The criminal career: Estimates of the duration and frequency of crime commission

This paper deals with measuring two dimensions of the criminal career: residual duration and frequency. It reports results from estimating the parameters of a model in which offenders have a probability of desisting from further participation in crime following a conviction and, if they persist, a rate of crime commission. The probability of desisting and the rate of commission are seen as varying with offenders' personal characteristics and criminal records. Moreover, this paper discusses the difficulty of estimating models in which failure to commit a new crime might be attributable either to termination of the criminal career or to a censored follow-up period. The paper reports both successful and unsuccessful estimation attempts and discusses complications when distinguishing empirically between duration and frequency.     

Survival models of recidivism among juvenile delinquents

Among juveniles, the probability of recidivism has a curvilinear relationship to age. Rates of reoffending do not simply increase or decrease with age, but rather, they increase as a function of age up to a certain point of peak activity and decrease with increasing age thereafter. Because of this, the forms of recidivism functions between cohorts of widely varying ages will differ considerably. This renders inapplicable one model for the analysis of recidivism rates which assumes proportional hazards (Cox proportional hazards regression models). Appropriate models will posit curved nonmonotonic hazard functions. This paper compares fits of the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal models to recidivism data collected on samples of chronic juvenile offenders and finds generally closer estimation of the recidivism functions using the latter model. Implications for the development of models of recidivism are discussed.     

Stochastic models for analyzing Criminal Careers

The recent National Research Counci! Panel on Research on Criminal Careers (Blumsteinet al., 1986) identified the following as one of its items for future research: ... changes in the model [for analyzing criminal careers] are needed to reflect the consequences of the considerable heterogeneity in the values of A. This paper discusses the range of stochastic models available that take account of variations in A that occur during an individual offender's career, variations in A between different types of offenders, and both forms of variation simultaneously. Together these models are a flexible and powerful tool for studying criminal careers. For completeness, failure rate regression models are also briefly described.     

Two items of evidence, no putative source: an inference problem in forensic intelligence

Intelligence analysts commonly associate cases on the basis of similarities found in compared characteristics of scientific evidence. The present paper studies some of the inferential difficulties associated with such operations. An analysis is proposed that breaks down the reasoning process into inference to common source, and inference to case linkage. The former requires an approach to the difficulty associated with evaluating the similarities of items of evidence from different cases with no putative source being available. The latter requires consideration to be given to the relevance of evidence. Throughout the paper, probability theory is used to describe the nature of the proposed inferences. Graphical models are also introduced with the aim of providing further insight into the dependence and independence relationships assumed to hold among the various propositions considered. Notions from decision theory are used to discuss ways in which intelligence analysts may assist investigators in deciding whether or not cases should be considered as linked.     

Age-cohort analysis of arrest rates

Logistic regressions of age-period-cohort models for city arrest rates are estimated with data from seven U.S. cities for the years 1970–1980 to study the dependence of officially designated criminality in select offense categories on age. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine how dependent the findings are on details of model specification.     

Extending the Study of Continuity and Change: Gender Differences in the Linkage Between Adolescent and Adult Offending

Recently, Paternoster etal. used data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a longitudinal study of 411 South London boys mostly born in 1953, to investigate the linkage between adolescent and adult offending and found that variations in adult offending were consistent with a random process after conditioning on adolescent offending. In this paper, we test the robustness of this early study across data sources and genders. Here, we use data from the Dunedin New Zealand 1972 birth cohort study to replicate previous findings regarding stability and change in criminal offending between the adolescent and adult years. In particular, our interest centers on the stochastic properties of the adolescent and adult conviction distribution in the cohort and whether the structure of this distribution is similar for males and females. This replication and extension of prior work is especially important since criminologists have little understanding of the pattern of female adolescent offending or how the patterns are linked to adult offending for women. The analysis reveals that variation in adult offending after conditioning on adolescent offending is consistent with a random (Poisson) process. Furthermore, this pattern is evident for both the males and the females in the Dunedin New Zealand 1972 birth cohort.     

Desistance or Displacement? The Changing Patterns of Offending from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

Research has devoted substantial attention to patterns of offending during the transition to early adulthood. While changes in offending rates are extensively researched, considerably less attention is devoted to shifts in the type of offending displayed during the transition to adulthood. Changes in the type of offending behavior suggest a pattern of “displacement” or shifts between various types of crime, rather than desistance from deviant behavior. In this paper, I integrate methods previously developed in stratification research and use longitudinal data from the National Survey of Youth that span the transition to adulthood to examine the extent to which desistance and displacement of deviant behavior are defining attributes of offending during the transition to early adulthood. The findings indicate that while desistance is clearly present, altering patterns of offending, or within-person displacement, rather than termination of illicit activity is most evident in the data.

让“标杆成为标准,示范成为规范”的实践路径思考

"让标杆成为标准,示范成为规范"是发挥典型示范效应的目标要求,也是选树宣传典型的根本目的所在。如何"让标杆成为标准,示范成为规范",是宣传思想文化工作面临的新课题,需要扎实做好实践路径研究。坚持"三个注重"选树典型,发挥"三个作用"培养典型,把握"三个环节"宣传典型是胜利油田思想文化工作趟出的新路子。     

Ageing and generational effects on vote choice: Combining cross-sectional and panel data to estimate APC effects

This paper examines how ageing and generational formative experiences affect vote choices in Britain. Using a combination of panel data and assumptions about party fortunes we estimate ageing effects. These are then entered into a model using cross-sectional data from 1964 to 2010 to estimate generational differences in vote choice. Ageing increases the likelihood of a Conservative vote substantially, but there is no trend towards lower rates of Conservative voting among newer generations. There are however identifiable political generations corresponding with periods of Conservative dominance: voters who came of age in the 1930s, 1950s and 1980s are ceteris paribus somewhat more Conservative. Our method therefore lends some support to theories of political generations, but also demonstrates the considerable impact of ageing on vote choice.     

Ethel Bright Ashford: more and less than a role model

ABSTRACT

There is a tendency to position the first women lawyers as role models for today’s young women. This article argues, through an exploration of the life and career of Ethel Bright Ashford, that these women are better recognised as pioneers or foremothers than promoted as role models. Ashford was one of the first women barristers, a long-serving borough councillor, and tireless activist for civic causes. Nonetheless, aspects of her career and politics pose problems for purely celebratory accounts. Yet there is real value in considering her biography: she offers both an alternative definition of a successful professional life and the reassurance that imperfection is not equivalent to failure. Ashford therefore illustrates the vital importance of a more nuanced and historically situated consideration of the first women lawyers.