社会治理创新的结果差异研究--基于多项目实践过程的实证分析

从"主体-客体"分析视角出发,构建地方政府、社会力量、创新项目三个维度的社会治理创新结果影响因素研究模型,通过采用多值定性比较分析方法对30个社会治理创新案例进行分析,探究影响社会治理创新结果差异的因素及路径模式。研究发现:社会治理创新结果差异是多种因素的交叠效应;项目影响力是社会治理创新结果差异的基础性条件;公民参与对社会治理创新结果差异影响不显著;稳定存续型、内生动力持久型、阶段性目标主导型和治理效果不佳型是影响社会治理创新结果差异的主要路径模式。     

Incorporating Co-offending in Sentencing Models: An Analysis of Fines Imposed on Antitrust Offenders

Analyses of sentencing (and other criminal justice processes such as the decision to prosecute, plea bargaining, and contact with the police) often use the isolated individual as the unit of analysis. However, the criminal justice system often processes either offenses or court cases rather than persons. If court cases always involved one individual, this would have little impact. However, offenses involving co-offending—two or more persons acting together—comprise a substantial proportion of criminal activity (Reiss, 1980, 1986). Depending on the prevalence of co-offending, it may be very likely that two or more individuals involved in the same case will be selected as members of the same sample of criminal justice or criminological data. Unless it can be shown that both the individual-level variables of co-offenders and their error terms are mutually independent, analyses based on methods such as ordinary least-squares multiple regression would violate the underlying assumptions of such models. However, alternatives to linear models assuming either type of independence are available. Among the most useful of these are mixed models, specifically those assuming compound symmetry. This is illustrated with an analysis of fines imposed on criminally convicted antitrust offenders. These models may yield results which are substantially different than those from models which ignore co-offending. In a model of fines imposed on antitrust offenders, models which ignore co-offending generally overstate both estimates and statistical significance of offense-level variables and understate those of offender-level variables.     

Unemployment,imprisonment, and the stability of punishment hypothesis: Some results using cointegration and error correction models

A version of the stability of punishment hypothesis is used to illustrate the concept of cointegration and its relationship to error correction models. The hypothesis is then tested and rejected using data from England and Wales. Finally, a dynamic time-series model relating imprisonment to convictions, crime, and Unemployment is developed and tested.The empirical results in this work are based upon those originally prepared for a paper to be given by the author and Steve Box at the meeting of the American Society of Criminology held in Montreal in November 1987. Steve Box died in September 1987 before it could be completed.The paper is dedicated to his memory and it is hoped that he would have approved its content, if not, perhaps, the dryness of its form.     

Party survival in parliament: Explaining party durability in lower-house parliaments

Approximately 70 per cent of the parties emerging in the post-Second World War era failed to keep their seats in parliament. Party survival is an important issue, especially in parliamentary democracies, where parties are the means through which voters’ preferences are linked to government policy outputs. Using an event history modeling framework, and data from 37 democracies, covering 830 parties, this article analyses two questions regarding party durability. First, when do parties fail? Second, which parties survive longer? The article shows that most parties fail at the beginning of their lifespan, and disappear before the end of their fourth term in parliament. Moreover, it is found that moderate policy position, distinct ideology and participation in governing coalitions increase the duration of party survival, even when controlling for party size. This article contributes to the extensive literature about the electoral benefits of ideological moderation and distinct policy positions by showing the long-term benefits of these factors. Moreover, the long-term benefit of party participation in government in terms of survival overcomes the short-term cost of ruling.     

Debunking the myth of a “Traditional” gender gap in the electoral support for Silvio Berlusconi in Italy (1994–2013)

Despite increasing gender realignment in voting behavior of most Western democracies, women are usually believed to have disproportionally supported Silvio Berlusconi's right-wing party in Italy. Using a pooled dataset based on six post-election surveys (one for each general election between 1994 and 2013), we find only spurious evidence for such a traditional gender gap in voting. Going beyond a mere “gender gap” approach, we then look for possible intra-gender differentiation. We find that housewives tend to present those attitudes – voting for the center-right, more leader-oriented –, which were traditionally imputed to “women”. Showing the importance of this “intra-gender occupational gap”, we conclude that heterogeneity among women should be taken more seriously by research that combines gender and electoral studies.     

Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.     

Circulación de modelos y centralidad de los códigos civiles en el derecho privado latinoamericano

This work presupposes the existence of a family of laws which can be situated in the extensive system of codified laws based on the Roman tradition, and within it a Latin American group, and seeks to organize the material within the context in which it has been produced, with the aim of achieving greater comprehension of the formation of the private law in Latin America, highlighting the models and influences used, the intervention of jurists and the significance it took on for the different societies, the characteristics of the mentioned process and the causes for its early or tardy consolidation.     

跨域治理的概念谱系与研究模型

跨域治理是指跨域事务的利益相关者，为了实现公共目标和解决共同危机所展开的合作与管理活动。在阐释跨域治理概念谱系的基础上，讨论了跨域治理的过程、结构与整合模型，以期从文献整理分析的角度对跨域治理进行深入的理解和探讨，并展望跨域治理研究的发展方向及前景。     

关于开展法哲学研究的几个重要问题

文章阐述了法哲学研究的意义,概述了近20年来我国在该领域的主要成果和不足,提出了为构建中国当代法哲学有可供选择的三种研究方式,论述了并应处理好诸如指导思想与理论内容、传统与现实、国际化与本土化等的关系。