农民人权与农村发展的博弈论方法:策略、结局、效用

"三农问题"是国人目前普遍关注热点,农村发展没有质的进步,农民人权保障缺失,农民人权与农村发展双双步入困境。农民人权是农村发展的目的,也是农村发展的手段;农村发展以农民人权为根本出发点和落脚点。基于二者的极大关联性,引入博弈论分析方法是可行的、也是必要的。在博弈模型中,"策略"是对农民人权与农村发展的行为假设。经过纯策略和混合策略的博弈,农民人权与农村发展达成一种利益均衡的契约,这种契约产生的合作共赢的结果,称为"结局"。而对这种结局进行评价称为"效用",表现为以农民人权度量农村发展的评价标准体系。     

权力视角下的公共行政模式演化路径研究——一个基于演化博弈的分析框架

本文在拓展卢克斯"权力维度"概念的基础上,构建了政治域中的主观博弈模型和不同域之间的演化博弈模型来探讨公共行政模式演化的一般路径,并通过分析公共行政模式演化路径背后政府与公民及官僚两两博弈,得出权力维度背后公共行政模式演化的一般规律:随着政治域中政府与公民及官僚间内在博弈规则的改变和不同域中共时性关联和历时性关联的演化,政府对公民及官僚权力维度将向纵深化发展。最后,提出了公共行政模式演化规律的几个命题及其对我国行政模式改革与发展的启示。     

任务型组织的动态能力建构

在社会复杂性和不确定性迅速增长的时代,考察组织相对于环境变动的动态能力显得尤其重要。在组织能力的问题上,常规组织往往着重于组织的静态能力建设,而对其动态能力则很少给予关注。与常规组织不同,任务型组织要求发展出一种动态能力。这种动态能力虽然表现为一种与环境相适应的能力,而实际上则是一种更快更好地完成任务的能力。     

Level Two Negotiations: Helping the Other Side Meet Its “Behind‐the‐Table” Challenges

A long analytic tradition has explored the challenge of productively synchronizing “internal” with “external” negotiations, with a special focus on how each side can best manage internal opposition to agreements negotiated “at the table.” Implicit in much of this work has been the view that each side's leadership is best positioned to manage its own internal conflicts, often by pressing for deal terms that will overcome internal objections and by effectively “selling” the agreement to key constituencies. Far less frequently have analysts considered how each side can help the other side with its “behind‐the‐table” barriers to successful agreement. Following Robert Putnam's two‐level games schema, I characterize such “behind‐the‐table” or “Level Two” barriers more broadly, offer several innovative examples of how each side can help the other overcome them, and develop more general advice on doing so most effectively. As a fuller illustration of a Level Two negotiator helping the other side with its formidable behind‐the‐table challenges, I pay special attention to the end‐of‐Cold‐War negotiations over German reunification in which former American Secretary of State James Baker played a key role.     

我国法院调解制度的博弈分析--再论调审分离

法院调解中双方当事人之间的讨价还价过程可以被模型化为一个不完全信息动态博弈,运用博弈理论分别考察在调审分离与调审合一两种情况下双方当事人的和解情况,可以得出调审分离更有利于提高调解的成功率的结论.此外,要提高和解的成功率,不但相关事实的查明是必要的,而且法院也不应该按同一个标准收费.     

Using "Shocks and Rumors" to Teach Adaptive Thinking

The business landscape is constantly changing. Moreover, because of globalization, increased competition, and instant communication, the rate of change is accelerating. A student who has practiced only static scenarios is ill prepared to recognize, process, or adapt to changing negotiation issues and interests. Thus, negotiation instructors must change our practices to prepare students to succeed in the increasingly dynamic negotiation situations they will face by utilizing simulations that are also dynamic. This article reviews research on adaptive thinking, applies it to negotiation training, and provides examples of dynamic simulations that require students to adapt. Finally, it offers advice on how to make existing cases dynamic by using "shocks and rumors."     

信访制度的历史演进:一个功能论的视角

实践永无止境,创新永无止境,研究永无止境。从历史的角度探讨信访制度的道路,寻求信访制度变迁的过程及其所遇困难的根源,对当前信访制度的改革具有极其重要的现实意义。     

Forensic Analysis of Digital Dynamic Signatures: New Methods for Data Treatment and Feature Evaluation

This study explored digital dynamic signatures containing quantifiable dynamic data. The change in data content and nature necessitates the development of new data treatment approaches. A SignPad Omega digitizing tablet was used to assess measurement reproducibility, as well as within‐writer variation and the occurrence of correctly simulated features. Measurement reproducibility was found to be high except for pressure information. Within‐writer variation was found to be higher between days than on a same day. Occurrence of correct simulation was low for features such as signature size, trajectory length, and total signature time. Feature discrimination factors combining within‐writer variability and the occurrence of correctly simulated features were computed and show that signature size, trajectory length, and signature time are the features that perform the best for discriminating genuine from simulated signatures. A final experiment indicates that dynamic information can be used to create connections between simulation cases.     

博弈的伦理意蕴

博弈中的人们追求利益的最大化,但是博弈中也有伦理道德的存在。博彝中的行为者只有遵循道德法则行事,尊重自由、平等、民主以及正义的原则,使博弈双方互为目的和手段,这样才能达到共赢,实现自我价值和共同幸福的目标。对博弈与伦理的这种关系进行探讨,有助于我们更深刻地认识博弈中的伦理意蕴,更好地实现个人价值、个人利益与社会公共道德、公共利益的统一。     

辩诉交易的博弈分析--以囚徒困境为例

辩诉交易制度以抗辩式审判方式、法官居中裁判为制度基础,辩诉交易是控诉方与辩护方出于理性作出的行为,通过博弈论对辩诉交易进行分析,可以更好的理解辩诉交易在审理取证困难的疑难案件时,虽然不理想但却十分必要,是退而求其次的在公正与效率间寻求博弈均衡,是提高诉讼效益之必要方式.