suddenly all Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes from circulation in India with the avowed intent of combatting fraud, tax avoidance and other economic problems. The article assesses the impact from the demonetisation in November to the March 2017 Indian regional elections, where wide-scale victories for Modi’s political party, the BJP, appear to have vindicated his reforms. The article provides an analysis of the political background of the period, as well as looking at the economic and societal impact of the changes, including the way in which the behaviour of Indian citizens has been ‘nudged’ with particular regard to use of banking, transactions, social effects, and payment of tax.     

Generation effects? Evolution of independence–unification views in Taiwan, 1996–2016

The landslide victory of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan's 2016 presidential and legislative elections is often interpreted as a persistent swing in attitudes toward cross-strait relations and Taiwan independence. Popular as this interpretation may be, it still runs the risk of mistaking a short-term reaction to a lame duck president's policy performance for a long-term change in attitudes.This study analyzes the evolution of independence–unification (IU) views in the Taiwan population from 1996 to 2016. After reviewing the literature on political generations in Taiwan, I hypothesize that a long-term cohort succession replacing older prounification generations accounted for the evolution toward proindependence views. By pooling six independent face-to-face surveys into repeated cross-sectional data, this study applies a comprehensive multilevel cross-classified random-effect model of age–period–cohort analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation results confirm that, besides age and period effects, younger cohorts and the 1999 Taiwan-centered high school curriculum have had significant effects on the change in trends in IU views.     

Only conservatives are voting in the rain: Evidence from German local and state elections

In this note, we use data from different elections in the German state of North-Rhine Westphalia between 1975 and 2010 to show that the Conservatives profit from lower voter turnout at the expense of the Social Democrats. We deal with the endogeneity of voter turnout by using election day rain as an instrumental variable. Our particular contribution is the comparison of municipal and state elections.     

Advanced Metering Infrastructure Deployment in the United States: The Impact of Polycentric Governance and Contextual Changes

Advanced metering infrastructure provides the first building block in smart grids by empowering customers and utilities with real‐time information regarding energy use. It is a key element in the U.S. government's push for electric grid modernization. Using a panel dataset for 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia over the years 2007–2012, we evaluate the impacts of a polycentric governance system and socioeconomic contexts on states' performance in smart metering deployment. We find that the advanced metering technological change in the United States has been exclusively created by the interdependencies and interactions between different layers of government. High‐tech industry is the only socioeconomic factor that has a negative impact on smart meter deployment, whereas other factors, such as pressures from energy consumers and environmental groups, and electric grid conditions, have negligible impacts.     

Electoral contexts that assist voter coordination: Ballot position effects in Poland

Hypothetically, in the open list PR system, all contestants, independently of their ballot position, have the same chance of winning a mandate. In practice, candidates placed at the top of the ballot enjoy a large surplus of votes. Their success can be explained by the primacy effect, in which the first ballot position acts as a focal point. The analysis of 6187 candidates running for the Polish Sejm in 2007 finds not only significant gains for top candidates, but that proximity to the upper end of the ballot likewise matters. It correspondingly discovers a weak benefit for candidates placed last on the list. Other sources of candidate advantage such as incumbency, capital city effect, age and gender are also investigated.