刑法因果关系判断路径的选择简

刑法中的因果关系的理解与分析,应采取归因与归责的相分离模式,在归因阶段采取条件理论作为判断标准已达成共识,而在归责阶段则主要存在修正的条件理论、相当因果关系理论以及客观归责理论.本文认为在归因阶段应采取合法则的条件说,在归责阶段则通过对实行行为、违法性阻却事由等犯罪论理论的运用具体判断是否进行归责.同时认为,应在归因判断时强调事实存疑时有利于被告人的原则.     

Space-Time Granger Analysis of the War in Iraq: A Study of Coalition and Insurgent Action-Reaction

We investigate insurgent-coalition interaction using the WikiLeaks dataset of Iraq war logs 2004–2009. After a review of existing theoretical interventions on the dynamics of insurgency and presenting a baseline model of violent events, we test a conceptual model of reciprocity using an innovative space-time Granger causality technique. Our estimation procedure retains predicted probabilities of reaction in response to a previous opponent's action across different temporal and spatial configurations in Iraq and in Baghdad. Our conclusions about conflict in Iraq are based on these profiles of risk—what we call space-time signatures. We find strong evidence of “tit-for-tat” associations between coalition/Iraq forces on one side and insurgents/militants on the other. Specifically, we find that the action-reaction association varies strongly by majority ethnic region across Iraq and in Baghdad, by urban and nonurban location, and within Sunni-dominated areas, by district income. While violence is strongly temporally dependent in the same location, the effect of distance varies significantly across the different subsets of the Iraq data.     

Probing the Democratic Peace Argument Using Linguistic Fuzzy Logic

Did disputes between non-great powers in the New World, 1816–1989, escalate to war if the disputes involved roughly equal sides or not? Metaphorically and practically, “balances of power” are about measurement, but many of the usual measures prove to be incorrect. Proper assessments of the balances of fighting power qualify counts of the material resources by considering the political-organizational capacity of the state to employ what is counted, the geopolitical location and logistics, and what bystander states might do if the dispute were to escalate. A modest correlation exists between rough equality in power capabilities and war, not peace, in the Americas, 1816–1989. A bare majority of the wars in the Americas from 1816 until 1989 were fought between equal sides, and equal disputants were thirteen times more likely to escalate to war than non-equals were. This relationship found among non-great powers is much less strong than the relationship found among the great powers.     

"好意施惠关系"中的责任承担--从《楼上楼下》的个案角度分析

<今日说法>中播出的真实案例<楼上楼下>是日常生活中常见的好人好事引起的纠纷.以该真实案例为模型,作者对其进行理论上的分析和研讨,系统地分析了"好意施惠关系"在法律上的认定以及施惠人承担责任的请求权基础,是一次生活场景对法律生命的考量.     

福建省技术进步对经济增长的影响机制分析

根据中国经济增长的实际情况,把技术进步分解为内在技术进步和外在技术进步两个方面。利用计量模型从短期和长期两个角度来分析内在技术进步、外在技术进步与经济增长三者之间的关系。基于福建省1987年至2009年的数据,对这三个变量进行协整关系分析、格兰杰因果关系分析和在VAR模型基础上的脉冲响应函数分析以及方差分解分析。实证分析结果显示：不论从长期看还是从短期看,福建省内在技术进步对经济增长的拉动作用比福建省外在技术进步要大。     

论因果关系推定在行政赔偿诉讼中的应用——兼论行政不作为赔偿因果关系的认定

由于行政不作为的特殊性以及国家赔偿因果关系制度的滞后性,要证明行政不作为与损害结果之间的因果关系显得异常困难。因此,合理确定行政不作为赔偿诉讼中因果关系的认定规则,对及时公正处理行政赔偿纠纷具有重要的意义。要构建行政不作为赔偿因果关系的认定机理,需要引入因果关系推定学说理论,并与司法实务操作相适应,完善我国国家赔偿因果关系制度。     

Specifying the Relationship Between Crime and Prisons

There is no scholarly consensus as to the proper functional form of the crime equation, particularly with regard to one critical, explanatory variable—prison population. The critical questions are whether crime and prison rates must be differenced, whether they are cointegrated, and whether they are simultaneously determined—whether crime and prison cause one another. To determine the proper specification, different researchers have applied unit-root, cointegration, and Granger tests to very similar data sets and obtained very different results. This has led to very different specifications and predictably different implications for public policy. These differences are more likely to be due to the methods used, rather than to real differences among the data sets. When the best available methods are used to identify the proper specification for a panel of U.S. states, results are fairly clear. Crime rates and prison populations are close to unit-root; crime and prison are not cointegrated; crime clearly affects subsequent prison populations. Thus the best specification of the crime equation must rely on differenced data and instrumental variables. Alternative specifications run a substantial risk of spurious results.

大陆法系刑法因果关系论的巡历 --兼论我国相关理论的发展

评析大陆法系刑法因果关系中的条件说、原因说、相当因果关系说、客观归责论。在我国传统的刑法因果关系研究中,必然因果关系说和偶然因果关系说并不足以解释其因果关系,应将客观归责论引入我国刑法理论。     

论我国刑法对结果加重犯的处罚原则

结果加重犯是我国刑法中争议较大的一个问题。本文通过论述对结果加重犯处罚的客观与主观基础 ,认为我国刑法对结果加重犯的处罚应同时具备两个条件 :即客观上行为人的犯罪行为与加重结果具有法律上的因果关系 ,主观上行为人对加重结果的发生具有过失。     

民法典离婚损害赔偿制度法律适用的疑难问题

离婚损害赔偿在性质上属离异损害赔偿,与夫妻间侵权责任彼此独立但存在一定的交叉。《民法典》第1091条新增"其他重大过错"的范围应以是否严重违反家庭义务或家庭伦理,以至于威胁到共同生活的可能性作为判断标准。重大过错行为与离婚之间因果关系的认定应采推定原则。离婚赔偿范围仅指因离婚造成的精神损害,而不包括财产损害;离婚精神损害赔偿金数额的确定应将与婚姻家庭有关的特殊因素纳入考量范畴。为避免双重赔偿与过度惩罚,在司法实践中,应注意离婚损害赔偿制度与离婚财产分割之照顾无过错方原则以及夫妻间侵权责任制度的协调适用。