刑事司法视角下的国民预测可能性

作为刑法的精神内核,罪刑法定内含预测可能性原理,意图通过明文规定的犯罪与刑罚,克己守法的法官运用形式思维严格适用法律,使民众事先能够预测自己的行为性质,保障行动的自由.然而预测可能性原理实现前提的假设被证伪,刑法规范的模糊性与法律概念的类型化,使得法官适用法律时必然适当能动.同时,法官的法律思维与民众的日常思维存在较大...     

亚洲安全新格局的历史性建构*

冷战结束尤其是2014年后,美国对亚洲安全事务的影响和作用总体有所降低,中国参与、贡献和引领亚洲安全新格局构建的地位和作用上升。中国、美国及地区国家深度博弈,多数国家期待建立一个全面、有效、可被广泛接受的亚洲安全新格局。当前,亚洲安全格局存在着时空错位、理念分歧、结构冲突、机制分散等四大关联交互的突出问题,导致亚洲安全面临系统困境。从区域公共产品视角看,亚洲安全公共产品供求矛盾日益突出,亟待探索构建亚洲安全新格局。中国应抓住历史机遇,积极发挥在亚洲安全新格局建构中的角色作用,加强理念和方向引领,加强同世界主要力量在地区安全问题上的协调合作,妥善处理地区安全热点问题,加强文明交流互鉴,推动亚洲安全治理机制建设,大力推进亚洲安全合作,努力实现从安全公共产品的消费国向供给国转变,为自身建设发展营造良好外部环境,也为亚洲安全建设和构建亚洲命运共同体、迈向人类命运共同体贡献更大力量。     

China's aggressive ‘periphery diplomacy’ and South Korean perspectives

In this special section, the present article reviews South Korean perspectives on China's ‘periphery diplomacy’ with a focus on Chinese behaviour with respect to the East China Sea maritime territory and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). By analysing research papers published by various Korean research institutions and academic journals, this article demonstrates that most Korean scholars hold that as long as China's growth goes on, the tensions between the US and China are likely to intensify. The article also shows that one of the primary concerns of South Korean scholars lies in the question of how South Korea should respond to changing regional orders and a rising China. The article argues that South Korea's strategic dilemma is reflected in a regional structure in which competition between two great powers has recently forced the periphery to impose bilateral ties on.     

Washington's perceptions and misperceptions of Beijing's anti-access area-denial (A2-AD) ‘strategy’: implications for military escalation control and strategic stability

Washington has become increasingly concerned that Beijing's anti-access area-denial (A2-AD) capabilities will put at risk US military assets and forward forces operating in the Western Pacific region, enabling China to deter, delay and deny US intervention in future regional conflict and crisis. US defence analysts in their assessments have frequently, and often erroneously, conflated a Chinese operational capability with an underlying strategic intention that conceptualises the United States as its primary (if not sole) target. The central argument this article proffers is that US perceptions of A2-AD have been framed by specific analytical baselines that have overlooked the evolution of Chinese operational and doctrinal preferences, and over-reliant upon military material-based assessments to determine Beijing's strategic intentions, and formulate US military countervails. The article concludes that the strategic ambiguities and opacity associated with Chinese A2-AD capabilities and its ‘active defence’ concept reinforced Washington's reliance upon capacity-based assessments that in turn, exacerbated misperceptions confounded by cognitive bias of Chinese strategic intentions. The critical framing assumptions of this article draw heavily upon the ideas and rationale associated with the international relations ‘Security Dilemma’ concept.     

The Progressive Dilemma Revisited

In his book of the same title, David Marquand identified the progressive dilemma faced by many intellectuals since the beginning of the twentieth century as a question of whether it was better to work through a political party or through civil society to achieve reform. This dilemma was sharpened by the emergence of the Labour party as the main challenger to the Conservatives, because the party was so closely identified with the defence of a particular interest. This hindered the creation of the kind of broad electoral coalition that could win general elections. Throughout most of its history, Labour has failed to realise its promise and sustain reforming governments. In this article, the history of the Labour party over the past hundred years is outlined, in particular the three cycles 1931–51, 1951–79 and 1979–2010 and the divisions and recriminations that have followed each period in government. The current predicament of the party is then briefly assessed.     

浅谈治安调解的策略与艺术

治安案件调解是公安机关贯彻治安管理处罚法确立的“教育与处罚相结合”原则的具体体现。对于缩小治安管理处罚的处罚面,以平和的方式解决人民内部矛盾,避免矛盾激化,促成人际关系的和谐,维护社会治安秩序的稳定,构建和谐社会,具有独特的功能和作用。本文从剖析当前治安调解的困境及存在的突出问题入手,对治安调解的策略与艺术进行深入探讨,对于公安机关更为有效地开展治安调解,缓解纠纷,消除矛盾,促进警民关系,维护公安机关的执法形象具有一定的启迪作用。     

安全全球化的经济逻辑：以全球安全困境为例

当今世界，全球化出现了由经济全球化转向安全全球化的趋势，并存在进一步向“全球安全困境”坍缩的迹象。一些国家的政策开始由倾向于通过经济全球化带动增长，转向更多考虑国家安全因素并宁可为此牺牲经济效率，表现出更不相信开放、更不相信市场、战略竞争加码、供应链及支付网络安全化、军事投入及部署增加等特征。拯救全球化的根本之道在于通过突破性创新驱动的技术进步，将趋于疲弱的世界经济扭转至相对高速的增长轨道，让各国由“存量博弈”回归“增量博弈”。边疆或边缘地区具有打破常规、爆发出制度及科技等方面突破性创新的有利条件，但也存在特有的脆弱性。对一国而言，除应针对边疆地区出台大兴创新之风的鼓励政策外，还应当加强对其所承受的硬权力及软权力影响情况的监测和研判，在用好国际国内两个市场、两种资源的同时，须臾不可放松在软权力上的引致性投资，增强边疆地区的向心力，为其富有活力的突破性创新潜力的发挥创造安定团结的社会环境。     

安全不可分割：理论内涵与实现路径

安全不可分割是全球安全倡议的重要原则。这一概念经历了和平不可分割、欧洲安全不可分割、俄罗斯—大西洋安全不可分割以及全球安全不可分割四个发展阶段。其理论内核为主体间安全不可分割、安全风险复合体不可分割、全球安全社会不可分割；其实践主张包括自身安全与共同安全、传统安全与非传统安全、安全权利与安全义务以及安全与发展不可分割。全球安全倡议以“均衡、有效和可持续”为基本框架，通过威胁驱动、利益驱动和认同驱动促进全球安全不可分割，进而促进国际社会的普遍安全。安全不可分割原则体现了全球安全倡议的核心价值，是中国为世界和平、繁荣与稳定作出的重要贡献。     

安全困境、战略自主与风险偏好的惯性探究

为什么一个大国会从“风险规避型”偏好向“风险承担型”偏好转移？大国风险规避或风险承担的战略偏好并不总是与实力对比或战略环境相匹配,有时在现状收益递减或相对权力优势最大化时选择克制战略,却在仍处于现状收益递增或权力劣势时选择冒进战略。对于解释风险偏好的这一不确定性特征,可通过对国家战略自主性、战略动机、安全困境和风险偏好惯性等进行关联性考察,采取兼具体系变量与单元变量的综合路径,探究非本意的系统效应结果。通过对近代欧洲多极体系与美苏冷战两极体系的结构性和进程性考察,验证了自利德尔.哈特到保罗.肯尼迪的目标—手段的动态平衡对大国应对战略风险的重要性,并在一定程度上丰富了战略自主性与风险偏好的惯性研究。     

抗战前后新启蒙思潮的“中国化”转向及运行困境

受特殊运行环境的激发，新启蒙思潮开启了由“西化”向“中国化”的转型尝试。然而，思想启蒙的实现程度，总是取决于它满足该国家需要的程度。由于对民族文化特别是儒家传统救国意义的过分迷恋和畸形阐发，新启蒙思潮没能形成对中国国情的全面把握，其“中国化”话语出现了批判意识与保守情结、“济天下”与“善其身”、文化包容与权威整合、民族觉醒与个性解放等关系的调处困境，最终在继承与超越、传统与现代等一系列博弈斗争中，左右摇摆、顾此失彼，没能形成对中国化进程的系统推动。当前，“中国化”话语的建构应在马克思主义的指导下，依托民众主体力量，着眼于现实实践的主题变化，充分激发社会主义制度优势，才能超越对旧传统的过分纠葛，开拓出更为广阔的创新前景。